January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:14 pm

HGX added a 30 percent chance of snow, yet it's not reflecting on the point forecasts yet. Not sure why

Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:17 pm

I checked the NOAA site for my area and Tuesday night a low of 28 but 20% rain. Does this mean it will rain before it freezes or they aren't quite ready to put the wintry mix icon?

Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:21 pm

SusieinLP wrote:I checked the NOAA site for my area and Tuesday night a low of 25 but 20% rain. Does this mean it will rain before it freezes or they aren't quite ready to put the wintry mix icon?

They did add Sleet and Snow to the forecast but for some reason it's only showing up in the zone forecasts and the forecast map

Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:32 pm

Time Heller tweets: @HellerWeather
"Weather Alert! More wintry precip could fall across the #Houston area early next week. More sleet/snow this time."

David Paul said 20% chance last night...now HGX saying 30%

Hopefully the models play in our favor as we go into tomorrow and Monday.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:40 pm

It seems like this possible winter weather event is garnering more attention early I've heard several local OCM'S mention it this morning.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:45 pm

cperk wrote:It seems like this possible winter weather event is garnering more attention early I've heard several local OCM'S mention it this morning.

Well we are only 3-4 days out so time is a factor but I think the other thing is after this last event everyone just wants to make the public aware of the POSSIBILITY that we could see something later next week.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 5:55 pm

NWS H/G Temperatures look to be colder than last week which would shift the threat more toward sleet and
snow...rather than freezing rain.

I like this solution a whole lot more than freezing rain.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 6:48 pm

Updated on NOAA to 30% sleet/snow on Tuesday / Tuesday night for my area

Paul Robison · Sat Jan 25, 2014 6:58 pm

Will the damage from this upcoming winter weather event be worse than Friday's in terms of tree/power line/property damage?

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:03 pm

HGX has inserted a 30 percent chance of snow in my area forecast for Tuesday.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:05 pm

NWS also has Metro Houston with a 30 percent chance of snow after noon on Tuesday: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... uRb-WROKc0. What's interesting to me about that is that they are forecasting a low of 29 Monday night and partly sunny with a high of 40 for Tuesday. Certainly lots of details to be worked out, but under this scenario it sounds like much or all of any snowfall during the afternoon on Tuesday could very well be melting on contact rather than accumulating. Of course they also have a 20 percent chance of snow for Metro Houston on Tuesday night, when temps are forecast to be well below freezing. If that happens, we might have to enjoy it for the little while that it lasts--if temps warm into the 40s on Wednesday, it wouldn't be long before the white stuff disappears.

Paul Robison · Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:10 pm

txsnowmaker wrote:NWS also has Metro Houston with a 30 percent chance of snow after noon on Tuesday: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... uRb-WROKc0. What's interesting to me about that is that they are forecasting a low of 29 Monday night and partly sunny with a high of 40 for Tuesday. Certainly lots of details to be worked out, but under this scenario it sounds like much or all of any snowfall during the afternoon on Tuesday could very well be melting on contact rather than accumulating. Of course they also have a 20 percent chance of snow for Metro Houston on Tuesday night, when temps are forecast to be well below freezing. If that happens, we might have to enjoy it for the little while that it lasts--if temps warm into the 40s on Wednesday, it wouldn't be long before the white stuff disappears.

Then this is more of a nuisance winter cold rather than a crippling winter cold event, txsnowmaker?

Oh, this little tidbit from ERCOT's webpage about forecast loads. It kinda bothers me. Can anyone explain it to me?

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:15 pm

Paul Robison wrote:Will the damage from this upcoming winter weather event be worse than Friday's in terms of tree/power line/property damage?

