I don't post a lot, but hello and welcome to the forum! I don't think that necessarily means things are trending more eastward, but Houston will likely still see a lot of rain.TheSavageDad wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 1:58 pm I’m new here.. so hi guys 15 mins ago noaa just put us under 3-4 flash flood threat.. things must still be trending more east ward ?
Hurricane Beryl
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 546
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
Icon Freeport
Just got the alert we are under a Tropical Storm warning.
-
brazoriatx
- Posts: 415
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
-
biggerbyte
- Posts: 1396
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Beryl is determined to survive. Landfall looks to be further up the coast than had earlier been suggested from this morning. That leaves more time to strengthen over excellent conditions.
Optimism had turned to pessimism as Beryl could literally climb to major cane status once again. I hope everyone is prepared for worst case scenario. Watch the turn more northerly until it exits out to the ENE later on, post landfall.
I
Optimism had turned to pessimism as Beryl could literally climb to major cane status once again. I hope everyone is prepared for worst case scenario. Watch the turn more northerly until it exits out to the ENE later on, post landfall.
I
-
AtascocitaWX
- Posts: 162
- Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:29 pm
- Location: Atascocita,Tx
- Contact:
I know Beryl is fighting some dry air, but she starting to look good on radar. Alot of F5 action in the next 24 hours
Today's turbo seabreeze is bulldozing the dry air out of the way and clearing a path for Beryl.
1.5 inches from this slop today. I'll take it. Let's call it good now. Beryl can miss us.
Not unexpected that the track was shifted slightly to the n. Now cuts right between Port Lavaca and Port O'Connor. Depending on what recon finds there may be further slight adjustments.
Only positive sign in the disco is that further shifts n may speed up the landfall time which could limit intensification. Otherwise the ingredients appear to be there for some rather sharp deepening the last 12-18 hrs before landfall.
Only positive sign in the disco is that further shifts n may speed up the landfall time which could limit intensification. Otherwise the ingredients appear to be there for some rather sharp deepening the last 12-18 hrs before landfall.
NAM, HRRR - Matagorda landfall. Potentially CAT3 (946 mb) for NAM at landfall. CAT 1/2 for HRRR
Looks like CLL will see a lot of right front quadrant inland. Spinups and flooding possible.
Looks like CLL will see a lot of right front quadrant inland. Spinups and flooding possible.
Are we still probably looking at Monday morning?
I would like to have all of my chemical transport guys off the road and keep them home. We can top off all of our customers on Sunday and just keep them home on Monday.
TIA
-
Stormlover2020
- Posts: 546
- Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:04 pm
- Contact:
Nam sucks lol worse than cmc
12Z EURO landfall around Palacios/Matagorda as a strong category 1.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Last edited by don on Sat Jul 06, 2024 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
18z GFS shifted n. Around Palacios/Port O'Connor. Monday morning.
18Z GFS Category 1 into Palacios
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Lindner latest.
Beryl (Sat PM)
Hurricane Warning is issued from Baffin Bay TX to Sargent TX
Tropical Storm Warning is issued from Sargent TX to High Island TX including Galveston Bay
Storm Surge Warning is issued from Padre Island to San Luis Pass
Flood Watch has been issued for SE TX generally along and west of I-45
Discussion:
Beryl has been bursting deep convection to the northwest of the low level center today with at times this center becoming embedded within this thunderstorm activity IR Satellite Loop for Tropical Storm BERYL | Tropical Tidbits . However dry air and continued 15 kts of southerly shear have kept the thunderstorms from successfully wrapping around the center and based on the recent aircraft data the pressure which had fallen this morning has rebounded this afternoon indicating Beryl has not intensified today. The tropical storm is moving toward the WNW at 13mph with sustained winds of 60mph and a central pressure of 997mb.
Track:
There has been little to no change in the track reasoning today with Beryl moving toward the western edge of high pressure over the SE US and will begin to turn toward the NW and NNW on Sunday toward a trough over the central plains. On this tack Beryl will approach and eventually make landfall along the mid TX coast between Rockport and Palacios on Monday while turning northward and moving inland into Monday afternoon. NHC is near or just left of the center of the major model guidance consensus and confidence is growing that Beryl will make landfall around Matagorda Bay on Monday. One item to monitor on Sunday and Sunday night will be as Beryl enters into a more favorable environment for intensification does a deepening Beryl turn a but more toward the right near the coast. A potentially stronger Beryl will feel more influence from the pull of the trough over the central US and how fast Beryl turns to the northeast is still somewhat uncertain.
