February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:52 pm

It's like waiting for Santa Claus. You know (or think) it's coming and you just can't wait. Your neighbors on your street either didn't watch the news or just don't want to cover their plants. Maybe they are the same people who ignore hurricane evacuations. I have no doubt it's coming. If the three major news stations are mentioning SNOW for our area, then people need to take it to heart. However, m mom is still shady on the idea.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:53 pm

biggerbyte wrote:Folks, I would be very careful about bashing Heller until we see this event actually unfold. Secondly, if you look at some of the graphs on this page and the previous one, they are not all snow happy, except for folks generally north of I10. To place a dividing line splitting Harris County in half, one side snow, one side mix, questions forecasted temps. We simply do not know yet where the snow/snow mix/rain line will be. Those graphs might be right or wrong, but they paint a picture of either utter disappointment, or uncertainty.

Remember, the higher you climb/cocky, the farther you have to fall.
We need to hope for the best, and wait for the big snow event to get nearer. Heller is bound to have good reason for being cautious. If he saw snow coming, he would have no trouble telling us so.

But you and I are north of I10 so we'll keep our fingers and toes crossed

Mon Jan 31, 2011 7:58 pm

The 00Z's have started. No problems so far with data...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Tue Feb 1 01:31:37 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 010131
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0130Z TUE FEB 01 2011
THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.
OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...31
CANADIAN...68 CONUS...4 MEXICAN...AND 3 CARIBBEAN STATIONS.
00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
NKX/72293 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142.
MZT/76458 - CODE 10159.
GUM/91212 - NOT IN FOR NAM.
$$
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:01 pm

I must agree. Many years of being crushed by the models. Back in the mid-80s was the worst. Signifcant accumulations were forecast for the Houston metro with 100% chance.....it was a done deal in my book and would the most signifcant snow in modern time. Guess what.....never materialized. The 2004 Christmas Eve coastal snow made up for that heartbreak. I hope Tireman is correct with 1-4" totals.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:25 pm

NAM suggests a mighty big storm. That model also suggests not a lot of rain as the front passes, but very blustery behind the front. 850mb winds very strong. Our late week system is diving S into the deep trough...have fun folks and stay safe... I suspect there will be a lot of activity in the days ahead...

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:26 pm

Hopefully the 0Z will have a suprise for southeast texas by hour 84!

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:32 pm

I am going to say this no matter what this storm brings us here in SE texas (and yes I am wishcasting for snow) - its been a rush just watching the models from last week to today develop/lose and then find this artic blast and maybe just maybe snow for us here in SE Texas.

The rides no over - we got 4 more days this week to see what mother nature has in store for us!!!!

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:36 pm

cisa wrote:
biggerbyte wrote:Folks, I would be very careful about bashing Heller until we see this event actually unfold. Secondly, if you look at some of the graphs on this page and the previous one, they are not all snow happy, except for folks generally north of I10. To place a dividing line splitting Harris County in half, one side snow, one side mix, questions forecasted temps. We simply do not know yet where the snow/snow mix/rain line will be. Those graphs might be right or wrong, but they paint a picture of either utter disappointment, or uncertainty.

Remember, the higher you climb/cocky, the farther you have to fall.
We need to hope for the best, and wait for the big snow event to get nearer. Heller is bound to have good reason for being cautious. If he saw snow coming, he would have no trouble telling us so.
But you and I are north of I10 so we'll keep our fingers and toes crossed

Muhahaha!!

Yes, we can be stingy, can't we????

I'm trying not to get my hopes up. Somehow I know that in the end, if this does not happen for all of us, I, for one, will be horribly crushed. I suppose it might help to stay on the defensive/cautious side. Lol

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:42 pm

biggerbyte, I know you are playing a game of 'reverse physcology'. I'm doing the same thing trying not to get my hopes up but in reality, If I don't see a snowflake I'll be pissed.

Interesting times ahead.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:47 pm

biggerbyte wrote:Folks, I would be very careful about bashing Heller until we see this event actually unfold. Secondly, if you look at some of the graphs on this page and the previous one, they are not all snow happy, except for folks generally north of I10. To place a dividing line splitting Harris County in half, one side snow, one side mix, questions forecasted temps. We simply do not know yet where the snow/snow mix/rain line will be. Those graphs might be right or wrong, but they paint a picture of either utter disappointment, or uncertainty.

Remember, the higher you climb/cocky, the farther you have to fall.
We need to hope for the best, and wait for the big snow event to get nearer. Heller is bound to have good reason for being cautious. If he saw snow coming, he would have no trouble telling us so.

