September 2015: Pleasant Weather To End The Month

[djjordan]

SE Texas = Yawn!!!!!

Although that's not a bad thing. I'm sure eventually it will change. Happy Sunday everyone!!!! Go Texans!!!!

[mckinne63]

No kidding, one big YAWN! I think I need a nap. Go Texans!

[tireman4]

I am hearing from a long range guy that watch for September 28-October 4. Now, Srain and Wxman 57 can comment on this, but the end is near for Fall. Hang in there. It is coming. Climo dictates it. My runs need it.

[redneckweather]

For the love of creation, someone give us some good news!

[tireman4]

Well...same old same old from HGX...

00
FXUS64 KHGX 211120
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
620 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ONLY TAF SITE SEEING FOG IS LBX WHERE IT IS PATCHY. HIGH CLOUD
COVER IS EXTENSIVE THIS AM AND THIS IS LIMITING THE FOG. SOME
PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT -RA THIS AM. COULD SEE A FEW SHRA THIS AFT
BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIMITED. WILL SEE LESS
MID/HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. NE WINDS WILL BECOME SE LATER THIS
AFT...GENERALLY 5-10 KTS. 33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS A FEW LIGHT RETURNS FROM
NORTH OF BRENHAM TO CLEVELAND. A FINE LINE ON RADAR INDICATING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY PUSHED TOWARDS A COLUMBUS TO
ANGLETON LINE WITH VERY LIGHT NE WINDS BEHIND IT. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AND WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT WITH
THE BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THIS MORNING DUE TO A DECENT JET STREAK
AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH TEXAS ON UPPER AIR ANALYSIS.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
PUSH TROUGH THE AREA BY AFTERNOON WITH NW FLOW ALOFT. LATEST HRRR
/WRF-ARW GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED SO ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL
BE SHORT LIVED. FORECAST WILL KEEP 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE EVEN LESS THAN THAT.

LONG TERM...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES RATHER MESSY THIS
WEEK MAINLY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TEXAS
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW OVER THE SE U.S.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BUT THEN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NOW OVER NW MEXICO MOVES INTO THE S ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM RIDES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGINS TO MERGE WITH
THE CUTOFF SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS BROAD/WEAK LOW
REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE UP TO 850MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR NE/E FLOW TO DEVELOP
AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A DRIER AIRMASS. THE LACK OF MOISTURE
SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING
MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY LOWER MAX/MIN TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPS IN
THE 60S LOOK REASONABLE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE MORE ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND SO WILL
HAVE SOME 20 POPS IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL IT LOOKS
LIKE A WEEK OF QUIET WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

39

MARINE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL NE OF THE AREA AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS ARE EXPECTED AS LONG PERIOD SWELLS
PROPAGATE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 93 72 94 70 93 / 10 10 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 92 71 93 69 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 77 90 77 89 / 10 10 10 0 10

&&

[BlueJay]

I did feel about 15 rain drops early this morning but we certainly could use a nice late summer rain shower. The rain gauge says 0.79 inches this month...

[TxLady]

Okay, I know I'm asking for an "October-Beyond 10 Days" forecast, BUT...there's not a topic for it, yet! What does the crystal ball say for the first weekend in October? I'm hosting an event, that will hopefully be outside. Really looking forward to a nice cool Saturday Oct. 3 evening! Any luck? And, Thanks for any insight!

[wxman57]

Okay, I know I'm asking for an "October-Beyond 10 Days" forecast, BUT...there's not a topic for it, yet! What does the crystal ball say for the first weekend in October? I'm hosting an event, that will hopefully be outside. Really looking forward to a nice cool Saturday Oct. 3 evening! Any luck? And, Thanks for any insight!

Latest GFS run does indicate a very weak frontal passage in early October that's dependent upon what may or may not develop in the Gulf earlier next week. It's quite possible, though, that we don't see any significant cold front moving through Houston until the second week of October.

[stormlover]

Now Euro shows the tropical/hybrid system hitting texas

[srainhoutx]

I would be very careful regarding the various computer schemes beyond 3 to 5 days. The entire pattern is slowly transitioning across the Northern Hemisphere which leads to a lot of volatility even with the slightly more stable ensemble solutions. That said it looks wet across the Desert SW and possibly into Southern California and potentially unsettled across portions of the Gulf of Mexico during the coming weekend into the final days of September. I do not see any strong cold fronts dropping S into Texas at least in the believable range.