Beryl is not expected to slow much and will not stall or loop over the area and will continue to lift off to the northeast once captured by the trough and is forecasted to be center near western TN by Thursday.
Intensity:
While Beryl is certainly trying to close off deep thunderstorms near the center, conditions remain a bit too hostile for intensification currently. As Beryl turns toward the NW and approaches the TX coast on Sunday wind shear will weaken and the general trend is for steady intensification followed by a slightly fast rate of intensification as Beryl nears the coast late Sunday into early Monday.
Tropical systems approaching the Texas coast are notorious for quick development over warm water temperatures and with good upper level conditions which Beryl will have in place, and the last 12-18 hours prior to landfall Beryl will need to be watch closely on development trends as it is possible Beryl will deepen more than currently forecasted.
Impacts:
1. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will spread northward toward the middle TX coast late Sunday into Monday with hurricane conditions over the Matagorda Bay area on Monday (Calhoun, Jackson, and Matagorda Counties…could see hurricane force wind gusts into southern Wharton County). Tropical storm force winds of 40mph will spread across Brazoria County and then inland of the hurricane conditions across Colorado, Wharton, and Austin Counties. Only a slight expansion of the wind field, greater intensification, or slight right track adjustment would bring sustained tropical storm conditions into Fort Bend, Galveston and Harris Counties.
Sustained tropical storm force winds will begin to arrive along the middle TX coast by Sunday evening spreading into portions of the upper Texas coast generally west of High Island Monday morning.
Widespread power outages will be likely over the Matagorda Bay area with isolated to scattered power outages over Brazoria, Galveston, Fort Bend, Harris, and Waller Counties.
1. Large swells and increasing tides will begin to arrive along the Texas coast late Sunday and build into Monday. Seas build to 15-25 ft offshore of Matagorda Bay Sunday night into Monday and 10-15 ft off the rest of the upper Texas coast. With much of the upper TX coast being on the right (onshore wind) side of Beryl storm surge flooding of 4-6 ft above normally dry ground near the coast will be likely from Matagorda Bay to Sargent and 3-5 feet above normally dry ground near the coast from Sargent to San Luis Pass. Storm surge values of 2-4 ft above normally dry ground is expected from San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay. These values are similar to TS Alberto from San Luis Pass to High Island and 2-3 ft higher than Alberto west of San Luis Pass down to Matagorda Bay.
1. Voluntary evacuations have been recommended for low lying coastal areas of Calhoun and Jackson Counties and for the Matagorda, Sargent, and waterfront of the City of Palacios in Matagorda County.
2. Heavy to excessive rainfall will move inland along and to the right of the track of Beryl. Widespread rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches will be likely along the track of Beryl with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible….these totals are likely a bit high…but when dealing with landfalling tropical systems rains can add up quickly. Significant rainfall will spread inland along the track of Beryl generating widespread run-off into area rivers…especially the Brazos, San Jacinto, San Bernard, and Trinity basins. Given the tropical nature of the air mass high rainfall rates will be possible leading to urban flash flooding in any sustained banding on the eastern flank of the circulation. Several models show the formation of a fairly intense feeder band late Monday over the area that moves west to east on the southern side of the weakening circulation which by that time will be located around the College Station area. This will need to be monitored for any sustained flash flood risk. WPC has portions of the area in a moderate risk for flash flooding for Monday mainly along and west of I-45.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Beryl (Sat PM)
Hurricane Warning is issued from Baffin Bay TX to Sargent TX
Tropical Storm Warning is issued from Sargent TX to High Island TX including Galveston Bay
Storm Surge Warning is issued from Padre Island to San Luis Pass
Flood Watch has been issued for SE TX generally along and west of I-45
Discussion:
Beryl has been bursting deep convection to the northwest of the low level center today with at times this center becoming embedded within this thunderstorm activity IR Satellite Loop for Tropical Storm BERYL | Tropical Tidbits . However dry air and continued 15 kts of southerly shear have kept the thunderstorms from successfully wrapping around the center and based on the recent aircraft data the pressure which had fallen this morning has rebounded this afternoon indicating Beryl has not intensified today. The tropical storm is moving toward the WNW at 13mph with sustained winds of 60mph and a central pressure of 997mb.
