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Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:14 am
by redneckweather
A.V. wrote:
BiggieSmalls wrote:I also find the premise flawed that "good weather" means warm, rainy and humid, with no real seasons. Have fun with that :(

This is how summers need to be:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai#Climate

So you are moving to Mumbai. Awesome and have fun with that.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:17 am
by StormOne
A.V. wrote:
BiggieSmalls wrote:I also find the premise flawed that "good weather" means warm, rainy and humid, with no real seasons. Have fun with that :(

This is how summers need to be:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai#Climate
I could never stand an average low temp of 62 degrees in January. I need my cold weather :roll:

You clearly don't know what the weather here is like. We have wet years and we have dry years. We are in the midst of a developing La Nina, which will naturally bring a dry climate to us, with increased activity in the Atlantic.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:35 pm
by jasons2k
A.V. wrote:You know its bad luck, and not geography, when places just across the state line have been rained on so many times.
Look, I share your frustration with the hot and dry weather, and this long-term drought we are in the midst of, but it is hardly unusual for Texas. If you disagree, pick up an old copy of Texas Weather by George Bomar, a former state climatologist. There is a whole chapter devoted to heat waves and droughts. It's nothing new. It has nothing to do with luck; it is purely the result of science based on our geographic location, ocean currents, climate patterns, etc.

There isn't some evil weather God out to get us, it's just nature. As JB says, "Enjoy the weather - it's the only weather you got!"

(PS, a little side note, I am proud to say I am the owner of a rare copy of the 1975 draft version of Texas Weather co-written by Harold Taft & Ron Godbey, before the Bomar version got re-written and widely published in 1983).

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:38 pm
by djmike
Can we move forward now from this back and forth debate? Thank you!

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 12:59 pm
by Ounce
With glee I ask, that Low pressure off the coast of Alabama which seems to sit there, is that because of a lack of something steering it east? I guess that's called a cut off Low? Thanks.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 pm
by A.V.
djmike wrote:Can we move forward now from this back and forth debate? Thank you!
But discussion is interesting.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:19 pm
by DoctorMu
A.V. wrote:
Texaspirate11 wrote:For Houston - I saw it the other day and I'm looking for it - great graphicast.

Oh its hot by the bay - but we got a bit o luck today....after that, the steam was on.
Hot, but still with storms. Better than heat with nothing, as seen in much of this state, which is an epic fail during summer. No way the TX Panhandle should be flooded with rain, while the coast sees nothing.



It is monsoon season. The Panhandle sees an uptick of rain this time of year as does New Mexico. Texas is a very large state...It is nearly an hour shorter to Pensacola as it is to Lubbock from Houston.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:25 pm
by DoctorMu
A.V. wrote:
BiggieSmalls wrote:I also find the premise flawed that "good weather" means warm, rainy and humid, with no real seasons. Have fun with that :(

This is how summers need to be:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mumbai#Climate

Dude, you are definitely trolling. Mumbai is the height of miserable, monsoonal (flood/drought) weather. Almost inch of rain a day for 3-4 months and nary a trace for 7 months out of the year.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:39 pm
by srainhoutx
We are still seeing consistency in the afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 6 to 10 Outlook and interestingly, 1998 continues to be advertised in the Day 8+ Analogs as a somewhat similar upper air pattern.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:12 pm
by JDawg512
It would be nice to have a couple of degrees cooler weather and some rain next week for the Austin area. These next two days could be the hottest of the year.

Bring on Meteorological Autumn!

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:30 pm
by A.V.
redneckweather wrote:So you are moving to Mumbai. Awesome and have fun with that.
OK.
StormOne wrote:You clearly don't know what the weather here is like. We have wet years and we have dry years. We are in the midst of a developing La Nina, which will naturally bring a dry climate to us, with increased activity in the Atlantic.
I know enough about weather to know that that summer have been hotter and drier this decade, compared to previous decades, at least. Even in historic dry decades, the temperatures weren't as stupidly hot; the combo is clearly getting worse as time goes on, and is extending to areas that normally aren't very affected by such swings at all (like Houston and Beaumont).

La Nina only dries out the weather during the storm track period (late fall-early spring); convective storms aren't affected, and with increased hurricane activity, any drought that forms has strong chance of being made up.
jasons wrote:
A.V. wrote:You know its bad luck, and not geography, when places just across the state line have been rained on so many times.
Look, I share your frustration with the hot and dry weather, and this long-term drought we are in the midst of, but it is hardly unusual for Texas. If you disagree, pick up an old copy of Texas Weather by George Bomar, a former state climatologist. There is a whole chapter devoted to heat waves and droughts. It's nothing new. It has nothing to do with luck; it is purely the result of science based on our geographic location, ocean currents, climate patterns, etc.

