June 2019: Showers/Storms Increasing To End June

[tireman4]

Radar Image

[cperk]

Picked up 2.7 inches so far.

[srainhoutx]

The good news is that the heaviest rainfall has occurred away from the urban areas. It is also good news that the heaviest rains will be out of our hair tonight into tomorrow except for folks in the New Orleans area. More good news is a relative strong cool front arrives early next week with daytime temperatures in the 80's and low temps near 60.

[Cpv17]

I just hope we can at least get a couple inches out of this. I don’t like the trends today for my area though. Most of the rain looks like it’ll be east of us.

I don't think you are going to have to worry. Be careful what you wish for though.

You nailed it. My rain gauge is overflowing.

[cperk]

The good news is that the heaviest rainfall has occurred away from the urban areas. It is also good news that the heaviest rains will be out of our hair tonight into tomorrow except for folks in the New Orleans area. More good news is a relative strong cool front arrives early next week with daytime temperatures in the 80's and low temps near 60.

That is good news a good drenching without the flooding i hope.

[LightningBolt]

The good news is that the heaviest rainfall has occurred away from the urban areas. It is also good news that the heaviest rains will be out of our hair tonight into tomorrow except for folks in the New Orleans area. More good news is a relative strong cool front arrives early next week with daytime temperatures in the 80's and low temps near 60.

Regarding that strong cool front...any thoughts on where it may stall? A cool front stalling over warm tropical waters can be a dangerous occurrence!!

[srainhoutx]

The good news is that the heaviest rainfall has occurred away from the urban areas. It is also good news that the heaviest rains will be out of our hair tonight into tomorrow except for folks in the New Orleans area. More good news is a relative strong cool front arrives early next week with daytime temperatures in the 80's and low temps near 60.

Regarding that strong cool front...any thoughts on where it may stall? A cool front stalling over warm tropical waters can be a dangerous occurrence!!

Current thinking is well offshore. A big Upper trough settles into the United States East of the Rockies. Cooler temperatures are expected East of the Continental Divide while temperatures warm up along the West Coast. Along with cooler temperatures, bouts of rain can be expected across portions of Texas with a NW flow aloft.

[DoctorMu]

The good news is that the heaviest rainfall has occurred away from the urban areas. It is also good news that the heaviest rains will be out of our hair tonight into tomorrow except for folks in the New Orleans area. More good news is a relative strong cool front arrives early next week with daytime temperatures in the 80's and low temps near 60.

Where are you seeing those temps after the front? That really would be great.

[Cpv17]

The good news is that the heaviest rainfall has occurred away from the urban areas. It is also good news that the heaviest rains will be out of our hair tonight into tomorrow except for folks in the New Orleans area. More good news is a relative strong cool front arrives early next week with daytime temperatures in the 80's and low temps near 60.

That is good news a good drenching without the flooding i hope.

It definitely flooded here. Several roads are shut down. Corn and cotton fields completely underwater, even power poles are snapped causing power lines to be down over roads. It’s a mess here in Wharton County.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051606
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1106 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Very heavy rainfall occurred through Wharton, Matagorda, Fort
Bend and Jackson Counties this morning. This band of heavy
rainfall has weakened so rainfall rates are closer to 1 to 2
inches an hour instead of 2 to 4 inches of rain in an hour. This
band should track across Brazoria and Galveston Counties as well
as the rest of Fort Bend and southern Harris Counties. For the
next 6 hours we are looking at the potential of 3 to 6 inches of
rain for these areas however it could be less. IR Satellite
imagery shows much colder cloud tops off the coast in the Gulf of
Mexico. Surface observations at 16Z show NW winds at KPSX with SW
winds at a platform KBBF and S winds at platform KBQX. KBYY also
has N winds so we may be seeing an area of low pressure form near
this stronger convection in the Gulf. Should this continue on a
more easterly track and stay in the Gulf, we could catch a break
from some of the higher rainfall totals. That said, the higher
totals will be along the coast with rainfall occurring for the
rest of the day. The biggest thing we will need to monitor will be
rain rates, otherwise most of the area will be able to handle 3
to 6 inches of rainfall with street flooding and flooding in
typical low lying areas.