Track:
There has been little to no change in the track reasoning today with Beryl moving toward the western edge of high pressure over the SE US and will begin to turn toward the NW and NNW on Sunday toward a trough over the central plains. On this tack Beryl will approach and eventually make landfall along the mid TX coast between Rockport and Palacios on Monday while turning northward and moving inland into Monday afternoon. NHC is near or just left of the center of the major model guidance consensus and confidence is growing that Beryl will make landfall around Matagorda Bay on Monday. One item to monitor on Sunday and Sunday night will be as Beryl enters into a more favorable environment for intensification does a deepening Beryl turn a but more toward the right near the coast. A potentially stronger Beryl will feel more influence from the pull of the trough over the central US and how fast Beryl turns to the northeast is still somewhat uncertain.
Beryl is not expected to slow much and will not stall or loop over the area and will continue to lift off to the northeast once captured by the trough and is forecasted to be center near western TN by Thursday.
Intensity:
While Beryl is certainly trying to close off deep thunderstorms near the center, conditions remain a bit too hostile for intensification currently. As Beryl turns toward the NW and approaches the TX coast on Sunday wind shear will weaken and the general trend is for steady intensification followed by a slightly fast rate of intensification as Beryl nears the coast late Sunday into early Monday.
Tropical systems approaching the Texas coast are notorious for quick development over warm water temperatures and with good upper level conditions which Beryl will have in place, and the last 12-18 hours prior to landfall Beryl will need to be watch closely on development trends as it is possible Beryl will deepen more than currently forecasted.
Impacts:
1. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will spread northward toward the middle TX coast late Sunday into Monday with hurricane conditions over the Matagorda Bay area on Monday (Calhoun, Jackson, and Matagorda Counties…could see hurricane force wind gusts into southern Wharton County). Tropical storm force winds of 40mph will spread across Brazoria County and then inland of the hurricane conditions across Colorado, Wharton, and Austin Counties. Only a slight expansion of the wind field, greater intensification, or slight right track adjustment would bring sustained tropical storm conditions into Fort Bend, Galveston and Harris Counties.
Sustained tropical storm force winds will begin to arrive along the middle TX coast by Sunday evening spreading into portions of the upper Texas coast generally west of High Island Monday morning.
Widespread power outages will be likely over the Matagorda Bay area with isolated to scattered power outages over Brazoria, Galveston, Fort Bend, Harris, and Waller Counties.
1. Large swells and increasing tides will begin to arrive along the Texas coast late Sunday and build into Monday. Seas build to 15-25 ft offshore of Matagorda Bay Sunday night into Monday and 10-15 ft off the rest of the upper Texas coast. With much of the upper TX coast being on the right (onshore wind) side of Beryl storm surge flooding of 4-6 ft above normally dry ground near the coast will be likely from Matagorda Bay to Sargent and 3-5 feet above normally dry ground near the coast from Sargent to San Luis Pass. Storm surge values of 2-4 ft above normally dry ground is expected from San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay. These values are similar to TS Alberto from San Luis Pass to High Island and 2-3 ft higher than Alberto west of San Luis Pass down to Matagorda Bay.
1. Voluntary evacuations have been recommended for low lying coastal areas of Calhoun and Jackson Counties and for the Matagorda, Sargent, and waterfront of the City of Palacios in Matagorda County.
2. Heavy to excessive rainfall will move inland along and to the right of the track of Beryl. Widespread rainfall amounts of 5-10 inches will be likely along the track of Beryl with isolated amounts up to 15 inches possible….these totals are likely a bit high…but when dealing with landfalling tropical systems rains can add up quickly. Significant rainfall will spread inland along the track of Beryl generating widespread run-off into area rivers…especially the Brazos, San Jacinto, San Bernard, and Trinity basins. Given the tropical nature of the air mass high rainfall rates will be possible leading to urban flash flooding in any sustained banding on the eastern flank of the circulation. Several models show the formation of a fairly intense feeder band late Monday over the area that moves west to east on the southern side of the weakening circulation which by that time will be located around the College Station area. This will need to be monitored for any sustained flash flood risk. WPC has portions of the area in a moderate risk for flash flooding for Monday mainly along and west of I-45.
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1
