2011 ATL Hurricane Season: Coming to an End

[srainhoutx]

Well if nothing else, the GFS has been very persistent in 'sniffing' out an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. The 06Z run continues that trend. While we all know it is in fantasy range and should not be taken with nothing more than a grain of salt, we are seeing a Kelvin wave approaching and just perhaps there may be a bit of validity to the longer range la la land GFS.

[Andrew]

Well if nothing else, the GFS has been very persistent in 'sniffing' out an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche. The 06Z run continues that trend. While we all know it is in fantasy range and should not be taken with nothing more than a grain of salt, we are seeing a Kelvin wave approaching and just perhaps there may be a bit of validity to the longer range la la land GFS.

It continues:



You can also see the how influential the ridge will remain for the next week at least.

[srainhoutx]

Looking at the long range Eurosip issued today, lower pressures and a bit above regarding precip suggests an active Caribbean and Gulf during August, September and October...

The attachment 06152011 Eurosip Pressures Tropics_ensemble32mean_mean32sea32level32pressure_232months.gif is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

There are hints from the UKEMT MJO chart that we may be headed toward a favorable pattern for tropical development as we head toward the end of June. While the GFS and Euro have been stalling and keeping things weak in phase 4, a trend has developed with those two models as they are now trending toward the UKMET solution. We will see.

[srainhoutx]

I'd keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche area later next week and on into the end of June. A pattern change from a very persistent dry Upper Ridge to very deep tropical moisture pooling in the Western Basin appears to be on the horizon. There does appear to be an uptick in potential activity as a Kelvin wave and an MJO pulse moves into the region. A little 'home grown' spin up in that region would not be surprising as we head to toward the end of the month, IMO. At the very least, perhaps some badly needed rainfall for a very drought parched Gulf region is ahead.

[singlemom]

Wouldn't you know it....we have Scout camp scheduled for the last week of June. Of course, that probably means "drought: more of the same." lol

[Andrew]

Really interesting to see the persistent nature of the gfs with this "system". Many times we have seen the gfs paint these ghost systems but the tracks are usually pretty erratic. The gfs on the other hand has this system forming in the BOC due to a tropical surge from both the gulf and the pacific and has been consistent with this development . As a result the "system" gets stalled in the Boc for a little while, and other models including the Euro are showing very little shear in the area. This could lead to some possible development but how close it is to land could really determine that. Overall I think next week we need to keep and eye down south to see what (if anything) develops as it could head north as the ridge seems to break down around that time frame. Unfortunately the ridge seems to want to move back east so timing will be an issue also. Still too many questions to say anything right now especially with the drought we are in but lets keep our fingers crossed for the best. Also like Ed said it is June it is going to be a long season. Enjoy the downtime while you still have it as I suspect in September we will all be asking for some of it.

[srainhoutx]

Looking further E, a rather robust convective complex splashed down in the E Atlantic overnight and the are even hints of a spin. While it is too soon to be looking for any Cape Verde systems, one can see that activity continues to roll off Africa and TPW suggests moisture is increasing across the Basin as we head toward the end of June...

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS remains very insistent on developing a TD/TS and moving it N into the Lower TX Coast near the King Ranch. Edit to add the Canadian is now depicting an area of low pressure in the Western Gulf, so maybe a bit more credence to what the GFS has been sniffing for days. We will see.

[unome]

HGX' graphics are a bit uplifting !

[srainhoutx]

Many will recall that TS Allison (2001) as well as TS Hermine (2010) were remants of EPAC disturbances that crossed over into the Bay Of Campeche and developed. Just an FYI for those that may not know.

[Ptarmigan]

Many will recall that TS Allison (2001) as well as TS Hermine (2010) were remants of EPAC disturbances that crossed over into the Bay Of Campeche and developed. Just an FYI for those that may not know.

The October 1949 Hurricane that hit Texas was also from East Pacific.

[Andrew]

The gfs continues to paint a wet week next week as both the moisture from the gulf and the front interact creating some widely scattered showers through the week. Interesting to note the consistent surface feature that the gfs creates in the gulf but the lack of steering currents keep it bouncing around in the gulf. The 00z was not as promising as the 18z but it still showed a good amount of moisture for our area. More to come soon.

[Rip76]

What's the latest on this...?

[srainhoutx]

Strong westerly shear will keep development in check, but some beneficial rains look to be in the offing for TX/LA Coastal regions this week. The flare up is due to a combination of a Kelvin wave, shear axis and a tropical wave nearing the Central American Coast.

[srainhoutx]

The GFS has advertised for days in the longer range that the Bay of Campeche may need to be watched for future development. While this is not for the coming week, the 12Z Euro has also joined in and now suggests an area of low pressure will be in the BoC. This would somewhat coincide with an MJO pulse that the UKMET has suggested and may be worth watching. We will see.

The attachment 06182011 12Z Euro Allan Site 12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP240.gif is no longer available

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro continues to advertise a tropical distubance in the longer range for the Western Gulf. The GFS is now hinting the same. Perhaps the models are latching onto TC genesis for later in June...

[wxman57]

Doesn't look so much like TC genesis as just some moisture tracking north to TX/LA. Shear is still forecast to be a bit high in the central to northern Gulf. I will take a little rain minus the hurricane threat.

[srainhoutx]

Here are the 850 charts off Allan's site...

[srainhoutx]

Doesn't look so much like TC genesis as just some moisture tracking north to TX/LA. Shear is still forecast to be a bit high in the central to northern Gulf. I will take a little rain minus the hurricane threat.

As long as we keep in a bit of a wetter pattern, I think we'll all be a bit happier...minus the wind, of course...