August 2020:
Much stronger this run as well.
18z GFS is deepening it on its approach. Yikes.
Will Texas get any watches for Marco since we will see whats left of him Tuesday?
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Looks like it’s headed towards the TX/LA border.
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Kingwood36
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Oof. That's one ugly run.
Looks like the 18z GFS has a landfall in Chambers County. High Island area.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Sun Aug 23, 2020 5:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
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Sunday afternoon briefing from Jeff for Laura:
Tropical storm heading for southern Cuba
Hurricane forecasted into the NW Gulf of Mexico mid to late week.
Discussion:
USAF mission is in progress and has found strong winds along the NE coast of Cuba which appears to be less associated with the actual circulation. The mission also found a continued low level circulation that is south of the SE Cuba coast with all the deep convection continuing to be displaced south of the actual center. This convective pattern continues to pull the center south of both the forecast track and likely now along and south of the Cuba coast.
Track:
Laura is being steered by a strong and mid upper level high pressure system over the SW Atlantic and this ridge of high pressure is forecast to build westward over the central Gulf coast. This will steer Laura generally toward the WNW and toward the western tip of Cuba and then into the central and NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Global forecast models continue to show a track in the general direction of Sabine Pass, with the exception of the ECMWF which has recently taken Laura toward SE LA, but this run of the ECWMF appears to have suffered from some errors at the start of the run. The hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) are stronger and toward the western side of the forecast envelope.
The official NHC forecast continues to bring Laura toward the Sabine Pass area as a strong category 2 hurricane late Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
There remains some uncertainty in the forecast track
Intensity:
Laura will likely not increase much in intensity over the next 24 -36 hours as the system interacts with the landmass of Cuba. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, conditions appear very favorable for intensification and Laura will likely become a hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico and then at least a category 2 hurricane over the NW Gulf on Wednesday. It is very possible that Laura will become a major hurricane over the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Laura has a large wind field and this wind field will help to induce an potentially large storm surge along the upper TX coast and SW LA coast later this week.
Actions:
Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the upper TX and SW LA coast should begin
Keep vehicle gas tanks full
Review evacuation plans in coastal areas and be prepared to enact those plans early this week
Follow all recommendations from local emergency or elected officials
Tropical storm heading for southern Cuba
Hurricane forecasted into the NW Gulf of Mexico mid to late week.
Discussion:
USAF mission is in progress and has found strong winds along the NE coast of Cuba which appears to be less associated with the actual circulation. The mission also found a continued low level circulation that is south of the SE Cuba coast with all the deep convection continuing to be displaced south of the actual center. This convective pattern continues to pull the center south of both the forecast track and likely now along and south of the Cuba coast.
Track:
Laura is being steered by a strong and mid upper level high pressure system over the SW Atlantic and this ridge of high pressure is forecast to build westward over the central Gulf coast. This will steer Laura generally toward the WNW and toward the western tip of Cuba and then into the central and NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Global forecast models continue to show a track in the general direction of Sabine Pass, with the exception of the ECMWF which has recently taken Laura toward SE LA, but this run of the ECWMF appears to have suffered from some errors at the start of the run. The hurricane models (HWRF and HMON) are stronger and toward the western side of the forecast envelope.
The official NHC forecast continues to bring Laura toward the Sabine Pass area as a strong category 2 hurricane late Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
There remains some uncertainty in the forecast track
Intensity:
Laura will likely not increase much in intensity over the next 24 -36 hours as the system interacts with the landmass of Cuba. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, conditions appear very favorable for intensification and Laura will likely become a hurricane over the central Gulf of Mexico and then at least a category 2 hurricane over the NW Gulf on Wednesday. It is very possible that Laura will become a major hurricane over the NW Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Laura has a large wind field and this wind field will help to induce an potentially large storm surge along the upper TX coast and SW LA coast later this week.
Actions:
Preparations for the landfall of a hurricane along the upper TX and SW LA coast should begin
Keep vehicle gas tanks full
Review evacuation plans in coastal areas and be prepared to enact those plans early this week
Follow all recommendations from local emergency or elected officials
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
The GFS track is scary for a number of reasons, but two stick out to me:
1) This is a significant shift in just one model run
2) It was initialized too far north (again)
1) This is a significant shift in just one model run
2) It was initialized too far north (again)
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MontgomeryCoWx
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My thoughts exactly.
If we do get a major on the Texas Coast, I’m going chasing.
Team #NeverSummer
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weatherguy425
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The Para GEFS (new, upgraded GFS) continues to strongly favor a Texas landfall. Oranges? Forecast area of lowest pressure.
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Texaspirate11
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Our NWS HAS a great YouTube out on the info
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
How much more confidence in the track should there be tomorrow morning?
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MontgomeryCoWx
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