October: Warm & Dry To End The Month

[Portastorm]

What is commonly referred to as an "overrunning event." Light rain.

Now ... in the brief period we call "winter" in south central and southeast Texas ... if the airmass is crazy cold and you have a similar setup, you can see some icy/wintry precip events out of this kind of pattern. But of course, nothing like that this time.

[Belmer]

I'm traveling to Oklahoma this weekend. There is a 30% chance of "rain" on Friday with, as of now, highs in the upper 40s with a low of about 34. Seeing as that "rain" will probably be early Friday morning into early Friday afternoon, I was really hoping it would stick around till the overnight hours into Saturday for that "rain" to turn into the "s" word.

Not looking to hopeful right now. But one thing for sure, I'm going to have to pack my winter gear this weekend as it will be chilly with a howling north wind on Saturday probably making temperatures in the feels like range of 34-38 degrees and feels like lows in the low to mid 20s.

[tireman4]

We're going to have zonal flow aloft with a shallow cold airmass. Hmmm ... let's hope that continues for the next few months! [/quote]


Indeed young Porta, indeed.

[JackCruz]

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2012/

DISCUSSION...
WARM MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR TWO MORE DAYS. SAT PIX
SHOW A FEW THIN WAVES/BANDS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING WWD
ACROSS THE NRN GULF. AS PREVIOUS FCSTER ALLUDED TO...BETTER SHOT
OF ISOLATED SHRA WILL PROBABLY BE THURS AS UPPER RIDGE SOMEWHAT
WEAKENS OVERHEAD.

JUST SOME PRETTY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE REST OF THE FCST. STILL SOME
6-9 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT THINK
OVERALL SCENARIO WILL CONSIST OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU
NRN PARTS OF SE TX JUST BEFORE SUNRISE FRI AND PROBABLY OFF THE
COAST BY EARLY AFTN (AND QUITE POSSIBLY SOONER). AGREE WITH
CURRENT GRIDS DEPICTING FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. TWEAKED THEM
DOWN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER AND MAY NEED TO CONTINUE DOING SO IF
EARLY FROPA/CLOUDS/CAA ADVECTION TRENDS CONTINUE. SCT SHRA/TSRA
STILL LOOK POSSIBLE BUT BEST DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN TO THE N SO
SUSPECT NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE PRECIP. CLOUDS LOOK TO STICK AROUND
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SAT. STILL SOME CONCERN ON SUNDAY (LOOKING
AT RH`S AROUND H7) BUT WILL GO WITH GRADUAL CLEARING FOR NOW. ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER...AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT
ON TEMPS.

HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
ONSHORE WINDS TO RESUME ON TUES. GRADUAL WARMING TREND THEN
EXPECTED. 47



Hopefully the cloud cover doesn't stick around for too long, or starts clearing in the evening so we can drop into the lower 40s and maybe some upper 30s. That'll be fun!

[JackCruz]

Discussion

Much colder air building over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada will take its time in reaching the Lone Star State. Most of the computer models place the arrival of cA>cPk dome in Houston around Friday morning. Before that time, the flow of air from the Gulf of Mexico should keep things suitably warm/hot and humid until that time. The air mass may be unstable enough to support a shower or thunderstorm anytime from late Wednesday into early afternoon Friday, but I am not expecting any severe weather.

Once the front comes through, windy and much cooler conditions will take over, with beautiful weather Saturday through next Tuesday. Just how cool we get in Houston depends on large part on how Tropical Storm (likely to be Hurricane soon) Sandy interacts with the trough moving through the nation. I currently favor the ECMWF model solution, which besides hammering the Northeast with incredible wind and rain, would pump up a blocking ridge between Greenland and Newfoundland. If so, Texas and the Old South would get stuck in a pattern of below normal temperatures through mid-November. Many of the model ensemble packages point towards a storm targeting Texas around November 3 - 4, with heavy stratiform rain and gusty winds.
http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... er-24-2012

Hopefully this verifies.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance has come into better agreement suggesting the much talked about Polar Cold Front arriving a tad faster on Friday. The frontal boundary looks to enter the Hill Country Thursday night and race toward the Coast by mid day Friday. Temps should fall rapidly behind the front to the upper 50's to low 60's depending on your location. Jackets should be necessary for those heading out the door Friday morning and scattered rains with possible storms as the cold front makes it way through the area. Some post frontal light rain is possible into Friday night/early Saturday as overrunning conditions continue. We may see some clearing late Saturday and temps may well drop to the upper 30's to lower 40's N of Metro Houston Saturday night/early Sunday. More later on the potential Major East Coast Storm and TS Sandy that is strengthening S of Jamaica this morning.


