Hurricane Beryl

[Stratton20]

Timing of the trough and the ridge will be key, we will have better confidence on wednesday/ thursday,

[Stormlover2020]

Ridge looking stronger on these runs

[Rip76]

'57 said that ridge would be pretty strong.

[Stormlover2020]

Ridge looking stout on gfs also

[sambucol]

When will the recon data be fed into the model runs?

[Stratton20]

Its already in these runs, though their is definitely still time for this to shift again, we really wont know for certain until wednesday/ thursday

[sambucol]

Is there an eye wall replacement happening? Heard there was, but not sure it’s accurate.

[Stratton20]

CMC weak hurricane- brownsville, takes more of a NW trajectory across the NW tip of the yucatan, lets see what the euro shows in a few hours

[Scott747]

When will the recon data be fed into the model runs?

Some of the low level data probably made it into the 18z runs, but for sure in the 0z runs. Upper level synoptic missions aren't scheduled till Tuesday.

Either way the 0z runs so far have been a significant shift towards what the Euro has been showing.

[Stratton20]

I would love a solution like the canadian , moderate TS into s texas, but does get yanked enough inland to bring more widespread heavy rain to central texas

[biggerbyte]

So Ken's 5 in San Antonio disagrees with the high pressure staying in place. He says even though the models want to push Beryl into Mexico, this high moving away open up the Gulf to Texas..

I personally think we need a system in the gulf, and then look at steering mechanisms then. This flipping and flopping is too much for people to cypher through day after day. Folks don't know what they should do.

As always, keep an eye on the forecast and make no assumptions. We all learned that lesson very quickly with Ike.

[Stratton20]

GEPS ensemble trended more NW by a decent margin

[Stratton20]

Big shift N-NW on the 00z EPS, more members being influenced by the trough

[DoctorMu]

https://youtu.be/63tDALdA5tU?si=1Glwri6pt0W9Xw9r

[Stratton20]

Big shift North on the ICON 06z, definitely a much weaker ridge

[djmike]

IMG_2168.png

Well that may be the biggest shift south! This run looks to be a stout high to remain in place over Texas. I know modes will continue to flip back and forth for a few more days, but this southern trend is looking less likely for a Texas anything! JMO!

[Stratton20]

The south trend may be starting to reverse, GFS 06z has a weaker ridge, went from buried in BOC to northern mexico

[Andrew]

Is there an eye wall replacement happening? Heard there was, but not sure it’s accurate.

Yes, EWRC is currently happening. It will be close for Grenada and the other Windward Islands if this completes before landfall. Recon missions currently in the storm plus satellite data indicate the storm is re-intensifying.

[tireman4]

Hurricane Beryl this morning

[tireman4]

Jeff Lindner 07 01 24