January 2025

[jasons2k]

Kansas City?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jOSULtIyKKc

[biggerbyte]

We flip, then we flop. LOL

So after all of the excitement this morning the models are a little less bold. Also, the mention of snow has been ripped FROM NOAH/NWS.

[tireman4]

HGX has taken snow out of the forecast for Humble, as well they should. It is still way too early for forecasting frozen P-Type. This is just my " being only a student" opinion.

[Brazoriatx979]

We flip, then we flop. LOL

So after all of the excitement this morning the models are a little less bold. Also, the mention of snow has been ripped FROM NOAH/NWS.

Its Tuesday man..lol our system won't even be on land till sometime Thursday

[walsean1]

This was POW Ponders update from this morning.

https://youtu.be/WVlANJzNjjo?si=2ELdrnrCYmij95-r

[TexasBreeze]

From what i have seen i wouldn't say chances have dropped.

[tireman4]

We flip, then we flop. LOL

So after all of the excitement this morning the models are a little less bold. Also, the mention of snow has been ripped FROM NOAH/NWS.

First, the trend is your friend. Also, there are two shifts ( maybe three) shifts at the HGX NWS ( as there are at the news station). They have their own autonomy when forecasting. The morning shift might have thought more of a frozen P-Type event than the evening shift. For HGX to even mention it, this early in the game, tells you that they are thinking about it. Read the last part of this afternoon's AFD...

This is when the forecast gets quite tricky trying to
pin down the magnitude of this cold air, as well as the chances of
seeing snow or sleet/freezing rain behind this reinforcing front.
I would not advice zeroing in on a single forecast model, or
model run, but to think in terms of uncertainty. This far out we
will keep close to the mean NBM values for now. However the temps
could very well keep trending colder as the NBM members begin to
coalesce over the coming days. Currently, more certain of a hard
freeze north of i10, although the 25th percentile min temps from
the nbm bring a hard freeze down to the coast Tuesday morning.

There remains quite a a bit of uncertainty regarding wintery
precipitation late Monday and Tuesday as a fast moving system
overspreads the western Gulf of Mexico. This could bring
sufficient ascent and moisture over southeast TX for some
snow/light icing. This energy and associated surface low could
also stay well into the Gulf of Mexico with mostly dry and cold
conditions across our area. The NBM deterministic guidance does
have some mention in the forecast, so will opt to leave those in
play for now. However, this can all change- and probably will!


I was shocked when the morning shift pulled the trigger on it. I think you will see it come back as the week wears on. Stay tuned.

[TexasBreeze]

My HGX point and click for Spring hasn't removed it. It is Monday night and Tuesday

[don]

prateptype_cat-imp.us_sc (31).png

[TexasBreeze]

That low is much more out into the Gulf this run.
Hope the cold air isnt too strong that it supresses everything
too far south. Might be a future trend to watch out for.

[mcheer23]

HGX

Monday Night
A slight chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday
A slight chance of rain, snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

[Cpv17]

That low is much more out into the Gulf this run.
Hope the cold air isnt too strong that it supresses everything
too far south. Might be a future trend to watch out for.

I still say just follow the ensembles at this range.

[Stratton20]

Actually that low is in the perfect spot to give se texas heavy snow, GFS gives 8-10 inches of snow across all of se texas

[Stratton20]

18z GEFS with a mean of 1-2 inches of snow in se texas, that as a mean average for se texas is very significant!

[TexasBreeze]

Yup it is all looking good to me currently!

[biggerbyte]

Take everything I said earlier and reverse it. It's back on the table again. LOL

GFS..

[Brazoriatx979]

Take everything I said earlier and reverse it. It's back on the table again. LOL

GFS..

It's ok..we don't listen to ya anyway lol jk








Maybe...lol

[Cpv17]

Big EPO block showing up on the longer range ensembles. Pattern may reload for another big cold shot late month.

[Brazoriatx979]

Hou/galv nws put sleet and snow back in the forecast for Monday night (20%) and Tuesday(30%) after it was pulled earlier..just a fyi

[DoctorMu]

CPC has all of se texas in a high risk of hazardous cold temperatures, havent seen that in several years, the siberian express is coming full time

Yep...

Siberian Express even makes the GOM shiver.