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE CONUS/CANADA ON FRIDAY...WITH A SECONDARY/SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THIS TROUGH EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE
RELEGATED TO AREAS NEAR/AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
FROM THE OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS TO TX. A COMBINATION OF WEAK
INSTABILITY/POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND/OR WEAKENING MASS
CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE OF TSTMS...WITH NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE...PER LATEST NHC TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE...TROPICAL
SYSTEM SANDY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR FOR NEAR-LAND
SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

..GUYER.. 10/24/2012

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Big changes on the way!

Cold air mass over Alaska and NW Canada with temperatures below 0 this morning will be on the move over the next 24-48 hours as the zonal pattern over the US buckles and amplifies allowing some of this cold air to dump southward down the plains. Until then the warm and humid conditions…Indian summer…will continue with lows in the upper 60’s and highs near 90 under breezy south winds. Temperatures are running about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Changes begin tomorrow as the strong cold front surges rapidly down the plains into TX as the Gulf of Mexico ridging flattens some as a strong trough develops over the plains. Models continue to speed up the frontal timing and the boundary should reach our NW counties early Friday morning and plow off the coast by mid-afternoon Friday. Moisture pools slightly ahead of the boundary late Thursday afternoon into Friday morning and expect a few scattered showers on Thursday afternoon with heating and then along the front Friday morning. Not looking a much accumulation of rainfall with this system with the main dynamics well to our NE. A few locations may manage a half an inch, but most locations will total less than that.

Bigger story will be the onset of strong cold air advection and rapid temperature fall. Expect highs to be pre front on Friday with temperatures falling during the afternoon hours for all locations. Upstream air mass over N TX will have little modification potential as clouds and periods of light rain hold temperatures in that area in the 50’s on Friday. Expect temperatures to fall from the 80’s to the 60’s with the frontal passage and then into the upper 50’s north of a Brenham to Conroe to Livingston line during the afternoon hours. Clouds and light rain will be possible into Friday night as moisture upglides over the cold dome at the surface. NW winds will howl behind the front in the 15-25mph range making it feel colder than the actual air temperatures.

Forecast over the weekend is tricky as the temperatures depend greatly on the amount of cloud cover. Latest GFS shows less cloud cover on Saturday allowing more sun and warmer afternoon highs (near 70) compared to the previous forecast of a thick overcast and highs in the lower 60’s. Will split the difference and go with highs in the mid 60’s with cloudy skies in the morning becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. If clouds linger longer, then highs on Saturday will be closer to 60. If skies can clear out, the coldest morning will be Sunday with lows into the 40’s for most locations, should clouds linger, lows will be near 50. Same set up for Sunday as for Saturday as the temperature forecast will be heavily based on sky cover…although there is a better chance of seeing more sun on Sunday.

Onshore winds should return early next week, but Gulf moisture return will be slowed by strong frontal penetration and powerful storm system progged over the west Atlantic waters.

TS Sandy:
Strong tropical storm heading for the island of Jamaica this morning. Sandy has become well organized on satellite images with deep convective banding developing over the center in the past few hours. The last recon aircraft recorded winds just below hurricane intensity and it is likely that Sandy will become a hurricane shortly. There has been little change to the overall track reasoning in the past 24 hours with Sandy moving N to NNE at an increasing rate of speed influenced by a trough to the west. This will take Sandy across Jamaica and eastern Cuba and then the central Bahamas in the next 48 hours. Sandy has about 12-18 hours of favorable upper air conditions and warm water before the system begins to interact with the mountains of eastern Cuba and increasing SW wind shear. Expect the system to peak in the next 12 hours as a hurricane and then begin a slow weakening.

