August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Kingwood36]

Big shift west with the 12Z HWRF fwiw.

Gross.. can we have a Winter storm instead?

[tireman4]

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before

Hurricane Ike models just about 48 hours prior to landfall suggested a Corpus Christi/N Parde Island landfall and evacuations started down there to only have those models shift to Galveston forcing all the State and Federal assets to quickly relocate to Galveston/Bolivar Peninsula. I believe that there was crow eating by some Pro Mets and government officials...

I remember that moment like yesterday.

Yeah. We had a guess picking contest. Ticka ( remember her...I miss her..she was married to my cousin's husband's brother), picked right over my house. Well, lo and behold, Ike goes right over my house in Humble. I never let her forget that. Yes, it was wild. Soupbone has an avatar on S2K with a guy in a bear suit. The guy was dancing along the shore while Ike was churning up the Gulf. Yeah, wild times.

[don]

12Z Euro moved slightly east around Lake Charles.

[Stratton20]

Eyro is a little east, not really buying the operational runs, I think they. are too far east, hurricane model’s are farther west as are most the ensembles ,

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the Euro is suggesting a strengthening storm right into landfall along the SW Louisiana Coast. It is certainly suggesting a much stronger storm with the 12Z cycle.

[djmike]

Euro seems to be eastern biased again this year. I lost a lot of pride in the euro from last year. Use to be “The one” and “The best of the best”.

[Stormlover2020]

Man that’s a big wind field

[weatherguy425]

Euro seems to be eastern biased again this year. I lost a lot of pride in the euro from last year. Use to be “The one” and “The best of the best”.

Let’s not forget, though, that the operational ECMWF remained on the right side of its ensemble envelope with Laura, even to the criticism of others in real time. It ended up being correct.

Not that it means the same thing is happening this time. Just something to keep in mind.

[srainhoutx]

Strong wording coming from the NHC this afternoon. We usually see this sort of message when a storm has already formed.

[Kingwood36]

Euro seems to be eastern biased again this year. I lost a lot of pride in the euro from last year. Use to be “The one” and “The best of the best”.

I'll be happy if that eastern biases stays for this storm lol I don't want it

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, back at the Ranch...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 251759
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers and thunderstorms already beginning to develop along the
coast near GLS. Convection should hold off across the rest of the
area until around 20z with coverage being isolated to widely
scattered. Winds remain on the light side and out of the
southeast/east-southeast. Any convection that develops will
dissipate shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.
Winds become light and variable once again overnight as the
pressure gradient weakens. Easterly winds will kick back in on
Thursday morning. Shower/thunderstorm coverage expected to be more
widespread tomorrow with additional moisture in place. Overall,
VFR conditions will continue to prevail throughout the TAF period.

Batiste

[Stratton20]

Until this actually gets into the gulf with a developed center, take these model runs with a big grain of salt

[don]

12Z HMON looks very similar to the HWRF fwiw.

[tireman4]

Jeff is on Channel 2!! ( Jeff stops by every now and then)

[weatherguy425]

12Z HMON looks very similar to the HWRF fwiw.

Weird that HMON data seems to be having trouble getting onto public sites the past couple runs.

[jasons2k]

Don’t look at what Bastardi is saying

[ajurcat]

Don’t look at what Bastardi is saying

Would you like to give us a glimpse into what we shouldn't look at?

[Kingwood36]

Don’t look at what Bastardi is saying

More fear mongering? I see nothing on his Twitter expcet for the usual.."I've been out front" blah blah blah

[Stratton20]

Jasons2k whats he saying

[Texaspirate11]

Don’t look at what Bastardi is saying

I try never too lol