Overpeck

[Texaspirate11]

City officials are asking people in Wharton NOT to flush their toilets due to sewage back up....
ugh.

[srainhoutx]

The good news is that the heaviest rainfall has occurred away from the urban areas. It is also good news that the heaviest rains will be out of our hair tonight into tomorrow except for folks in the New Orleans area. More good news is a relative strong cool front arrives early next week with daytime temperatures in the 80's and low temps near 60.

Where are you seeing those temps after the front? That really would be great.

[Cpv17]

Srain, rain chances don’t look good at all after tomorrow. The SE could get 1 to 2 feet of rain in places over the next couple weeks. It looks like we’ll be left hot and dry here for a long time after this event passes. I hope we don’t go into a drought. The pattern looks like it’s shifting to a typical summertime pattern where the SE gets a ton of rain and we’re left hot and dry.

[Belmer]

Unfortunately areas to our SW was the target for the heaviest rain during this event. It looked pretty certain someone was going to pick up 8-12 inches and that very well happened. NAM and HRRR did fairly well in a few runs showing that is where the heaviest of the rain would fall.

Meanwhile, current channel status looks good for all of Harris County. A good solid 1-3 inches fell over the area. Threat now turns to possible slight risk of severe weather tomorrow and possibly into Friday...

Heat index and mosquitoes this weekend are going to be brutal. That cool front is going to be welcomed with arms wide open!

[DoctorMu]

The good news is that the heaviest rainfall has occurred away from the urban areas. It is also good news that the heaviest rains will be out of our hair tonight into tomorrow except for folks in the New Orleans area. More good news is a relative strong cool front arrives early next week with daytime temperatures in the 80's and low temps near 60.

Where are you seeing those temps after the front? That really would be great.

06052019 12Z 168gfs_T2m_us_29.png

OK. NOAA is a little less aggressive on the front clearing the coast. GFS nailed the rain location today, so fingers crossed.

[srainhoutx]

1:00 PM Update from Jeff:

Trough axis and weak surface low extending from the coast to Fort Bend County is moving slowly eastward with heaviest rains generally over Brazoria and Galveston Counties and moderate to at time heavy rainfall over southern Harris County SE of US 59.

A recent explosion of thunderstorms off the upper TX coast is helping to disrupt low level inflow into the inland rainfall activity and this is helping to keep rainfall rates at manageable levels.

Rain should gradually end from WSW to ENE this afternoon with isolated to scattered activity possible behind the main band.

All bayous and creeks remain well within their banks and no flooding is expected.

Of note: SPC has upgraded a large portion of SE TX into an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.

[Cromagnum]

Feels very tropical outside

[tireman4]

Tornado Warning
TXC167-051915-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0038.190605T1839Z-190605T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
139 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 215 PM CDT.

* At 138 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Galveston State Park, or 7 miles south of
Hitchcock, moving northwest at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree
damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
Hitchcock around 205 PM CDT.
La Marque around 210 PM CDT.
Santa Fe around 215 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

If on or near the west end of Galveston Bay, get away from the water
and move to safe shelter immediately. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Severe thunderstorms can
produce large capsizing waves, even on small bodies of water. Move
into dock and seek safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water
in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 2918 9494 2916 9497 2933 9512 2938 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 153DEG 23KT 2921 9498

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

[snowman65]

is there more of this expected tomorrow after this clears out this evening?

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 051750
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2019

.AVIATION...
The large area of moderate/heavy rain is continuing to slowly move
east out of the CWA this afternoon. Did drop the mention of TS for
most of our sites as the strongest development as been offshore so
far. CIGS will continue as a mix of IFR/MVFR for this afternoon...
likely becoming more IFR/LIFR tonight through early Thur. The tim-
ing of these bands of rain (associated with the much deeper moist-
ure moving in from the Gulf and the strong disturbance approaching
from the west) looks to be the most problematic with this TAF set.
Will likely keep with a broad VCSH for most of tomorrow. 41