I am not a pro, but if the trends continue to suggest snow vs freezing rain for any precip that might fall, unless we start hearing talk about an 1895-type event, when Houston received over 20 inches of snow, I doubt we'll have anything to be too concerned about.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:16 pm

Paul Robison wrote:
txsnowmaker wrote:NWS also has Metro Houston with a 30 percent chance of snow after noon on Tuesday: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... uRb-WROKc0. What's interesting to me about that is that they are forecasting a low of 29 Monday night and partly sunny with a high of 40 for Tuesday. Certainly lots of details to be worked out, but under this scenario it sounds like much or all of any snowfall during the afternoon on Tuesday could very well be melting on contact rather than accumulating. Of course they also have a 20 percent chance of snow for Metro Houston on Tuesday night, when temps are forecast to be well below freezing. If that happens, we might have to enjoy it for the little while that it lasts--if temps warm into the 40s on Wednesday, it wouldn't be long before the white stuff disappears.

Then this is more of a nuisance winter cold rather than a crippling winter cold event, txsnowmaker?

Oh, this little tidbit from ERCOT's webpage about forecast loads. It kinda bothers me. Can anyone explain it to me?

That remains to be seen.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:18 pm

Now they are showing 20% sleet/snow for Wednesday. That wasn't there 30 minutes ago... Ugh.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:20 pm

cperk wrote:
Paul Robison wrote:
txsnowmaker wrote:NWS also has Metro Houston with a 30 percent chance of snow after noon on Tuesday: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... uRb-WROKc0. What's interesting to me about that is that they are forecasting a low of 29 Monday night and partly sunny with a high of 40 for Tuesday. Certainly lots of details to be worked out, but under this scenario it sounds like much or all of any snowfall during the afternoon on Tuesday could very well be melting on contact rather than accumulating. Of course they also have a 20 percent chance of snow for Metro Houston on Tuesday night, when temps are forecast to be well below freezing. If that happens, we might have to enjoy it for the little while that it lasts--if temps warm into the 40s on Wednesday, it wouldn't be long before the white stuff disappears.

Then this is more of a nuisance winter cold rather than a crippling winter cold event, txsnowmaker?

Oh, this little tidbit from ERCOT's webpage about forecast loads. It kinda bothers me. Can anyone explain it to me?

That remains to be seen.

Indeed. Paul Robison, notice that my thoughts include lots of ifs and other such caveats. We'll just have to wait and see what actually plays out. Also, the Houston region is quite large. What one experiences in Galveston, The Woodlands, Cypress, or Metro Houston can be quite different as we all know.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:34 pm

My area received 7" of snow during the Christmas eve 2004 storm. If there are significant accumulations greater than 1 or 2 inches the snow will not be all melted after a 40 degree day. It took a full week to melt it all off in 2004 and the snow pack helps to keep temps lowerin the meantime. Not saying I expect an event of that magnitude to happen. But significant snow accumulation in my experience does not melt away quickly. It all depends on the amount.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:35 pm

Now they are showing 20% sleet/snow for Wednesday. That wasn't there 30 minutes ago... Ugh. Now it's gone. I'm not looking at it again until tomorrow.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:43 pm

Susie, you have to be patient with the NWS. Forecasting snow down here 3-4 days out is a difficult task. They don't want to over hype a potential event only for the next model runs to show dry conditions. At the same time they have to mention it and include it in the forecast in order to warn people that another rare winter storm may be coming to SE TX.

Sat Jan 25, 2014 7:44 pm

ronyan wrote:My area received 7" of snow during the Christmas eve 2004 storm. If there are significant accumulations greater than 1 or 2 inches the snow will not be all melted after a 40 degree day. It took a full week to melt it all off in 2004 and the snow pack helps to keep temps lowerin the meantime. Not saying I expect an event of that magnitude to happen. But significant snow accumulation in my experience does not melt away quickly. It all depends on the amount.

Duly noted. I have become quite numbed by predictions of accumulating snowfall for the city, as the last few "events" in the 2000s did not play out as forecasted even just 1 day out. The last time there was measureable snow that stayed on the ground/rooftops across the entire city was in December 1989 (I realize that some locations in the region and even within city limits have experienced that more recently).

January: Calmer Pattern To End The Month

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