June Weather Discussion

[djjordan]

Got a good hour so soaking tropical rains from the band that set up running from Ft. Bend into Harris Cty. Yard is saturated here after all of last nights rainfall too. Wonder what Flash Flood Guidance is indicating? Would not be surprised to see a Flash Flood Watch posted later today.

[jasons2k]

Hmm, just saw this from NWS HGX, even though it's from 12:30PM

.AVIATION...
A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. UPPER LOW OVER HOUSTON WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
EAST SOUTHEAST. MODELS TYPICALLY HANDLE THESE SYSTEMS VERY POORLY.
BOTH NAM/GFS HAVE TRENDED WETTER ON THE 12Z RUN. GIVEN LARGE EXPANSE
OF PRECIP...EVEN IF LOW MOVES TOWARD TX/LA BORDER AS ADVERTISED
THINK SWATH OF PRECIP AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL STILL AFFECT
HOUSTON TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. HAVE TEMPOED SHRA/TSRA
THROUGH 22Z...THEN GENERALLY KEPT VCSH/VCTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT NORTHWEST AREAS AROUND KCLL WILL
DRY OUT THIS EVENING SO KEPT THIS AREA DRY AFTER 02Z. PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS WRAP
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 8-12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED.

[C2G]

That low shifts a little to the south and we could get a lot of rain.
Already appears to be filling in quite a bit to our west/southwest.

[wxdata]

June of 2004 saw a series of upper toughs/lows cross Texas. Because of those upper systems, Houston had its second wettest June on record. Deju Vu?

[kayci]

Lots of rain for TxCity this evening? I hope our city management is keeping up with this event, last time they didnt' turn on the drainage pumps and our yard flooded BIG TIME!

[djjordan]

June of 2004 saw a series of upper toughs/lows cross Texas. Because of those upper systems, Houston had its second wettest June on record. Deju Vu?

I remember that month well. Hey it's been 6 years ...might be time for an encore performance lol.

[Paul]

Man, I am in Miami today and tomorrow missing all the fun.....speaking of Miami the talk here is hurricanes and oil. The locals are not really happy about progress....and with hurriacne season here they are really nervous.

[srainhoutx]

Upper Low appears to be nearly stationary over Waller County. If this is indeed warm core, rains should move closer to the center of circulation overnight.

[Rip76]

Could this Low find itself heading towards the gulf, and would it matter?

[wxman57]

Could this Low find itself heading towards the gulf, and would it matter?

No, not with the tremendous wind shear presently over the Gulf. The wind shear may relax for a few days around the 13th, but not this week.

[jasons2k]

NWS does not seem too bullish or concerned with the rainfall/flooding potential overnight.

I am not a pro met, but in my opinion, this has "gotcha" written all over it. It's these stationary warm-core systems that can dump tremendous amounts of rain somewhere, especially where storms train or core rains setup. I think there should a flood watch because somebody is going to get dumped-on overnight. And my non-scientific theory is that since there isn't much concern over this....watch out! Somebody will wake-up tomorrow and wonder what happened.

[Mr. T]

Today's high of 82 degrees, which is 7 degrees below the normal high of 89, is the coolest day we've seen since May 15th's high of 77 degrees. We averaged a -4 for today's average temperature. This is the first day below average since May 15th as well...

[svrwx0503]

Recent model soundings and radar/sat observations do not yet suggest that the system is transitioning over to a warm core low with it maintaining a pocket of cold temps aloft. After being nearly stationary for most of the day, recent trends might indicate that it is starting to move slowly off to the east with the center looking like it is located somewhere in northern Waller/northwest Harris county at this time. Rain and some isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight across parts of the area but as far as a real heavy rain threat goes, it looks rather low at this time, although you can't rule anything out since this is southeast Texas.

[svrwx0503]

Today's high of 82 degrees, which is 7 degrees below the normal high of 89, is the coolest day we've seen since May 15th's high of 77 degrees. We averaged a -4 for today's average temperature. This is the first day below average since May 15th as well...

Yeah, the slower movement of the upper low has really caused some pretty significant temp busts across areas that have been seeing the added clouds and rain.

[sau27]

I know that sometimes low pressure centers like this one drop extremely heavy rain at night. I remember learning about that, but I cant remember what it is called when that happens. Its been bugging me all afternoon. Can any one help me out with what its called. Im sure when I see it I will have an "oh yeah" moment.

[svrwx0503]

I know that sometimes low pressure centers like this one drop extremely heavy rain at night. I remember learning about that, but I cant remember what it is called when that happens. Its been bugging me all afternoon. Can any one help me out with what its called. Im sure when I see it I will have an "oh yeah" moment.

I think you are referring to a core rain event which occur with warm core systems like tropical storms. Since the current low still looks to be cold core, a major core rain event does not look likely.

[sau27]

I know that sometimes low pressure centers like this one drop extremely heavy rain at night. I remember learning about that, but I cant remember what it is called when that happens. Its been bugging me all afternoon. Can any one help me out with what its called. Im sure when I see it I will have an "oh yeah" moment.

I think you are referring to a core rain event which occur with warm core systems like tropical storms.

core rain event. Thats it . thank you

[Mr. T]

Recent model soundings and radar/sat observations do not yet suggest that the system is transitioning over to a warm core low with it maintaining a pocket of cold temps aloft. After being nearly stationary for most of the day, recent trends might indicate that it is starting to move slowly off to the east with the center looking like it is located somewhere in northern Waller/northwest Harris county at this time. Rain and some isolated thunderstorms will continue overnight across parts of the area but as far as a real heavy rain threat goes, it looks rather low at this time, although you can't rule anything out since this is southeast Texas.

Yeah... This is definitely not warm core right now

[wxdata]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/03/10 2234Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2215Z RUMINSKI
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERTICALLY STACKED VORTEX FORMED OUT OF
REMAINS OF LAST NIGHTS MCS IS NEAR KDWH. LITTLE MVMNT NOTED WITH SYSTEM
CENTER PAST 6 HRS OR SO. GOES/GPS DERIVED PW LOOP SHOWS HIGHEST PW/S
SHIFTING E WITH CNVTN IN THE NRN/CENTRAL GULF BUT WRAPPING BACK AND
EXPANDING OVER E TX AND LA. ALL OF LA AND ADJACENT E TX SHOWING VALUES
ARND 2.1".

CNVTN HAS BEEN FILLING IN WITH CLD TOP TEMPS COOLING SOMEWHAT OVER E
TX FROM HOUSTON TO NRN JASPER COUNTIES. BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
NOTED OVER THIS AREA AND THERE HAD BEEN SOME SOLAR INSOLATION EARLIER.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT..FEEL THAT SYSTEM WILL EXHIBIT TROPICAL TRAIT
OF CNVTN CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN SLOW MVMNT AND DEEP MOISTURE
AVBL..2-3" PER HR RAIN RATES PSBL.

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2230Z TO 0130Z..HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...PLACEMENT NOT CERTAIN BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT HEAVY RAIN
WILL OCCUR FROM THE HOUSTON METRO AREA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SABINE AND
NEWTON. AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT EXPAND MUCH FROM WHAT IT IS NOW BUT SLOW
MVMNT AND REPEAT ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATION.

[Ptarmigan]

I know that sometimes low pressure centers like this one drop extremely heavy rain at night. I remember learning about that, but I cant remember what it is called when that happens. Its been bugging me all afternoon. Can any one help me out with what its called. Im sure when I see it I will have an "oh yeah" moment.

Core rain. Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 is an example of one.