August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[jasons2k]

One thing I find interesting is the initial coordinates for recon on flights 3 & 4.

Yep, these are some of the little clues us old timers look for

[Kingwood36]

So, basically the bottom line is when want the ridge to erode or be weaker so it goes to our neighbors in LA..if it's stronger it's coming home to texas..correct?

[Stormlover2020]

Cmc right on Tx/LA

[snowman65]

I tried this last ear but couldn't get any bites.....who wants to buy my house in Orange, Tx? Looking for a quick sale...we could close by the weekend....

[don]

12Z GFS ensembles,still not agreeing completely with the operational run. It will be interesting to see what the Euro shows.

[jasons2k]

Ukie = still coastal bend region

[Scott747]

12z HWRF is much further w early in the run compared to the 0z (discount the 6z run.)

[Andrew]

Ukie = still coastal bend region

[snowman65]

Ukie = still coastal bend region

I'll take that.....

[Stratton20]

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before

[weatherguy425]

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before

We don't even have a named system yet. Haha. This is fairly par for the course.

[DoctorPi]

Hey guys! I've lurked on this forum quite a bit, but now have arrived! This coming storm looks quite significant, and the model runs have certainly been nothing short of hectic.

I'm looking forward to the insights these coming days!

[TXWeatherMan]

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before

Then you must not have followed tropical systems very much. This is pretty common.

[TexasBreeze]

There really isn't too much disagreement actually with the 3 models showing the border give or take and just the UK showing mid Tx. Not bad till the 12 Euro comes out and throws up a different solution like yesterday!

[tireman4]

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before

We don't even have a named system yet. Haha. This is fairly par for the course.

Until we get a COC ( and even that might not synthesize the model consensus), this will be all over the place. Stay tuned.

[srainhoutx]

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before

Hurricane Ike models just about 48 hours prior to landfall suggested a Corpus Christi/N Parde Island landfall and evacuations started down there to only have those models shift to Galveston forcing all the State and Federal assets to quickly relocate to Galveston/Bolivar Peninsula. I believe that there was crow eating by some Pro Mets and government officials...

[Stratton20]

srainhoutx jeez thats awful, ofc I was just a kid at the time, but I remember waking up after IKE passed , finding a neighbors trampoline ib my backyard with the entire back fence fallen down

[captainbarbossa19]

If anything forms historically speaking, Galveston County has the highest odds of getting hit. They have the highest number of major hurricane direct hits in the state going back to 1900. However, one cannot solely rely upon historical impacts to determine where this system will end up.

Edit: actually, it is Brazoria County with the highest number, but Galveston County is #2.

[tireman4]

This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before

Hurricane Ike models just about 48 hours prior to landfall suggested a Corpus Christi/N Parde Island landfall and evacuations started down there to only have those models shift to Galveston forcing all the State and Federal assets to quickly relocate to Galveston/Bolivar Peninsula. I believe that there was crow eating by some Pro Mets and government officials...

Yes, I can second that emotion. It was wild on this forum about it. Crazy

[snowman65]

If anything forms historically speaking, Galveston County has the highest odds of getting hit. They have the highest number of major hurricane direct hits in the state going back to 1900. However, one cannot solely rely upon historical impacts to determine where this system will end up.

Edit: actually, it is Brazoria County with the highest number, but Galveston County is #2.

Just my 2 cents but I believe we live in a totally different world than what once was. You can throw out all the records, statistics, history.....it's a new ball game now...the "hot spots" have changed....