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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 14, 2020 6:50 am The overnight 0z Euro has a massive system coming in about a week to 8 days from now. I’m sure it’ll change.

CPC's 8-14 day mentioned it in yesterday's outlook https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... hreats.php

Valid Tuesday April 21, 2020 to Monday April 27, 2020
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT April 13 2020

...With the cooler, drier air to the West due to the trough, there is elevated potential for severe weather over parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma, and extending eastward to parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. The troughing to the west favors increasing veering winds aloft, and a potential moisture gradient setting up over the High Plains, both features conducive for severe weather development. Interests in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley are encouraged to refer to updates from the Storm Prediction Center, in addition to their local Weather Forecast Offices regarding this potential. The severe weather threat may shift east toward the southeastern states later in the period, but confidence is too low to extend the hazard at this time.
...

Sure enough the 12z Euro took most of it away lol

Once again it looks like most of the rain will be north of 10 over the next week or so. What a surprise lol

Another gorgeous Chamber of Commerce day in the Brazos Valley. What a week - the weather I've been expecting during our Fake Winter FINALLY arrives - in April. No A/C. We've had nearly 3 inches of rain in the past. Sprinklers off. Gardening/yard work without sweating buckets. Low dew point. More NNE advection. Enjoying it while it lasts and before reality hits!

Late weekend storms are on the way. The system on the 23rd appears to have its energy focused east of here. Canadian predicts close to 2 in of rain. GFS about 1 inch.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:34 am Another gorgeous Chamber of Commerce day in the Brazos Valley. What a week - the weather I've been expecting during our Fake Winter FINALLY arrives - in April. No A/C. We've had nearly 3 inches of rain in the past. Sprinklers off. Gardening/yard work without sweating buckets. Low dew point. More NNE advection. Enjoying it while it lasts and before reality hits!

Late weekend storms are on the way. The system on the 23rd appears to have its energy focused east of here. Canadian predicts close to 2 in of rain. GFS about 1 inch.

The Euro is the model to watch for that system. Has a better handle on it.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:08 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:34 am Another gorgeous Chamber of Commerce day in the Brazos Valley. What a week - the weather I've been expecting during our Fake Winter FINALLY arrives - in April. No A/C. We've had nearly 3 inches of rain in the past. Sprinklers off. Gardening/yard work without sweating buckets. Low dew point. More NNE advection. Enjoying it while it lasts and before reality hits!

Late weekend storms are on the way. The system on the 23rd appears to have its energy focused east of here. Canadian predicts close to 2 in of rain. GFS about 1 inch.

The Euro is the model to watch for that system. Has a better handle on it.

Yeah, Euro has the low cutting along the Red River Valley heading east. Severity and rainfall depends upon how the dry line sets up. Possibly east if I-45 and N of I-10...we're a week away.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:46 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 1:08 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:34 am Another gorgeous Chamber of Commerce day in the Brazos Valley. What a week - the weather I've been expecting during our Fake Winter FINALLY arrives - in April. No A/C. We've had nearly 3 inches of rain in the past. Sprinklers off. Gardening/yard work without sweating buckets. Low dew point. More NNE advection. Enjoying it while it lasts and before reality hits!

Late weekend storms are on the way. The system on the 23rd appears to have its energy focused east of here. Canadian predicts close to 2 in of rain. GFS about 1 inch.

The Euro is the model to watch for that system. Has a better handle on it.

Yeah, Euro has the low cutting along the Red River Valley heading east. Severity and rainfall depends upon how the dry line sets up. Possibly east if I-45 and N of I-10...we're a week away.

Yessiirr!! Long way to go, but that system has potential.

Keep in mind one thing about the GFS is that it has a tendency to be too progressive which causes everything to push east of us. The SPC now has SETX under the gun on Sunday.

Lots of activity just offshore (of course). Miss North and now missing South

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:39 pm Lots of activity just offshore (of course). Miss North and now missing South

Yes and I really don’t think we’ll get much this weekend either. And Wednesday’s system doesn’t really look very promising either.

Great. My lawn is so stressed that all of a sudden rust fungus has showed up just in time for its annual destruction of my yard. It looked great a few days ago.

We shall see what this afternoon, evening, night, and Sunday morning will bring for SE TX. Seeing some little cells around Alvin headed toward League City and Dickinson. Perhaps a little rain for the yard here in W League City. Tomorrow morning the SPC has all of SE TX in a slight risk area but my concern is for the Deep South again. Once again they have a moderate risk tomorrow with some strong tornadoes possible.

Katdaddy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:06 pm We shall see what this afternoon, evening, night, and Sunday morning will bring for SE TX. Seeing some little cells around Alvin headed toward League City and Dickinson. Perhaps a little rain for the yard here in W League City. Tomorrow morning the SPC has all of SE TX in a slight risk area but my concern is for the Deep South again. Once again they have a moderate risk tomorrow with some strong tornadoes possible.

I think as we enter the month of May, those higher risk areas will shift further west more into Texas. Right now May is looking like an interesting month for us. We could be looking at a lot of severe weather potential and the possibility of flooding is no doubt on the table. The Euro Weeklies are all over it.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:13 pm

Katdaddy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:06 pm We shall see what this afternoon, evening, night, and Sunday morning will bring for SE TX. Seeing some little cells around Alvin headed toward League City and Dickinson. Perhaps a little rain for the yard here in W League City. Tomorrow morning the SPC has all of SE TX in a slight risk area but my concern is for the Deep South again. Once again they have a moderate risk tomorrow with some strong tornadoes possible.

I think as we enter the month of May, those higher risk areas will shift further west more into Texas. Right now May is looking like an interesting month for us. We could be looking at a lot of severe weather potential and the possibility of flooding is no doubt on the table. The Euro Weeklies are all over it.

May has seen many flooding like in 1907, 1929, 1936, 1989, 2012, and 2016.
http://www.floodsafety.com/texas/USGSdemo/date.htm

Now, we have the COVID-19 pandemic to deal with.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
West central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 415 PM CDT.

* At 340 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Todd Mission,
or 11 miles northwest of Pinehurst, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Todd Mission, Plantersville and Dobbin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

I can’t even buy rain right now.. guess I’ll have to water the yard if we don’t get anything tomorrow.

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:22 pm I can’t even buy rain right now.. guess I’ll have to water the yard if we don’t get anything tomorrow.

Same. I'm gonna have to buy a ton of peatmoss to combat the damned take all root rot (or whatever fungus has sprung up) and water my yard as well

So far, it's like there is a wedge over me, pointed to the SW, and everything wants to split around it.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:42 pm So far, it's like there is a wedge over me, pointed to the SW, and everything wants to split around it.

Jason, you live in a lot better area for rain than a lot of us others on here. At least you’re north of 10. South of 10 it’s basically crickets.

Well my percentage for Beaumont WAS 80/90% and now the NWS just lowered it to 40/50% for tomorrow. Broken record! Always 80/90% 3-4 days out then drastically lowered the day before or the day of. Im so tired of this no rain. What ever happened to April showers brings May flowers? Lol. I guess no flowers for May in Beaumont!