January 2025

[tireman4]

Euro ( Wxman 57's take on it, "Looking at the EC soundings, that freezing rain area looks more like sleet for SE TX."

We should certainly have a pretty good idea of what kind of precip type to expect around this weekend. We need models to converge on how deep the cold air surges south in all levels. I would prefer precip to start off as snow, but usually it starts off as freezing rain or sleet due to a warm air inversion above the surface. The depth and intensity of the inversion will ultimately determine precip type and I think it's still way too early to know what to expect.

I agree with you Captain. We need runs almost into Sunday to really nail this down. Right now, it is a guessing game. I am still trying to be on the fence on this because an ice storm will be an absolute mess (read freezing rain). Is there cold air coming? Yes. Will there be moisture available with it? It is looking very strongly like it will be. What form will it be? I am thinking even early Sunday runs before we get a clear eye on this.

[sambucol]

EPS/ GEPS reload the pattern again at days 10-12 , absolutely crazy

How strong, and would it probably head our way in setx ?

[vci_guy2003]

Pretty amazing that what we’ll be talking about for days is what kind of frozen precip we’ll get lol

[Stratton20]

sambucol definitely to early to know, but it favors more dumps of arctic air into the western and central us into february, more se ridging showing up, that could also lead to a winter weather battle zone, pattern could continue to favor cold snaps through a good chunk of february before we start to warm up for good

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro ( Wxman 57's take on it, "Looking at the EC soundings, that freezing rain area looks more like sleet for SE TX."

We should certainly have a pretty good idea of what kind of precip type to expect around this weekend. We need models to converge on how deep the cold air surges south in all levels. I would prefer precip to start off as snow, but usually it starts off as freezing rain or sleet due to a warm air inversion above the surface. The depth and intensity of the inversion will ultimately determine precip type and I think it's still way too early to know what to expect.

I agree with you Captain. We need runs almost into Sunday to really nail this down. Right now, it is a guessing game. I am still trying to be on the fence on this because an ice storm will be an absolute mess (read freezing rain). Is there cold air coming? Yes. Will there be moisture available with it? It is looking very strongly like it will be. What form will it be? I am thinking even early Sunday runs before we get a clear eye on this.

I will say I am leaning more towards the Euro currently as it has been far more consistent run to run compared to the GFS. The GFS can't even seem to decide if it wants to make a winter storm or not.

[tireman4]

12 noon update. By the way, it will warm up into the 60s tomorrow Friday and even Saturday. Enjoy while you can.





.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1156 AM CST Wed Jan 15 2025

Areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through
this evening as a system of low pressure continues to supply low
level moisture while an upper level trough moves across the
Southern Plains. This may result in periods of MVFR vis/cigs,
mainly for sites south of CXO. Later this afternoon into this
evening, rainfall will ebb from north to south as drier air
filters in from the north. Cloud decks are expected to scatter out
during the overnight hours, with much of the region under clear
skies by sunrise. Expect light N winds tonight into Thu.

[tireman4]

We should certainly have a pretty good idea of what kind of precip type to expect around this weekend. We need models to converge on how deep the cold air surges south in all levels. I would prefer precip to start off as snow, but usually it starts off as freezing rain or sleet due to a warm air inversion above the surface. The depth and intensity of the inversion will ultimately determine precip type and I think it's still way too early to know what to expect.

I agree with you Captain. We need runs almost into Sunday to really nail this down. Right now, it is a guessing game. I am still trying to be on the fence on this because an ice storm will be an absolute mess (read freezing rain). Is there cold air coming? Yes. Will there be moisture available with it? It is looking very strongly like it will be. What form will it be? I am thinking even early Sunday runs before we get a clear eye on this.

I will say I am leaning more towards the Euro currently as it has been far more consistent run to run compared to the GFS. The GFS can't even seem to decide if it wants to make a winter storm or not.

Agreed and the Canadian wants complete Snowmaggedon!!

[Goomba]

I hope it's not ice. Besides the problems associated with it, I see ice every day. It's in my freezer. We all deserve snow.

[redneckweather]

Freezing rain and sleet, who in their right mind would want that crap!? Get it over with already and bring on Spring.

[Stratton20]

Na spring can stay where its belongs, in florida lol

[tireman4]

Model Comparisons

[sambucol]

sambucol definitely to early to know, but it favors more dumps of arctic air into the western and central us into february, more se ridging showing up, that could also lead to a winter weather battle zone, pattern could continue to favor cold snaps through a good chunk of february before we start to warm up for good

Good to know the possibilities. Thank you

[DoctorMu]

We may be looking at the first statewide winterstorm since Feb 2021.*That does not mean it will get as cold as 2021 though. And temps are TBD*.Recent statewide winterstorms that I can remember include the February 2011 multi day storm, when even Corpus and the Valley received an ice storm. Another statewide winterstorm i remember was the January 2007 multi day ice storm that effected most of the state with ice.

It won't be as cold. But that may mean more snow/wintry mix.

[snowman65]

Remember back in Nov and Dec when everyone was complaining about how warm it was and asking where all the cold weather was? Well, we're about to find it..

[DoctorMu]

With an increasing confidence ( I am still not completely sold, but again, I am that Debbie Downer student Met), it is looking like we may have frozen P-Type in the CWA. I would side with the folks at the HGX NWS on this event. I think areas north of I10 ( me) will see more in the snow/sleet mixture. I have a strange feeling it might be an all day event on Wednesday. Now, one way or another, make sure to have plans to winterize your homes. The steps you took during the February 2021 event will work. I had my pipes on a very slow run all day and night. I am going to use hand warmers for my outside spigots. I also have expandable pipes, so that helped in 2021.

When you say expandable pipes i assume you are referring to pex which i had my entire home repiped with and i had no issues with pipe damage in 2021.

I have pex in the attic. With a space heater directed toward the attic and dripping faucets, they did just fine in 2021.

[jasons2k]

It’s really not a “guessing game.” Look at the pattern evolution to figure out what the models will do with this. I laid it out yesterday and we’re gonna see that warm nose stick around for awhile before we change to all snow.

Not a forecast because it’s a week away, but at my location I’m preparing as if I’m gonna have about 1/2” of ice topped with 1-3” of sleet and snow.

Edit: and yes those are conservative compared to what the potential is here.

[tireman4]

It’s really not a “guessing game.” Look at the pattern evolution to figure out what the models will do with this. I laid it out yesterday and we’re gonna see that warm nose stick around for awhile before we change to all snow.

Not a forecast because it’s a week away, but at my location I’m preparing as if I’m gonna have about 1/2” of ice topped with 1-3” of sleet and snow.

Edit: and yes those are conservative compared to what the potential is here.

What I meant was the evolution of the "mixed bag" and yes, I agree with you.

[Cromagnum]

More and more model runs are showing im somehow too north to get anything. Wild.

[Stormlover2020]

Models looking good for se Texas

[Goomba]

More and more model runs are showing im somehow too north to get anything. Wild.

Where are you? It's not in your profile.