[Paul Robison]

Over the next seven days, the shortwave upper trough offshore of California that steered EPAC tropical depression sixteen-E into northwestern Mexico will slide eastward toward the Gulf of Mexico. Consequently, warm air advection ahead of a frontal cyclone moving into western Canada will amplify upper ridging to the northwest of the shortwave upper trough, thus causing the upper trough to amplify into a cutoff upper vortex over the western Gulf of Mexico. The GFS, Euro, & CMC models believe that upper divergence on the east side of the forecast cutoff upper will trigger a southern Gulf of Mexico disturbance in about seven days which could undergo tropical development in equally amplified and favorable upper ridging to the east of the cut-off upper vortex.

Note: The current run of the Euro frightens me.

[Texaspirate11]

Over the next seven days, the shortwave upper trough offshore of California that steered EPAC tropical depression sixteen-E into northwestern Mexico will slide eastward toward the Gulf of Mexico. Consequently, warm air advection ahead of a frontal cyclone moving into western Canada will amplify upper ridging to the northwest of the shortwave upper trough, thus causing the upper trough to amplify into a cutoff upper vortex over the western Gulf of Mexico. The GFS, Euro, & CMC models believe that upper divergence on the east side of the forecast cutoff upper will trigger a southern Gulf of Mexico disturbance in about seven days which could undergo tropical development in equally amplified and favorable upper ridging to the east of the cut-off upper vortex.

Note: The current run of the Euro frightens me.

Still a long way off, Paul.

[BiggieSmalls]

All a tropical system does is deflect cold fronts for another 7-10 days...hopefully it doesn't pan out.

[srainhoutx]

The feature currently moving ENE at the upper levels (500mb) over Arizona/New Mexico will be a big player in what we can expect regarding our sensible weather and if something attempts to develop in the NW Caribbean Sea this weekend. The latest 12Z GFS takes that 500mb upper air disturbance and suddenly drops it S into S Texas this weekend and wraps it up into a compact upper low. A surface reflection or low pressure area moves N towards the Louisiana Coast, but never develops. If that upper low is actually in S Texas this weekend into early next week, wind shear would be too strong and would do nothing but enhance Coastal and offshore showers and storms. That said the GFS took a step toward the Euro solution of a low pressure anomaly over S Texas later this weekend into early next week. The global models are clearly struggling with the pattern and I just do not have any confidence that this is anything more than a potential rain maker along and S of the HWY 59 Corridor.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Update from the HPC/WPC suggests a weak 1008mb frontal low in the Central Gulf next week.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Upper level ridging that has been in place for the last several days bringing unseasonably warm weather and dry conditions will slowly break down and move westward.

Upper level ridging will begin to move westward on Wednesday allowing a trough of low pressure to develop near the TX coast by this weekend. Will maintain hot (low to mid 90’s) for Wednesday before a cooling trend for the end of the week and weekend. An upper level disturbance rounding the eastern flank of the upper ridge on Thursday and Friday may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to areas east of I-45 and across the Gulf waters, but most of the area will remain dry.

More notable changes onset over the weekend as the weakness develops into a closed upper level low over coastal TX. The exact placement of this feature will be a big determining factor on weekend rain chances especially on Sunday. The ECMWF is more westward with this placement of this feature (off the lower TX coast) allowing a deeper moisture profile to spread into SE TX on Sunday while the GFS is closer to the coast or offshore over the NW Gulf of Mexico keeping SE TX on the drier and subsident side of the upper level trough. There has been little model agreement on how this upper trough will play out over the last several days and this vast disagreement continues today yielding a less than confident forecast especially Sunday onward.

To add more complications to the forecast is yet the global models again calling for lowering surface pressures over the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend or early next week. This appears to be a function of a tropical wave moving NW out of either the Caribbean Sea or eastern Pacific Ocean and then coming under the favorable upper level venting of the S TX upper level trough. Solutions on tropical development are all over the place with varying tracks and intensities…sounds familiar to a couple of weeks ago. There is some overall general consensus on the favored location of lower surface pressures over the Bay of Campeche into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as supported by both the operational and ensemble model members. Upper level troughs tend to favor surface low formation on their eastern flanks due to rising air, but there is usually some degree of upper level wind shear to deal with. For now will just have to watch and see how things begin to unfold with the upper level trough and then attempt to resolve what may transpire over the Gulf early next week.

Aside: 10 years ago today 897mb (180mph) category 5 Hurricane Rita was over the central Gulf of Mexico. This set into motion one of the largest evacuations in US history along the upper TX and SW LA coasts. Rita would ultimately go on to make landfall early on the 24th just east of Sabine Pass (Holly Beach, LA) as a 120mph category 3 hurricane.