After 48 hours Sandy will become increasingly entangled in the baroclinic processes off the SE US coast and all forecast models show the wind field greatly expanding between high pressure over the NE US and the low pressure associated with Sandy. This expanding wind field requires TS Watches to be issued for the FL SE coast and the FL Keys. Beyond 72 hours most guidance take Sandy as a very large system out to the NE or ENE into the western Atlantic while the ECMWF brings a powerful extra-tropical cyclone (Nor’easter) northward along the US east coast and inland over the NE US. The other guidance generally show Sandy moving out to sea, but also show secondary low pressure forming off the NE US coast with some influences from Sandy. Potential is there for a fairly significant coastal storm system off the NE US coast next week.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Morning Update regarding the East Coast Storm Potential for those that are following:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
949 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 28 2012 - 12Z WED OCT 31 2012


...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/24 GEFS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. WITH ALL THE ACTION ALONG THE EAST
COAST, THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE AWASH IN PACIFIC
AIR, WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEAN SERVING THOSE REGIONS WELL, CONSIDERING
THE INHERENT TIMING ISSUES IN THE MORE OPEN FLOW THERE. THE USE OF
THE MEAN FOR THE EAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACILITATES MORE
LEEWAY TO ADJUST SANDY'S TRACK AS NEEDED BASED ON LATER FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AS WELL AS THE PROBLEMATIC
POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE.

WITH REGARD TO SANDY'S ULTIMATE FATE VIS A VIS THE AMPLIFIED POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EAST, THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS AMONG THE
GUIDANCE FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, PARTICULARLY WITH
REGARD TO THE WHOLE OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z/23 GFS AND GEM
GLOBAL, ARE OUTLIERS TO THE MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE BROTHERS
AND SISTERS, WITH THE LION'S SHARE OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATING A WHOLESALE INCORPORATION OF SANDY'S POST-TROPICAL
CIRCULATION INTO THE UPPER VORTEX CLOSING OVER THE CONTINENT. THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN SEEMS DESTINED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY BLOCKY
HIGHS AND LOWS, WITH DECREASING WIGGLE ROOM FOR EVEN LARGE
FEATURES LIKE SANDY. THE BLOCKING IS KEY TO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC STORM OF TROPICAL ORIGIN AND
THE NORTH AMERICAN VORTEX OF POLAR ORIGIN. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT SPIN UP A TREMENDOUSLY DEEP
SURFACE LOW BACK ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LONG ISLAND
INCLUDE THE 00Z/24 ECMWF, 00Z/24 NOGAPS, AND 06Z/24 GLOBAL
HURRICANE MODEL. IF IT BECOMES CLEARER WITH THE ADVENT OF THE
12Z/24 GUIDANCE THAT A LARGE HYBRID LOW IS LIKELY DAY 6, WILL
ADJUST THE FINAL PROGS TOWARD A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD ROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE MANUAL FORECAST AND DEEPEN THE
PRESSURE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE LUNAR CYCLE WILL PROVE TO BE A FACTOR
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH HIGH TIDES MOST
ANOMALOUS FROM THAT EFFECT ALONE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER THE
FULL MOON ON SUNDAY.

CISCO

[srainhoutx]

Big shift W with the 12Z GFS regarding the potential major EC Storm that originates from Hurricane Sandy...

[JackCruz]

Which seems more likely, the GFS or the European (favoring colder conditions). Can NW Harris Country dip into the upper 30s
Winter is here, finally.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Man, that could be one of those generational storms up there.

[djjordan]

Perhaps TWC (The Weather Channel) might have to name this storm LOL.

[srainhoutx]

What an extremely complicated and concerning forecast developing for everyone along the Mid Atlantic on up to the Canadian Maritimes regarding Hurricane/Post Tropical Storm Sandy for early next week. It's certainly not everyday you see a request for special RAOB launches every 6 hour from Coast to Coast...

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1813Z WED OCT 24 2012

DUE TO THE HIGH VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF
HURRICANE SANDY.. SPECIAL SOUNDINGS ARE REQUESTED
BEGINNING 18Z THURSDAY 25 OCT 2012... ALL REGIONAL
DIRECTORS HAVE APPROVED THE SPECIAL SOUNDING RELEASE
SCHEDULE BELOW.. IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS CONTACT YOUR
REGION OR THE SDM...

***SPECIAL 06Z/18Z SOUNDING REQUESTS***

WESTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

CENTRAL REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

EASTERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

SOUTHERN REGION THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

--------------------------------------

THE RELEASE SCHEDULE WILL BE EVALUATED AS THE SITUATION
EVOLVES...


SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP



EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 27 2012 - 12Z WED OCT 31 2012


...CHANCES INCREASING FOR A MAJOR STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/24 GEFS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. WITH ALL THE ACTION ALONG THE EAST
COAST, THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES ARE AWASH IN PACIFIC
AIR, WITH AN ENSEMBLE MEAN SERVING THOSE REGIONS WELL, CONSIDERING
THE INHERENT TIMING ISSUES IN THE MORE OPEN FLOW THERE. THE USE OF
THE MEAN FOR THE EAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN FACILITATES MORE
LEEWAY TO ADJUST SANDY'S TRACK AS NEEDED BASED ON LATER FORECASTS
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, AS WELL AS THE PROBLEMATIC
POST-TROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE.

