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Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 2:05 am
by Andrew
biggerbyte wrote:Nothing to look at tonight, folks. Td5 has choked for now. We'll see how it looks Wednesday afternoon.
This is another prime example in weather that things change from day to day, and nothing is certain. No one saw this fizzle, temporary, or not, coming. The forces to be could let up and allow a regen. We'll see. Not giving up yet, but tonight is clear sailing.
I'm going to bed.
I believe that this is only temporary and will not last tomm. Tomm conditions will only get better leading to better covection
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 3:23 am
by Mr. T
Enjoy the afternoon breezy thunderstorms Central Gulf Coast!
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 7:16 am
by srainhoutx
Still a TD barely...
000
WTNT35 KNHC 111138
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
700 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 85.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
Code: Select all
857
WHXX01 KWBC 111246
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1246 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE (AL052010) 20100811 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100811 1200 100812 0000 100812 1200 100813 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.5N 86.4W 28.4N 87.8W 29.3N 89.3W 30.1N 90.1W
BAMD 27.5N 86.4W 28.8N 88.3W 29.9N 89.7W 31.0N 90.2W
BAMM 27.5N 86.4W 28.7N 87.9W 29.7N 88.9W 30.7N 89.2W
LBAR 27.5N 86.4W 28.6N 88.2W 29.6N 89.7W 30.7N 90.6W
SHIP 25KTS 22KTS 21KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 22KTS 21KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100813 1200 100814 1200 100815 1200 100816 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.9N 91.1W 33.0N 91.9W 33.5N 92.1W 32.8N 93.8W
BAMD 31.6N 90.1W 32.5N 88.6W 31.5N 86.7W 29.0N 87.3W
BAMM 31.5N 89.1W 32.3N 87.6W 31.5N 86.1W 29.7N 86.9W
LBAR 31.5N 91.2W 33.3N 91.1W 35.1N 88.7W 37.2N 84.0W
SHIP 33KTS 46KTS 57KTS 58KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.5N LONCUR = 86.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 26.0N LONM12 = 84.0W DIRM12 = 310DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 25.6N LONM24 = 83.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 7:44 am
by wxman57
Still no threat to Houston, that's for sure.
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 8:09 am
by ticka1
I don't think its going to be threat to anyone unless it gets it act together. Seriously.
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 9:55 am
by srainhoutx
Remains a Depression...
000
WTNT35 KNHC 111443
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010
...LARGE DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 86.8W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:05 am
by SusieinLP
Looks like there is a bit of blow up down where the center is supposed to be...
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:06 am
by sleetstorm
This may sound like a silly query, but what is averting tropical drpression 5 from being able to get quickly organized, arid air from the north, its proximity to land?
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:48 am
by wxman57
sleetstorm wrote:This may sound like a silly query, but what is averting tropical depression 5 from being able to get quickly organized, arid air from the north, its proximity to land?
In order to intensify, there needs to be something to produce surface convergence, either a well-defined LLC (nope) or a significant and persistent area of convection/squalls that can then generate a better-defined LLC in a new location (low chance). Lacking anything to focus convection over one area, it's going to have a hard time intensifying.
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 10:48 am
by srainhoutx
Certainly not a well defined system...maybe the Upper Low will increase our rain chances though...
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 11:00 am
by wxman57
If you want to debate the center location, use a map with surface obs vs. satellite alone or radar. An analysis indicates an elongated trof of low pressure with no real LLC. Crosshairs mark the 15Z NHC location of the center:
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:17 pm
by biggerbyte
I would caution everyone that the fat lady may have lost some weight, but she still has not sang. There are a handful of cliche' that one could choose from during hurricane season. For grins, the latest GFS run shows this to be shunted west. Other models are showing it looping back into the gulf and we begin again. Now you all know how I feel about such, but it gives you guys something to consider. This mess is just sitting there right now. We still don't know what it willl do in the end. Will it regen'? Will it move inland, (round one?) before getting the chance to? Not sure yet. Steering is weak and still questionable, and other than landfall, there currently is nothing that could get in the way of doing so.
There is nothing like the present when it comes to tropical systems. We saw what tomorrow can bring with td5. There is always another tomorrow until these things are actually dead and gone.
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:19 pm
by AndrewLozeau
Great Point!!!!
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:27 pm
by SusieinLP
Oh..I feel dumb...I thought the center was near the blow up towards the bottom of FL....I thought that other "center" was part of the ULL...So have no clue...
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 2:16 pm
by biggerbyte
Sure does look pitiful. Maybe it will just vanish all together today. That is a possibility too.
We'll see.. What a messy start to the season.
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 2:27 pm
by biggerbyte
Ticka, if this system does not die today, no one is going to be able to tell you what to expect until we can get landfall. It's not moving atm. You are going to need to use your own best judgement as to that trip. Personaly, I would never take a trip somewhere with a system in the gulf, especially with children. I made the mistake of flying to Florida while Andrew was forming off to the east. The models were saying at the time that it was going to remain off to the east. Needless to say, that did not happen. I BARELY caught an emergency flight back to Texas before he hit the area I was staying in. Looking out the window of my airplane, the swirling edge of this hurricane could be seen. What an eye opener.
NEVER again...
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 2:31 pm
by srainhoutx
Looks like the NHC has about given up on TD 5...
235
NOUS42 KNHC 111900
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0300 PM EDT WED 11 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-073 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS --AMENDED
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS:
A.ALL TASKING FOR THE AIR FORCE ON TD-05
WAS CANX BY NHC AT 11/1830Z.
B. NOAA IS STILL PLANNING TO FLY SEVERAL
RESEARCH MISSONS THAT WERE ON TCPOD 10-072.
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 2:58 pm
by Mr. T
And just like Bonnie, TD #5 has died before landfall
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 3:30 pm
by sleetstorm
wxman57 wrote:sleetstorm wrote:This may sound like a silly query, but what is averting tropical depression 5 from being able to get quickly organized, arid air from the north, its proximity to land?
In order to intensify, there needs to be something to produce surface convergence, either a well-defined LLC (nope) or a significant and persistent area of convection/squalls that can then generate a better-defined LLC in a new location (low chance). Lacking anything to focus convection over one area, it's going to have a hard time intensifying.
Thank you for assisting me to understand that, wxman57.
Re: TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico
Posted: Wed Aug 11, 2010 3:40 pm
by srainhoutx
000
WTNT35 KNHC 112034
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
400 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST REMAINS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 87.6W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.