July - Hot & Muggy To End The Month

[Katdaddy]

Hey Paul my League City neighbor! Yep I remember Chantal 1989 well. I remember being moms in Pearland in the backyard and got blown over by very strong gust that snapped some large branches out of our pine trees. Time to watch and see but we need the rainfall.

[PaulEInHouston]

Howdy and great to meet ya!

Of interest too (and just an aside) is during the 1989 season Jerry arrived as well (also a name for this season); the two previous storms were Allison (retired) in June and Chantal in August. When it hit, it marked the most number of Texas landfalls in one season since 1886! The pattern this year, with the long range hintings of a strengthening and elongating Bermuda high may drive any tropical systems toward the GOM with FL crossings as well. This season doesn't "appear" to be a "fish" season when the CV systems start to line up from the African coast in August/Sept.

[djmike]

Wait. I'm confused. Why are the models wanting to bring this into Brownsville? I thought 94L was headed to the upper TX coast. What just happened?

[srainhoutx]

Wait. I'm confused. Why are the models wanting to bring this into Brownsville? I thought 94L was headed to the upper TX coast. What just happened?

The first set of 18Z track models are based on statistical data and no actual model or Hurricane guidance criteria. I'd wait until the 00Z or the 12Z track tomorrow...

[PaulEInHouston]

Wait. I'm confused. Why are the models wanting to bring this into Brownsville? I thought 94L was headed to the upper TX coast. What just happened?

Models are just initializing now and there's quite a bit of disparity when they start. NAM and Navgem have been showing a Northerly track while GFS has been trying to latch on to system/weak open low and move it towards TX/LA and points East. Point of it all is that's it's a slow mover with little steering forces since it's a weak system. As the trough lifts out, it will drag the system along with it, bringing "hopefully" much needed rain! As srain says above, I believe the 00 and 12Z tracks will have a better handle on future tracks.

[Texas Pirate]

8 p.m. NHC still has this at 20%...we best get rain by Galveston Bay, that's all I'm sayin....

part of disco:



THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS COASTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[Paul Robison]

Wait. I'm confused. Why are the models wanting to bring this into Brownsville? I thought 94L was headed to the upper TX coast. What just happened?

Models are just initializing now and there's quite a bit of disparity when they start. NAM and Navgem have been showing a Northerly track while GFS has been trying to latch on to system/weak open low and move it towards TX/LA and points East. Point of it all is that's it's a slow mover with little steering forces since it's a weak system. As the trough lifts out, it will drag the system along with it, bringing "hopefully" much needed rain! As srain says above, I believe the 00 and 12Z tracks will have a better handle on future tracks.

This GFS graphic shows the low over Brownsville too. Explain what you mean.

[PaulEInHouston]

The GFS hasn't latched on to any system in the GOM/BOC this week. The graphic you posted shows multiple low pressure areas and nothing that appears closed off. This may well be the case as the system is fighting many obstacles. The NAM however shows a closed system and is taking it towards the TX/LA border...which one to believe, amongst all the models available, is anyone's guess. I'm no pro, nor claim to be, just try to ingest what I see and "guess" with the best of them.

[Rip76]

@Paul.

Well if it shoots the middle, we're good.

[djmike]

What time do we get to see the next released models?

[Paul Robison]

The GFS hasn't latched on to any system in the GOM/BOC this week. The graphic you posted shows multiple low pressure areas and nothing that appears closed off. This may well be the case as the system is fighting many obstacles. The NAM however shows a closed system and is taking it towards the TX/LA border...which one to believe, amongst all the models available, is anyone's guess. I'm no pro, nor claim to be, just try to ingest what I see and "guess" with the best of them.

I guess you mean this:





But is it a tropical storm or strong hurricane?

[PaulEInHouston]

That's a precipitation model...useful, yes! No tropical storm or hurricane in my opinion. A rain-maker...we all hope! The farther North and West it moves, the better chances for rain over S/Central and S/E Texas/LA.

[djmike]

I thought updated models were up at 8pm. Are they not? What time can we look for the updated models?

[Scott747]

What time do we get to see the next released models?

Given that there hasn't been much shown by the reliable models I'm not sure how much value they will have this late into the evolution. The interesting part of the GFS will be done by 10ish and the hurricane models (if they run) should be out around midnight. Euro at 2, 1:30 for paid members.

*edit*

My mistake on the GFS. Was momentarily on Eastern time. Starts running at 10:30 and the main interest on 94l should be done by 11ish.

[djmike]

What time do we get to see the next released models?

Given that there hasn't been much shown by the reliable models I'm not sure how much value they will have this late into the evolution. The interesting part of the GFS will be done by 10ish and the hurricane models (if they run) should be out around midnight. Euro at 2, 1:30 for paid members.

Gotcha. Thanks Scott!

[Scott747]

No problem. We should get some 0z guidance based on 18z data here in the next hour. Not sure it will be all that enlightening.

[Paul Robison]

Does this help?





And remember, given the time of year, the potential is always there even though the current guidance is lacking in tropical development. Hey, if nothing else, this'll at least be a good practice run/preparedness for later in the season.

[djmike]

What's the latest GFS looking like? Anyone?

[djmike]

<crickets>

[skidog40]

don't fall asleep. things can change