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I'm going to average the ensembles and models and go for a 14° low in CLL. That Siberian air is really dry so the vortices moving across the area on Christmas will bring verga for now. Things could always change in a few days.

We had a low of 5°F with the Feb. 2021 winter storm. Albedo FTW.

Gonna be too cold and too dry to do anything but cause plumbing bills $$$.

Place is dead but that's to be expected since the precip is dwindling and we're still a cpl days away

The precipitation was never a good chance anyways, that one GFS run was just a false alarm, typical of the GFS haha, it does stink that Siberian air has to be so dry, but at least we will have a cold christmas this year!

When it comes to these types of fronts there’s always a better chance 2-4 days after the front passes cuz suppression lets up by then.

I think the mesocale models are going to do a better job of sniffing out a disturbance( particularly because this is not a large scale feature and the global models often dont do a good job with handling these smaller pieces of energy and coming in colder as well, the models have the weak disturbance swinging through next sunday, so things can still change as its still 5-7 days out, we will know more once the mesocale models come into range probably in about 3-4 days

Im already anticipating the mesoscale models to come in colder as well

I fully agree with Don and Blake that odds of a white christmas are definitely on the low side, but not zero just yet

Everyone keeps saying Friday is the coldest. So what are we expecting for highs on Xmas eve and Xmas day?

30s

On christmas eve probably highs in the 20’s, Herzog said we might not get above freezing until saturday, which sounds pretty realistic to me give. this bitter cold airmass

I've seen highs on Saturday of 40?!?!

That’s definitely too warm

I'm a little disappointed that we are probably not gonna see any wintry weather next week,but i'm gonna get the cold and that is a good thing plus we have plenty more winter to get that snow.

cperk wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:02 pm I'm a little disappointed that we are probably not gonna see any wintry weather next week,but i'm gonna get the cold and that is a good thing plus we have plenty more winter to get that snow.

I feel the same way. I’m hearing Jan 20th to Feb 20th will be our best chance.

I'm just glad the killer mosquitoes are gone

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:20 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:02 pm I'm a little disappointed that we are probably not gonna see any wintry weather next week,but i'm gonna get the cold and that is a good thing plus we have plenty more winter to get that snow.

I feel the same way. I’m hearing Jan 20th to Feb 20th will be our best chance.

Wintry precipitation is more likely in January to February.

NWS has lowered the expected low at IAH to 15°F on Thursday night and 19°F on Friday night. Still might not be low enough. Yikes.

TexasMetBlake wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:34 pm NWS has lowered the expected low at IAH to 15°F on Thursday night and 19°F on Friday night. Still might not be low enough. Yikes.

Often when the temperature does not go above freezing, it is cloudy. The forecast has it as clear.

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:29 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:20 pm

cperk wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:02 pm I'm a little disappointed that we are probably not gonna see any wintry weather next week,but i'm gonna get the cold and that is a good thing plus we have plenty more winter to get that snow.

I feel the same way. I’m hearing Jan 20th to Feb 20th will be our best chance.

Wintry precipitation is more likely in January to February.

I agree, it seems that we get in on ice and snow in January and Early February

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:23 pm When it comes to these types of fronts there’s always a better chance 2-4 days after the front passes cuz suppression lets up by then.

That's why I haven't given up on the 24/25th where a vortices will move across the region with the cold already in place.

TexasMetBlake wrote: ↑Sun Dec 18, 2022 3:34 pm NWS has lowered the expected low at IAH to 15°F on Thursday night and 19°F on Friday night. Still might not be low enough. Yikes.

Yep : 14°F (my prediction) and 18°F are now the current NWS predictions for Thursday and Friday nights. This kind of cold always outperforms.

Friday's prog. high is only 27°F now.