October 2020

[Andrew]

18z ECMWF further west and slower compared to 12z

Boy Andrew..climo is not working here..lol

I still think ECMWF is too aggressive with ridging to the east, but it does raise an eyebrow.

[tireman4]

Or two.

[redneckweather]

Latest track by NHC, pretty much taking Texas out of the cone.

030028_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[Stormlover2020]

Icon shift little west

[Scott747]

No big changes so far on the early parts of the 0z runs. Ridge is only a touch stronger but the trough is still there.

[Andrew]

No big changes so far on the early parts of the 0z runs. Ridge is only a touch stronger but the trough is still there.

Yea I think the GFS solution is probably pretty spot on at this point.

[Andrew]

ECMWF is around the same landfall but quicker

[TXWeatherMan]

ECMWF is around the same landfall but quicker

Pretty close to where Laura made landfall?

[TXWeatherMan]

ECMWF is around the same landfall but quicker

Pretty close to where Laura made landfall?

[Andrew]

ECMWF is around the same landfall but quicker

Pretty close to where Laura made landfall?

Yea maybe a little west. Shows some rain houston.

[TXWeatherMan]

ECMWF is around the same landfall but quicker

Pretty close to where Laura made landfall?

Yea maybe a little west. Shows some rain houston.

Geez. That would be a nightmare for the people around that area.

[snowman65]

Pretty close to where Laura made landfall?

Yea maybe a little west. Shows some rain houston.

Geez. That would be a nightmare for the people around that area.

Screw it.....come on....please destroy my house so I can finally move. Let's see what you got...

[tireman4]

5 am. Getting destructive. Near Punta Cancun. Chasing #Hurricane #DELTA in #Mexico pic.twitter.com/zIdZ4GgDYV
-- Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) October 7, 2020

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313783304881987584

[tireman4]

732
WTNT61 KNHC 071049
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
645 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUERTO MORELOS...

Satellite imagery, radar data from Cuba, and surface observations
in Mexico indicate that the center of Delta has made landfall along
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos
around 5:30 AM CDT (1030 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 110
mph (175 km/h), a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Puerto Morales recently reported
near calm winds and a minimum pressure of 972 MB (28.71 inches) in
the center.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun has reported peak
sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 106 mph (170
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 645 AM EDT...1045 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[tireman4]

6 am. At the Westin Resort at Punta Nizuc. Still relatively calm. My theory: tiny eyewall disintegrated, leaving much larger eyewall and eye. Significant wind damage all around. pic.twitter.com/iSS01J2Eqg
-- Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) October 7, 2020

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1313799385856131072

[tireman4]

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/stat ... 2804066306

NEW: enhanced damage south strip of Cancun where easterly eye wall winds funneled between the large hotels. Major structural damage within these zones of funneling winds from Category 2 Hurricane #Delta that just made landfall south of Cancun @RadarOmega_WX pic.twitter.com/QW5MSQV2Uj
-- Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) October 7, 2020

[tireman4]

Hurricane #Delta made landfall just south of Cancun, Mexico before sunrise, & there have been reports of winds >100 mph in the region. Thankfully, Delta wasn't as strong as it could have been. Delta will enter the Gulf of Mexico later today, where it will eventually restrengthen. pic.twitter.com/PufdZSwS3w
-- Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) October 7, 2020

[Andrew]

At this point, the NHC is on the eastern edge of models so I suspect we might see a couple of nudges to the west. Interesting to note if the ECMWF solution verifies it shows about 2 inches of rain east of I-10. Maybe some TS gusts? Also, the models that have a western bias have Delta tracking to the west today some before returning to the WNW/NW movement. Two things to watch today.

[Stormlover2020]

Looks like 12z guidance runs moved west

[tireman4]

At this point, the NHC is on the eastern edge of models so I suspect we might see a couple of nudges to the west. Interesting to note if the ECMWF solution verifies it shows about 2 inches of rain east of I-10. Maybe some TS gusts? Also, the models that have a western bias have Delta tracking to the west today some before returning to the WNW/NW movement. Two things to watch today.

Totally agree with you. I am thinking along the same lines, but you have the pro met degree.