Valid Tuesday April 21, 2020 to Monday April 27, 2020
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT April 13 2020
...With the cooler, drier air to the West due to the trough, there is elevated potential for severe weather over parts of eastern Texas and Oklahoma, and extending eastward to parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. The troughing to the west favors increasing veering winds aloft, and a potential moisture gradient setting up over the High Plains, both features conducive for severe weather development. Interests in the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley are encouraged to refer to updates from the Storm Prediction Center, in addition to their local Weather Forecast Offices regarding this potential. The severe weather threat may shift east toward the southeastern states later in the period, but confidence is too low to extend the hazard at this time.
...
Another gorgeous Chamber of Commerce day in the Brazos Valley. What a week - the weather I've been expecting during our Fake Winter FINALLY arrives - in April. No A/C. We've had nearly 3 inches of rain in the past. Sprinklers off. Gardening/yard work without sweating buckets. Low dew point. More NNE advection. Enjoying it while it lasts and before reality hits!
Late weekend storms are on the way. The system on the 23rd appears to have its energy focused east of here. Canadian predicts close to 2 in of rain. GFS about 1 inch.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:34 am
Another gorgeous Chamber of Commerce day in the Brazos Valley. What a week - the weather I've been expecting during our Fake Winter FINALLY arrives - in April. No A/C. We've had nearly 3 inches of rain in the past. Sprinklers off. Gardening/yard work without sweating buckets. Low dew point. More NNE advection. Enjoying it while it lasts and before reality hits!
Late weekend storms are on the way. The system on the 23rd appears to have its energy focused east of here. Canadian predicts close to 2 in of rain. GFS about 1 inch.
The Euro is the model to watch for that system. Has a better handle on it.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:34 am
Another gorgeous Chamber of Commerce day in the Brazos Valley. What a week - the weather I've been expecting during our Fake Winter FINALLY arrives - in April. No A/C. We've had nearly 3 inches of rain in the past. Sprinklers off. Gardening/yard work without sweating buckets. Low dew point. More NNE advection. Enjoying it while it lasts and before reality hits!
Late weekend storms are on the way. The system on the 23rd appears to have its energy focused east of here. Canadian predicts close to 2 in of rain. GFS about 1 inch.
The Euro is the model to watch for that system. Has a better handle on it.
Yeah, Euro has the low cutting along the Red River Valley heading east. Severity and rainfall depends upon how the dry line sets up. Possibly east if I-45 and N of I-10...we're a week away.
DoctorMu wrote: ↑Thu Apr 16, 2020 11:34 am
Another gorgeous Chamber of Commerce day in the Brazos Valley. What a week - the weather I've been expecting during our Fake Winter FINALLY arrives - in April. No A/C. We've had nearly 3 inches of rain in the past. Sprinklers off. Gardening/yard work without sweating buckets. Low dew point. More NNE advection. Enjoying it while it lasts and before reality hits!
Late weekend storms are on the way. The system on the 23rd appears to have its energy focused east of here. Canadian predicts close to 2 in of rain. GFS about 1 inch.
The Euro is the model to watch for that system. Has a better handle on it.
Yeah, Euro has the low cutting along the Red River Valley heading east. Severity and rainfall depends upon how the dry line sets up. Possibly east if I-45 and N of I-10...we're a week away.
Yessiirr!! Long way to go, but that system has potential.
Keep in mind one thing about the GFS is that it has a tendency to be too progressive which causes everything to push east of us. The SPC now has SETX under the gun on Sunday.
Great. My lawn is so stressed that all of a sudden rust fungus has showed up just in time for its annual destruction of my yard. It looked great a few days ago.
We shall see what this afternoon, evening, night, and Sunday morning will bring for SE TX. Seeing some little cells around Alvin headed toward League City and Dickinson. Perhaps a little rain for the yard here in W League City. Tomorrow morning the SPC has all of SE TX in a slight risk area but my concern is for the Deep South again. Once again they have a moderate risk tomorrow with some strong tornadoes possible.
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Katdaddy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:06 pm
We shall see what this afternoon, evening, night, and Sunday morning will bring for SE TX. Seeing some little cells around Alvin headed toward League City and Dickinson. Perhaps a little rain for the yard here in W League City. Tomorrow morning the SPC has all of SE TX in a slight risk area but my concern is for the Deep South again. Once again they have a moderate risk tomorrow with some strong tornadoes possible.
I think as we enter the month of May, those higher risk areas will shift further west more into Texas. Right now May is looking like an interesting month for us. We could be looking at a lot of severe weather potential and the possibility of flooding is no doubt on the table. The Euro Weeklies are all over it.
Katdaddy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:06 pm
We shall see what this afternoon, evening, night, and Sunday morning will bring for SE TX. Seeing some little cells around Alvin headed toward League City and Dickinson. Perhaps a little rain for the yard here in W League City. Tomorrow morning the SPC has all of SE TX in a slight risk area but my concern is for the Deep South again. Once again they have a moderate risk tomorrow with some strong tornadoes possible.
I think as we enter the month of May, those higher risk areas will shift further west more into Texas. Right now May is looking like an interesting month for us. We could be looking at a lot of severe weather potential and the possibility of flooding is no doubt on the table. The Euro Weeklies are all over it.
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2020
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Grimes County in southeastern Texas...
West central Montgomery County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Waller County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 415 PM CDT.
* At 340 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Todd Mission,
or 11 miles northwest of Pinehurst, moving northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.
* Locations impacted include...
Todd Mission, Plantersville and Dobbin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.
Well my percentage for Beaumont WAS 80/90% and now the NWS just lowered it to 40/50% for tomorrow. Broken record! Always 80/90% 3-4 days out then drastically lowered the day before or the day of. Im so tired of this no rain. What ever happened to April showers brings May flowers? Lol. I guess no flowers for May in Beaumont!
FINALLY arrives - in April. No A/C. We've had nearly 3 inches of rain in the past. Sprinklers off. Gardening/yard work without sweating buckets. Low dew point. More NNE advection. Enjoying it while it lasts and before reality hits!