WITH REGARD TO SANDY'S ULTIMATE FATE VIS A VIS THE AMPLIFIED POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EAST, THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS AMONG THE
GUIDANCE FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, PARTICULARLY WITH
REGARD TO THE WHOLE OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS, IN THE CASE OF THE 00Z/23 GFS AND GEM
GLOBAL, ARE OUTLIERS TO THE MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE BROTHERS
AND SISTERS, WITH THE LION'S SHARE OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATING A WHOLESALE INCORPORATION OF SANDY'S POST-TROPICAL
CIRCULATION INTO THE UPPER VORTEX CLOSING OVER THE CONTINENT. THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN SEEMS DESTINED TO BECOME DOMINATED BY BLOCKY
HIGHS AND LOWS, WITH DECREASING WIGGLE ROOM FOR EVEN LARGE
FEATURES LIKE SANDY. THE BLOCKING IS KEY TO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC STORM OF TROPICAL ORIGIN AND
THE NORTH AMERICAN VORTEX OF POLAR ORIGIN. SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE DETERMINISTIC MODELS THAT SPIN UP A TREMENDOUSLY DEEP
SURFACE LOW BACK ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LONG ISLAND
INCLUDE THE 00Z/24 ECMWF, 00Z/24 NOGAPS, AND 06Z/24 GLOBAL
HURRICANE MODEL. IF IT BECOMES CLEARER WITH THE ADVENT OF THE
12Z/24 GUIDANCE THAT A LARGE HYBRID LOW IS LIKELY DAY 6, WILL
ADJUST THE FINAL PROGS TOWARD A DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION, WHICH
WOULD ROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE MANUAL FORECAST AND DEEPEN THE
PRESSURE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE LUNAR CYCLE WILL PROVE TO BE A FACTOR
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING, WITH HIGH TIDES MOST
ANOMALOUS FROM THAT EFFECT ALONE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTER THE
FULL MOON ON SUNDAY.


FINAL...

MADE ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. TWO OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL HOLDOUTS FOR A
CONSOLIDATED EAST COAST STORM FROM THE 00Z/24 CYCLE, THE GFS AND
GEM GLOBAL, SWITCHED TO THE MERGER CAMP FOR THE 12Z/24 RUN, ALBEIT
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREFERRED CLUSTER. THE 12Z/24 GEFS MEAN
TRENDED DEEPER THAN THE 00Z/24 VERSION, WITH A GREATER NUMBER OF
WOUND-UP MEMBERS, CENTERED OVER NEW YORK CITY ON THE MORNING OF
DAY 6. THE 12Z/24 ECMWF TRACKS SANDY WEST OF THE BOTH THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY PART OF
THE SHORT RANGE, ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION TO BE CAPTURED BY THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH SOONER, ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA DAY 5.

THE PARTICULARS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
LATITUDE AT WHICH THE ANTICIPATED MERGER TAKES PLACE- A POINT TO
BE REFINED IN THE COMING DAYS. IN GENERAL, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND
HIGH WINDS CLOSE TO WHERE THE POST-TROPICAL CORE OF SANDY TRACKS,
WITH HEAVY SNOWS IN A CRESCENT ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MERGED
VORTEX. THE BEST BET FOR SUBSTANTIAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, THOUGH EVEN ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS
OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
MEASURABLE SNOW.

CISCO

[Ptarmigan]

I wonder what impact Sandy could have on the cold front.

[srainhoutx]

The overnight guidance suggests the strong cold front will arrive across our Northern Areas before sunrise on Friday and will reach the Coast by mid day with a broken line of showers/storms possible with temps falling to the 50's N and the low 60's near the Coastal Areas. Clouds with gusty N to NW winds and perhaps some light rain appear possible into Friday night as temps fall into the 40's and 50's during the overnight hours. Skies should begin to clear on Saturday as high pressure builds in and winds decouple allowing for temps to fall into the upper 30's N and 40's to the S. Even with clear skies, temps may struggle to rise out of the 60's before a return flow becomes established on Tuesday. More on Hurricane Sandy later but it does appear the Mid Atlantic and NE will be dealing with a Major Nor' Easter type storm with High Winds, Coastal Flooding and Heavy Snowfall inland early next week for those with travel plans to the EC...

