Andrew wrote:
The other thing that is noticeable about the run is it also shows the ridge coming back strong and really stalling the storm around the LA coast and then sending it west towards Texas. Again it emphasizes the aspect of timing and how important it is for where this invest/possible future storm goes.
Very interesting...
A stronger storm will tend to move more poleward, which is why this particular run of the Euro shows 93L almost being taken away by the trough. But, just as 93L is trying to take a turn to the east, the trough passes off the East Coast and another ridge builds in to the north. Thus, the storm is kicked back to the west.
If this storm were to stay weak and move a bit slower, it could miss that bypassing trough to the NE and take a more westerly track. This is why it needs to be stressed that these long range model runs are in no way a "consensus forming" or have a high chance to be accurate that far away in time. Again, we have yet to see 93L make any kind of organizational stance. Without a defined storm or center, we're pretty much throwing darts a mile down the road to hit a grain of rice being carried by an ant.
And, who knows, this thing may never get its act together...