There isn't some evil weather God out to get us, it's just nature. As JB says, "Enjoy the weather - it's the only weather you got!"

(PS, a little side note, I am proud to say I am the owner of a rare copy of the 1975 draft version of Texas Weather co-written by Harold Taft & Ron Godbey, before the Bomar version got re-written and widely published in 1983).
It is hardly unusual for TEXAS, but it doesn't mean that it is also hardly unusual for HOUSTON/BEAUMONT. It is well known that these heat/droughts have been becoming more potent than they used to; past years had droughts, but they were more confined to specific areas of Texas, and temperatures weren't as hot in conjunction. The single year of 2011 did more damage to the environment than the entire 1950s put together.
DoctorMu wrote:It is monsoon season. The Panhandle sees an uptick of rain this time of year as does New Mexico. Texas is a very large state...It is nearly an hour shorter to Pensacola as it is to Lubbock from Houston.
Yes, and even with that monsoon season, coastal SE Texas still sees more storms on average during July/August than the Panhandle. The averages will be obeyed.
DoctorMu wrote:Dude, you are definitely trolling. Mumbai is the height of miserable, monsoonal (flood/drought) weather. Almost inch of rain a day for 3-4 months and nary a trace for 7 months out of the year.
The rest of the year is indeed quite dry, but those summers are glorious.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:41 pm
by StormOne
It's funny how you promised to stop and then you wrote a grand reply. I hate the heat too, but it is a part of living here.

Death to this argument. My weather station is saying it's 101 here right now. I have every single fan on in the house, and that includes 1 desk fan, 2 floor fans, and every ceiling fan. This week is the week to splurge for comfort!

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:46 pm
by srainhoutx
Let's stop beating a dead horse. Fact, many folks across SE Texas including the Sabine River Area are still struggling with issues with the Spring Flooding. Some of our neighbors have yet to get some normality of life back after their homes flooded. While it has been warm, we are nowhere near the 46 days of 100F we witnessed in 2011. Let's move along and discuss the upcoming pattern change.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:58 pm
by djmike
Thank you Srain... Onward and upward!

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 4:03 pm
by Karen
All I can say is come on FALL :D

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 4:30 pm
by ticka1
Karen wrote:All I can say is come on FALL :D
yes indeed

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 4:52 pm
by DoctorMu
Ounce wrote:With glee I ask, that Low pressure off the coast of Alabama which seems to sit there, is that because of a lack of something steering it east? I guess that's called a cut off Low? Thanks.
You got it. The low is perched in an eddy. I'm hoping the Bermuda High will give it a noodge West.

On the other hand, any action in the Bay of Campeche could drift towards south Texas.


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Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 4:53 pm
by A.V.
One more thing I will say is that it is strange how Bush reaches 100F so frequently, and everywhere else around it is cooler. Not even College Station has near the amount of 100F days.

Other than UHI, and exhaust fumes from the airliners, the only thing I can think of is that the soils of the region may be sandy (it is natural pine forest, which tends to grow in sandy soils), and as sandy soil dries faster, the air also heats up faster, leading to more 100F temps than other areas with more poorly-drained soils.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 6:30 pm
by Andrew
A.V. wrote:One more thing I will say is that it is strange how Bush reaches 100F so frequently, and everywhere else around it is cooler. Not even College Station has near the amount of 100F days.

Other than UHI, and exhaust fumes from the airliners, the only thing I can think of is that the soils of the region may be sandy (it is natural pine forest, which tends to grow in sandy soils), and as sandy soil dries faster, the air also heats up faster, leading to more 100F temps than other areas with more poorly-drained soils.
Do you have factual evidence to support that claim? If so I would be happy to see it otherwise please stop with this type of conversation.

Re: August 2016: Isolated Rain Chances/Watching The N/NE GOM

Posted: Wed Aug 10, 2016 7:06 pm
by A.V.
Andrew wrote:Do you have factual evidence to support that claim? If so I would be happy to see it otherwise please stop with this type of conversation.
Compare NOAA observations for Bush IAH vs College Station. Bush Airport already recorded 6 days of 100F, meanwhile, College Station only has 2 days of such temps.

Then I put forth several plausible examples (UHI, soil, etc). Why else would Bush Airport be recording more frequent 100F than College Station (which is farther from the coast)? C'mon now.