Again, I was not bashing Heller. Read what I stated. I stated he was nonchalant about his forecast. I stated that he probably was waiting to be convinced.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:48 pm

It's too far out to do the happy dance yet, but it is fun to dream. I didn't get much in the Christmas Eve event, so I know what it's like to have everyone excited and feel a little like Charlie Brown. I hope we all get snow. It would be lots of fun for the kid in all of us!

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:50 pm

NAM is still not cold enough.

NAM 54F Stephenville, front is through there now 46F.
NAM 40F Wichita Falls, 35F right now.
NAM 46F ABI, 39F right now.
NAM 34F OKC, 28F right now.

From Txagwxman on Storm 2k...

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:50 pm

im surprised there isn't more activity on here right now!! This is impressive there are over 120 pages on this february topic and it still isnt even february....

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:52 pm

And so it begins...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...WRN OK PANHANDLE...NWRN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 010155Z - 010700Z

HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NERN NM MAY
SEE BRIEF PERIODS NEAR 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES.

CURRENT MESOANALYSIS INDICATED VERY STRONG 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND
FROM NM ACROSS CNTRL TX...CURVING INTO CNTRL OK. A SFC BOUNDARY/COLD
FRONT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND STRETCHES EWD INTO
CNTRL TX. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE WRN OK AND TX PANHANDLES. IN
ADDITION TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE
FURTHER SUPPORTED THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL TROF /CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST E OF THE NM/AZ STATE LINE/ CONTINUES TO TRACK EWD AND
VORT MAX LIFTS NEWD ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE SRN PLAINS THEREFORE
MAINTAINING SNOWFALL FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY THROUGH DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WITH
BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW LIKELY BEFORE HEAVIER SNOW ENDS AFTER 06Z.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/01/2011

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:56 pm

this is part of the fun though, leading up and watching religiously, even if we don't get what we wanted how many times can we say this was in our forecast? Recently once every year but before this trend started we rarely got chances to watch an event like this, although I'm saying this now when our chances are looking great, I'm not sure I would feel the same way if our chances were diminishing

Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:58 pm

The 0Z Nam definitely seems to be trending in the right direction for those of us wanting snow here in S.E Texas!!

Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:02 pm

La La Land NAM...

Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:02 pm

Okay, the party is seeming to get wound up tighter than a gnats *** here! I for one am prepping up for an event which, if it does materalize, should be quite interesting, to say the least.

Now, for a reality check; If we do get the frozen fun, which I know many want, I just want one thing. And that is when this is all over, I hope and pray everyone will be here on the board talk about it. What I am saying is I want everyone to remember safety, safety, and yes, safety! Back when we had the last freeze, so many folks went out to check it out. Unfortunately, some were driving around in their cars and trucks. Have you ever driven on ice? Have you? Well, if you have, and you believe you can handle it, keep in mind that the other guy out there probably hasn't, and guess what!!!

I'm not trying to pee on this parade in any way. I want to see the white stuff all over, so I can watch my kids run and play (Okay, me too!!) I have been watching models and reading all the great posts here, and may I say, this forum is by far the best there is! I have been a member here for several years now. Yeah yeah, I know...it says I just joined. But. I could not log in under my old name for some reason (KD5YLO).

Once again, we all need to keep our hopes up, and if it doesn't pan out, then we have hurricane season to look forward to!! Not that I wish bad things on anyone, but it is fun as Hell watching the posts fly on here!

Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:07 pm

According to the 0Z NAM many of us here in Southeast Texas would be looking at accumulating snowfall Friday.

Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:09 pm

Now, for a reality check; If we do get the frozen fun, which I know many want, I just want one thing. And that is when this is all over, I hope and pray everyone will be here on the board talk about it. What I am saying is I want everyone to remember safety, safety, and yes, safety! Back when we had the last freeze, so many folks went out to check it out. Unfortunately, some were driving around in their cars and trucks. Have you ever driven on ice? Have you? Well, if you have, and you believe you can handle it, keep in mind that the other guy out there probably hasn't, and guess what!!!

Yes. Yes. Yes. 11 years North Carolina. Yes.

1. Warm up the car and defrost it for 20 minutes minimum
2. Leave 1 hour before your normal departing time
3. Top speed, 45 mph and stay in the tracks. There will be tracks left in the snow on the highway. I learned the hard way when North Carolina DOT would not plow the roads until AFTER the snow stopped.
4. Drive in the direction of the skid. ( if you skid). If you have a pull up emergency brake, that will so help you in a skid. Light pullups usually stop anything.
5. Keep at least 10 car lengths in front of you
6. When you get to a stop sign or traffic ight, start stopping way way before you normally do.

February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

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