August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[weatherguy425]

GEFS with a pretty big shift east too.

A continued complicated setup with a “more than we’d like to see” spread, including the potential for a stall as troughing leaves and high pressure attempts to build in from the northwest.

18Z GEFS attached.

[Andrew]

GEFS with a pretty big shift east too.

A continued complicated setup with a “more than we’d like to see” spread, including the potential for a stall as troughing leaves and high pressure attempts to build in from the northwest.

18Z GEFS attached.

The stalling on some of the southern solutions does raise an eyebrow. I remain skeptical on the quick north jump by the GFS across Cuba into the Central/Eastern Gulf but the eastern trend is good news for SE Texas. Still, models continue to struggle with the overall synoptic evolution for the next 5-7 days.

[Scott747]

The 18z HWRF so far is the complete opposite of the GFS...

And they are on the same team!

May have spoke too soon. Ha.

[Waded]

Every year, multiple times a year, SETX gets put under the gun for a little while by the models/and or forecasts regarding a storm, people get all worked up and, and then the storm ends up going somewhere else.

Yawn.

I'm not going to sweat it until SETX is in the NHC cone two or three days outs. Odds are low that any particular city will see a storm in a given year. If I had to bet, it will be LA or east storm.

[Stratton20]

Some members show the potential for a stall? im getting my supplies ready here In SE Texas just in case their is a big shift in the 00z models tonight

[Kingwood36]

I see no reason to be getting worked up and when don't even have a storm out there yet...

[weatherguy425]

Some members show the potential for a stall? im getting my supplies ready here In SE Texas just in case their is a big shift in the 00z models tonight

Some ensemble members have shown this for the past few days; a stall or slowing offshore then a tug northwest onto the upper Texas coast. The majority of members do NOT show this though. Unlikely, but not impossible.

[Cpv17]

Every year, multiple times a year, SETX gets put under the gun for a little while by the models/and or forecasts regarding a storm, people get all worked up and, and then the storm ends up going somewhere else.

Yawn.

I'm not going to sweat it until SETX is in the NHC cone two or three days outs. Odds are low that we will see a storm. If I had to bet, it will be LA or east storm.

This is pretty much how I feel too.

[captainbarbossa19]

Wxman57 sounds like he leaning strongly towards sounding the all clear for Houston. I hope he's right about no impacts, but it sure will be hot if it goes east of us.

[Goomba]

wxman57 posted this on s2k a few minutes ago...

"Good news for Houston, I think this is going to develop farther north and east. Bad news for SE Louisiana. We may need to shift our track east of Vermilion Bay tonight. Once models initialize on the right location, they'll be in better agreement. I just don't see much of a ridge to keep it from going straight north into the central Gulf. 18Z GFS may be on to something. Oh, and I've seen hurricanes reach Cat 5 moving at 25 kts. Speed is not a factor if the relative shear is low. Called my sister in Baton Rouge (Prairieville) telling her to get ready."

[Kingwood36]

Wxman57 sounds like he leaning strongly towards sounding the all clear for Houston. I hope he's right about no impacts, but it sure will be hot if it goes east of us.

The messiah has spoken

[captainbarbossa19]

Wxman57 sounds like he leaning strongly towards sounding the all clear for Houston. I hope he's right about no impacts, but it sure will be hot if it goes east of us.

The messiah has spoken

A lot can still change between now and Tuesday though. Just me personally, I think we still need a center to know for sure.

[davidiowx]

Yea sounds like the heat miser thinks the ridge will not be strong enough and it will allow this one to head north into LA

[Stratton20]

Their is no all clear no matter who says what lol, it will only be all clear until we see where the center forms and tracks, if anything saying all clear is a bad thing, id be prepared just in case

[Scott747]

NHC doesn't bite on the latest TWO.

They did expand the area to the NE which as of now does lie within the range....

[captainbarbossa19]

The NHC also mentions that Texas and Louisiana could have impacts from the system such as rain, wind, and storm surge. I think they are not buying the east shifts yet.

[weatherguy425]

NHC doesn't bite on the latest TWO.

They did expand the area to the NE which as of now does lie within the range....

Though, any change with NHC outlooks, forecasts are always going to be gradual in any situation.

[weatherguy425]

The 18z HWRF so far is the complete opposite of the GFS...

And they are on the same team!

May have spoke too soon. Ha.

HWRF shifts to a landfall in southeast Louisiana.

[Scott747]

One thing the NHC is generally known for is a level of continuity unless there is a definitive and drastic change. Sure they are waiting for another cycle before making a sizable shift. It's just that time is working against them if the speed of the 18z GFS is potentially legitimate.

[Andrew]

The 18z HWRF so far is the complete opposite of the GFS...

And they are on the same team!

May have spoke too soon. Ha.

HWRF shifts to a landfall in southeast Louisiana.

Yea, takes a route very similar to the GFS. It will be interesting to see if additional models continue this trend on the 00z suite.