May 2023

[don]

Tuesday is beginning to look really interesting around here.

Yep models are developing a surface low that moves slowly north through the area with some very heavy rain associated with it.Some models even show a feeder band like setup once the surface low is north of us mid week.

[Stratton20]

Yeah that will be intriguing to watch, the CMC even has a secondary surface low forming which explains its really high rain fall totals, lots to watch

[don]

12Z EURO showing the surface low taking shape on Tuesday.Then moving into north Texas and becoming a tropical like low with a feeder band draped over the area.

Screenshot 2023-05-07 at 13-17-19 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

.

Screenshot 2023-05-07 at 13-16-55 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-05-07 at 13-17-42 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

[Cpv17]

12Z EURO showing the surface low taking shape on Tuesday.Then moving into north Texas and becoming a tropical like low with a feeder band draped over the area.Screenshot 2023-05-07 at 13-17-19 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png.Screenshot 2023-05-07 at 13-16-55 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-07 at 13-17-42 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

The RGEM shows this too.

[Stratton20]

12z Euro coming in much more aggressive now, 6-8 inches widespread with multiple 10+ inch bullseyes

[don]

12Z EURO showing the surface low taking shape on Tuesday.Then moving into north Texas and becoming a tropical like low with a feeder band draped over the area.Screenshot 2023-05-07 at 13-17-19 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png.Screenshot 2023-05-07 at 13-16-55 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.pngScreenshot 2023-05-07 at 13-17-42 Models ECMWF Hi-Res — Pivotal Weather.png

The RGEM shows this too.

Yep

Screenshot 2023-05-07 at 14-07-41 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot 2023-05-07 at 14-08-02 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

[Cpv17]

12z Euro coming in much more aggressive now, 6-8 inches widespread with multiple 10+ inch bullseyes

Could end up being more of a south and central Texas event but still too far out to determine that.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 its looking better for our neck of the woods, everyone should get at least 1-3 inches over the next 7-10 days, I do agree with you though where that heavy feeder band will set up is anyones guess right now, but potential is their for some hefty totals across the area

[brazoriatx]

When is this suppose to kick off?

[Stratton20]

Big increase in QPF amounts from the WPC

[jasons2k]

Speaking of training bands….

[Cpv17]

Speaking of training bands….

Yep. I’m in it.

[Cpv17]

When is this suppose to kick off?

Tuesday.

[davidiowx]

Speaking of training bands….

Yep. I’m in it.

Me too. It’s been amazing all day except when the power went out for an hour or so during a windy storm around 11 this morning. Luckily it was only 73 outside so it wasn’t a big deal. I’ll take this all summer long

[Cpv17]

The 12z EPS is bananas:



5-8” across southeast TX over the next couple weeks.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 its been a long time since we have seen ensemble guidance put up rainfall totals like that

[DoctorMu]

The 12z EPS is bananas:



5-8” across southeast TX over the next couple weeks.

A lot of that is in the 8-14 day range. We'll see.

NWS is in general agreement that it will be wetter than normal, but not striking. I like to cool part. More clouds!

[DoctorMu]

The 6-10 day outlooks also call for cooler than normal as well, more rainy, especially in South Texas. With a surface low, it depends on the setup. Watch for streaming Gulf moisture and rain bands on the east side.

Clouds - gotta love 'em. If only the entire summer were like this with our grass and foliage actually green going into football season!

[Stratton20]

18z Euro has a foot of rain in some of the western se texas counties fwiw through hour 90

[walsean1]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Slight risk for Excessive rainfall Wednesday May10