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quick question - you guys talk about "King Euro" - what are the letters for that one? (you know, the ones you see on the models)

ECMWF


http://www.ecmwf.int/

This is one pro met's list of his favorite models ( I am almost positive he posts here too..)

Txagwxman:

I think the reason why, is because so many people post models out there that shouldn't be even posted. Over the long haul my model choices are:

1) ECMWF
2) UKMET
3) GFS/GFDL
4) HWRF--but new version maybe a little better.
...GEM, NOGAPS

This may vary for each season...but I think the new upgrade on the ECMWF last spring is proving worthwhile. New GFS should be better when it comes out in July.

(Edit: I hope he does not mind me posting it here.)

Slowly organizing as convection start wrap around the W side...

This storm may set a record for lowest pressure for a tropical storm (prior to becoming a hurricane).

Anyone know that one?

Also, would not be shocked if 4pm update has winds up to 85mph.

tireman4 wrote:ECMWF


http://www.ecmwf.int/

awesome, thanks!!

If you want to know how much influence Alex will have on our weather; take a look at wundermaps radar of Texas. Every shower or storm is moving around Alex, even way out in West Texas.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

As I posted before, Alex is almost more a weather system, than a tropical storm. It's influence has stretched from the Pacific to the Florida. That's probably one of the reasons it took so long to organize and to strengthen.

Look at this sat loop and you'll see wind patterns from Florida to Honduras are under the influence of Alex.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

1st feeder bands moving through Round Rock and the I-35 corridor. Rain from Kennedy up to Waco. A little thunder, no wind, but a nice heavy tropical downpour. My grass is loving it!

Ed Mahmoud wrote:WC-130J is climbing to transit altitude back to Keesler. Best I can tell, not another center fix until 7 pm CDT.

When is the next Recon scheduled to leave?

Big feeder band on its way in to SE Texas. I think this is only a preview of whats to come.

Dont know if it is a wobble or not but it looks like it is starting to take a hard turn to the west.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

WRF is suggesting impressive rainfall totals. Folks that do get under a feeder band need to be mindful of flash flooding...

I do believe it'll hit to the left of the current track. Would not be surprised at all to see the track shifted south in the next advisory at 4. For us here in SE Texas rainfall is going to be a big issue due to the influence Alex has over a large area.

Bluefalcon wrote:1st feeder bands moving through Round Rock and the I-35 corridor. Rain from Kennedy up to Waco. A little thunder, no wind, but a nice heavy tropical downpour. My grass is loving it!

Not really 100% associated w/ Alex. There is a washed out front/weak boundary around the Austin area, giving enough lift with the moisture that is surging inland from alex to help create the showers/thunderstorms.

On a side note, I got close to 3" last night in 2 hours at my house in Leander.

Obviously rain is going to be an issue here. But I havnt heard a whole lot about where it is going to go after land fall. It looks like alot of models push it southwest, but some carry it north through central Texas. If it should move north after landfall I am wondering if we will be far enough to be spared a core rain event.

ThunderMan wrote:

Bluefalcon wrote:1st feeder bands moving through Round Rock and the I-35 corridor. Rain from Kennedy up to Waco. A little thunder, no wind, but a nice heavy tropical downpour. My grass is loving it!

Not really 100% associated w/ Alex. There is a washed out front/weak boundary around the Austin area, giving enough lift with the moisture that is surging inland from alex to help create the showers/thunderstorms.

On a side note, I got close to 3" last night in 2 hours at my house in Leander.

maybe not a true feeder ban, but check out the radar loops and you'll see the connection. rotating shower bands from NE to SW are swinging through south/central Texas now.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... 9&smooth=0

Someone please post the 4 PM advisory information in the NHC Outlook thread. Off to IAH to pickup arriving guests.

Still wondering if we'll get that much rain here.....

My yard is thirsty, thirsty