[Paul Robison]

Afternoon briefing from Jeff:

Upper level ridging that has been in place for the last several days bringing unseasonably warm weather and dry conditions will slowly break down and move westward.

Upper level ridging will begin to move westward on Wednesday allowing a trough of low pressure to develop near the TX coast by this weekend. Will maintain hot (low to mid 90’s) for Wednesday before a cooling trend for the end of the week and weekend. An upper level disturbance rounding the eastern flank of the upper ridge on Thursday and Friday may bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to areas east of I-45 and across the Gulf waters, but most of the area will remain dry.

More notable changes onset over the weekend as the weakness develops into a closed upper level low over coastal TX. The exact placement of this feature will be a big determining factor on weekend rain chances especially on Sunday. The ECMWF is more westward with this placement of this feature (off the lower TX coast) allowing a deeper moisture profile to spread into SE TX on Sunday while the GFS is closer to the coast or offshore over the NW Gulf of Mexico keeping SE TX on the drier and subsident side of the upper level trough. There has been little model agreement on how this upper trough will play out over the last several days and this vast disagreement continues today yielding a less than confident forecast especially Sunday onward.

To add more complications to the forecast is yet the global models again calling for lowering surface pressures over the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this weekend or early next week. This appears to be a function of a tropical wave moving NW out of either the Caribbean Sea or eastern Pacific Ocean and then coming under the favorable upper level venting of the S TX upper level trough. Solutions on tropical development are all over the place with varying tracks and intensities…sounds familiar to a couple of weeks ago. There is some overall general consensus on the favored location of lower surface pressures over the Bay of Campeche into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as supported by both the operational and ensemble model members. Upper level troughs tend to favor surface low formation on their eastern flanks due to rising air, but there is usually some degree of upper level wind shear to deal with. For now will just have to watch and see how things begin to unfold with the upper level trough and then attempt to resolve what may transpire over the Gulf early next week.

Aside: 10 years ago today 897mb (180mph) category 5 Hurricane Rita was over the central Gulf of Mexico. This set into motion one of the largest evacuations in US history along the upper TX and SW LA coasts. Rita would ultimately go on to make landfall early on the 24th just east of Sabine Pass (Holly Beach, LA) as a 120mph category 3 hurricane.

Oh, Srainhoutex:

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW PTS SHOULD ALLOW
MIN TEMPS TO COOL A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER FROM THIS MORNINGS LOW
TEMPS. THE SREF ENSEMBLE IS ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FOG OVER THE SW ZONES AND WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. THE
RIDGE RETREATS WEST ON THURSDAY AND 500 HEIGHTS LOWER. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SE TX FROM THE NE AND COULD GENERATE
SOME SHRA BUT THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OVER THE
GULF. NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND PRECIP THAN EITHER
THE GFS OR ECMWF ON THU/FRI. THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR AN UPPER
LEVEL WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD COME LOWER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES. MODELS DIFFER IN THE DETAILS BUT LOOK RATHER SIMILAR
WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ALONG THE
COAST AND TREND LOWER INLAND FOR SAT-MON. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO
SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTH ON TUES/WED BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE SW.
300 MB WINDS OVER THE GULF LOOK RATHER STRONG SO THERE LOOKS TO BE
TOO MUCH SHEAR. THIS SHOULD KEEP WHATEVER DEVELOPS WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED. NONE THE LESS...IT IS SOMETHING THAT BEARS WATCH.

WELCOME TO AUTUMN! (Heh-heh-heh) IT BEGINS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT 321 AM CDT.
43

I'd say nothing we have to board up the windows for, eh?

[Katdaddy]

A mostly sunny today and Thursday across SE TX. A weak disturbance and trough axis will lead to a chance of of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend mainly near the coastal areas.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ida, located about 1000 miles east of the northern Leeward
Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure could form early next week over the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Development, if any, should be slow to
occur as the system drifts northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 20 percent

Forecaster Avila

[srainhoutx]

The Tropical Cyclone Genesis Ensembles were likely the main reason the NHC gave this potential development a nod. I still believe that upper level winds may be a big hindering factor for any real development other than a rain maker along and offshore of the Coastal Waters of the Central and NE Gulf of Mexico. Also if you'll recall the models have been all over the place and have changed from run to run. I do not see this as a wind event for SE Texas at this time or any area along Coastal Texas.