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Local big story will be the arrival of a strong cold front tonight, but eyes will be trained to the east coast this weekend as powerful Hurricane Sandy takes potential aim at the NE US.

A separate e-mail will be drafted to detail the possible impacts from powerful Hurricane Sandy.

Pattern aloft is transiting to troughing in the east US and building heights in the western US which will help amplify the central/eastern US trough. A strong old front currently extends from southeast KS to NW TX this morning with temperatures in the post frontal air mass in the lower 40’s with strong NW winds of 25-35mph. Locally over the area, slightly deeper moisture has moved westward overnight from the central Gulf of Mexico and this is producing two bands of inland moving streamer showers over the area. The first and more pronounced band extends from just east of Matagorda Bay NNE to Huntsville with a second band approaching the mouth of the Sabine River. With deeper moisture in place compared to previous days, expect a continuation of scattered showers through much of the day and into the evening hours.

Strong cold front will arrive into the area after midnight tonight and highs temperatures will be recorded prior to frontal passage. Convergence along the boundary will likely yield a band of showers and maybe a thunderstorm, but factors for heavy rainfall or severe weather are not in place. Strong cold air advection will onset post front with gusty NW winds and temperatures holding steady in the 60’s or falling into the upper 50’s north of I-10. Skies will be slow to clear behind the boundary and patchy light rain may continue into Friday evening.

Lows Saturday morning under cold air advection will fall into the lower 50’s and upper 40’s even with cloudy skies and gusty winds. Clouds should gradually clear from north to south Saturday and this may allow highs to reach the mid 60’s, but any slower clearing will result in much colder afternoon highs in the 50’s.

Clear skies and light winds Saturday night will setup the coldest night in a long time for the area. Forecasted dewpoints in the 30’s will support widespread low temperatures in the lower 40’s and upper 30’s. Forecasted dewpoints in the College Station area on the GFS model are from 30-34 degrees, and if conditions are perfect, some sheltered northern locations could fall to the mid 30’s.

Cold start on Sunday morning will result in a cool day even with mostly sunny skies. Highs will only reach the upper 60’s under light NE winds.

Extended:
As potential major eastern US storm system (Hurricane Sandy) moves toward the NE US early next week, surface high pressure will begin to shift eastward allowing weak onshore flow to return. Gulf of Mexico will be worked over by the upcoming front, and tropical moisture return will be slow. Expect only a slow modification in temperature and humidity values into next week.

[srainhoutx]

HPC Update offers some comic relief for those along the East Coast early next week:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
942 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z THU NOV 01 2012


...HIGH IMPACT MERGING OF ENERGETIC SYSTEMS ANTICIPATED OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST...


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

DESPITE A MODEST CLUSTER OF OUTLYING DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AND
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELING CENTERS, THE LION'S
SHARE OF GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE SANDY WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO BECOME INCORPORATED INTO
A HYBRID VORTEX OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST NEXT TUESDAY.
THE HIGH DEGREE OF BLOCKING FROM EASTERN NORTH AMERICA ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC BASIN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THIS UNUSUAL MERGER TO
TAKE PLACE, AND ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD
SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN,
INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE
LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC
CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.

AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, WHEN ONE PART OF THE NATION IS EXPERIENCING
A VERY ENERGETIC ATMOSPHERE DISTURBANCE, THE REMAINDER IS
RELATIVELY CALM. THIS EVENT SHOULD NOT PROVE THE EXCEPTION, WITH A
FAIRLY BENIGN FEED OF PACIFIC AIR INTO MOST OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL STATES. THE FAR WEST, PARTICULAR NORTH OF CALIFORNIA, WILL
HAVE ENOUGH SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW TO KEEP THE PERIOD WET AND
UNSETTLED.


CISCO

[Portastorm]

Frontal passage expected here in Austin around 8 or 9 this evening. Sure is funny how two days ago the front wasn't supposed to move through until Friday late morning/early afternoon. This happens every fall/winter in Texas. Models just about always, ALWAYS can't handle these fronts.

[srainhoutx]

The cold front is racing S toward Abilene and appears to be ahead of schedule. The 12Z GFS is suggesting the front will be nearing to Coast tomorrow morning in the pre dawn hours. Temps may well struggle to get out of the 50's all day tomorrow is the guidance is correct.

[tireman4]

You can see the front. It is really moving....

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... in%2c%20TX

You may have to scroll up....