February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[Rich]

Thanks for posting that video update srain! Enjoyed getting his take on things ahead.

[redneckweather]

Yep, Montgomery County gets shafted again. This goes back to 2004 then to 2008 and again twice during 2009/2010. Unreal.

[tireman4]

Ya never know Mr Redneck. Hang in there......

[biggerbyte]

Hmmm! Impact seemed to be suggesting temps for most of the area no different than what we've already seen. Areas north and west, low to mid twenties, with areas east and south of there getting mid to upper twenties. We've been there, done that. I either have to be missing something in that video, or he is just giving the outlook as it stands today. Those temps could be what we end up with, but they are not agreeing with some of the talk going around. The biggest jolly with him was the talk of snow. I see he agreed with folks south getting most of the goodies.

[Snowman]

I agree redneckweather. i am in northwest harris county and everytime they forecast an inch of snow i barely get a dusting. This looks to be a snow event more for south of us AGAIN. I will believe an inch of snow on my lawn when i see it

[ticka1]

Where is the leading edge of cold air now - how far has the front progressed in the CONUS?

[ronyan]

Hmmm! Impact seemed to be suggesting temps for most of the area no different than what we've already seen. Areas north and west, low to mid twenties, with areas east and south of there getting mid to upper twenties. We've been there, done that. I either have to be missing something in that video, or he is just giving the outlook as it stands today. Those temps could be what we end up with, but they are not agreeing with some of the talk going around. The biggest jolly with him was the talk of snow. I see he agreed with folks south getting most of the goodies.

Every forecast that I can find shows colder than what was depicted in that graphic. The 30 degree line doesn't even reach us here, I don't think that's likely.

[harpman]

Ok, what's the word on the leading edge of the arctic boundary?

[cristina99]

You just never know. They can't tell just HOW cold it will get. Or who will or will not get snow. The low could go further inland and that would mean better chances. We can only speculate at the moment. What are you donig to get prepared?

[biggerbyte]

Well, all sort of news in that update. Goodness. We've said this could be an interesting pattern that could produce some surprises.
Thumbnail sketch for those that can not view the video. Cold
is coming and hard freeze all the way to Deep S TX. Crop issues there. Storm will be very windy. Lows in the teens and 20's across Houston. Storm approaches on Thursday as surface low develops in the Gulf, 2-4 inches of snow possible in S TX and an inch average across Houston. More cold air heading in next week with additional wintry weather chances in the Deep South.

Srain, where are you seeing teens in that video? His map shows 20 to 30 across the entire region. Where am I missing it?

[tireman4]

From Larry Cosgrove to me on Facebook: (he is not buying the measurable snow for Houston)


I doubt that Houston will get measurable snow; maybe some flurries, but not impressed by moisture pull from the Gulf ifn advance of the upper low

[Mr. T]

It's way too early to be talking about accumulations anywhere, IMO

Also, the moisture will be spreading pretty far to the north compared to the 2004 event. The upper level disturbance will be taking a more northerly track. Even Dallas has snow in the forecast. Not sure why everyone on here is suddenly spazzing out

[Mr. T]

Hard freeze watch issued:

... Hard freeze watch in effect from Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning...

The National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston has issued a
hard freeze watch... which is in effect from Tuesday evening
through Wednesday morning.

An Arctic front will push through the region on Tuesday with much
colder conditions expected in its wake. Readings will likely fall
below freezing before midnight. Temperatures will continue to fall
overnight with readings below 25 degrees likely across most inland
portions of southeast Texas. At the immediate beach... temperatures
will likely fall below freezing but should remain above 25
degrees.

In addition to the cold temperatures... blustery northerly winds
will send wind chill values into the single digits and teens.

Residents should begin their preparations for this very cold
weather as soon as they can. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front tomorrow. And if waiting until Tuesday
evening... you will be outside in the cold blustery conditions.

Readings might not make it out of the 30s on Wednesday followed by
another possible hard freeze Tuesday night.

Remember to take care of plants... pets... pipes... and people. Also
remember to winterize or drain your sprinkler systems as they will
be prone to the elements as well.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A hard freeze watch means temperatures below 25 degrees are
possible for 2 or more hours

[tireman4]

Well that is response to the statement I typed to him:

Houston may have chance for measurable snowfall on Friday, to which he made his remark. I am not saying yea or nea, for I am not qualified to make such a statement about accumulations or if we even get snow.

[srainhoutx]

The Canadian (GEM) is very wet and colder. Coastal low hugs the coastline dumping a lot of precip. We shall see.

[wxman57]

Note that there is a difference between a forecast (what's most likely) and a possibility (not likely, but possible) as far as low temps. The forecast is presently for mid 20s in our area. But the possibility is there for colder temps. One "issue" as far as low temps this week will be cloud cover. The clouds may help keep temps in coastal counties "warmer" and night, but allowing for only marginal temperature increases during the day Wed-Fri. Saturday could actually be the coldest morning if there's any snow around Friday.

Here's the latest 12Z GFS meteogram.

[tireman4]

The Canadian (GEM) is very wet and colder. Coastal low hugs the coastline dumping a lot of precip. We shall see.

I think, and I did not ask him, Larry Cosgrove is taking the conservative high road on this. I did not call him up on this, who knows.

[biggerbyte]

Wazup, T??

Just to answer your question. The track of the ULD is not certain yet, nor is the amount of available moisture. I guess everyone is "spazzing", because of how the outlook looks as of today, and what history's teacher has taught our area. The current forecast by everyone I have come in contact with today do suggest most of any snow that might fall over the southern half of Texas will be south of our area. Naturally, taking all of this in to account, folks are getting concerned.

[Mr. T]

Note that there is a difference between a forecast (what's most likely) and a possibility (not likely, but possible) as far as low temps. The forecast is presently for mid 20s in our area. But the possibility is there for colder temps. One "issue" as far as low temps this week will be cloud cover. The clouds may help keep temps in coastal counties "warmer" and night, but allowing for only marginal temperature increases during the day Wed-Fri. Saturday could actually be the coldest morning if there's any snow around Friday

GFS MOS and NAM 2m temps are a lot colder than this... The GFS 2m temp forecast is definitely a warm outlier right now.

The forecast from the NWS has us reaching the low 20s

[Mr. T]

Wazup, T??

Just to answer your question. The track of the ULD is not certain yet, nor is the amount of available moisture. I guess everyone is "spazzing", because of how the outlook looks as of today, and what history's teacher has taught our area. The current forecast by everyone I have come in contact with today do suggest most of any snow that might fall over the southern half of Texas will be south of our area. Naturally, taking all of this in to account, folks are getting concerned.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2004/us1225.php

The forecasted disturbance depicted on ALL global models does not travel anywhere near as far south as that Xmas 04 disturbance. Who's saying the snow will be south of here? I'd be more worried the snow will be north of here if the CMC is right...