February 2025

[tireman4]

GFS and Canadian Ensembles

[Pas_Bon]

You see.. down here in S.E Tx and S.W. La we dont use groundhogs. We use bullfrogs. Boudreaux the Bullfrog did not see his shadow so that couyon say come on up, crawfish, its safe now.. aayyeeeee.....

Agreed, but it IS spelled "couillon"

I heard it's going to be a good crawfish season.

It will be after a bit of a lull, thanks to the Great Louisiana Blizzard.

[tireman4]

Winter Is Coming Back

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Visibilities and ceilings continue to gradually improve for all
TAF sites except for GLS as inland patchy fog steadily erodes.
Southerly winds around 10-15 kt will help to keep the lower levels
mixed allowing for VFR ceilings to prevail throughout the
afternoon for most sites. Going into the evening/overnight hours,
expect a downward trend in visibilities and ceilings as another
round of patchy dense fog settles in. Expecting periods of dense
fog for at least IAH and southward as winds are at their lightest
in the 08Z-15Z timeframe. Fog/low ceilings begin to erode again
around 16Z as southerly winds begin to pick up.

[Pas_Bon]

Winter Strikes Back

[tireman4]

Euro Temperature Anomaly and 500 MB Height Dam

[Stratton20]

That’s a classic Cold air dam break look, bring it on I say!

[sambucol]

Would that make it to the Texas coast?

[tireman4]

Travis Herzog

[tireman4]

133
FXUS64 KHGX 052032
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
232 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

On this warm April day...wait a minute...it`s still February and it
feels like THAT outside?! Didn`t we just have a winter storm a
couple of weeks ago?! Whelp let`s try this again...on this warm
FEBRUARY day we`re already seeing temperatures reaching into the
upper 70s to low 80s once again. A few spots are approaching the
daily maximum temperature record, but these will be harder to
break today since a lot of them are a few degrees higher than the
records from February 4th (yesterday) and 6th (tomorrow). It`s not
impossible...but certainly it`ll be a tougher task to break or
tie records today. The exception to that is Houston/IAH, which as
of 2pm is one degree shy of tying the record of 83F set back in
1957. We still have surface high pressure off to our east
allowing for onshore flow to provide a steady funnel of WAA and
moisture advection. An upper level low near south Texas today is
drifting eastward into the western Gulf. Some bands of PVA
combined with being in the left entrance region of a LLJ that`s
situated to our north has proven enough to generate some spotty
light rain showers. I`ve added in some 15% PoPs generally west of
I-45 through the afternoon as a result.

The big story for the foreseeable (pun intended) future will be fog.
Sea fog remains along the coast this afternoon, but will surge back
inland as we head towards the evening and overnight hours. Fog will
be dense at times especially in and around Galveston Bay into the
mid-morning hours. Expect mild temperatures overnight with lows
mainly in the mid to upper 60s...so even our low temperatures are
above the normal high temperature...neat! Expect to see more low 80s
on the map tomorrow afternoon with 850mb temperatures approaching
the 99th percentile. The daily record high temperatures for tomorrow
are "softer", so the probabilities of breaking/tying them will be
higher than they are for today. Temperatures tomorrow night will
bottom out in the mid 60s with patchy dense fog taking hold once
again. So, long story short, the main differences between today and
tomorrow are 1-2F in temperature differences and a slight chance
of spotty rain today with slim to no chance tomorrow.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Status quo to end the work week and continuing through the weekend
with an early taste of Spring (perhaps false Spring!). Unseasonably
warm and moist conditions will keep highs near or above record
levels with cyclic foggy mornings (more persistent along the
coast/near the bay). High temps will continue to run a good 20
degrees above normal well into the 80s. Models have continued to
hold/stall the first in a series of cold fronts north of southeast
TX on Sunday, so high temps Sunday and Monday have been bumped up a
bit in the extended to account for this. However, the main front
will still push across southeast TX by mid week/Tuesday bringing a
noticeable return to seasonably cool temps and a good chance of
wetting rains Tuesday and Wednesday.

Evans

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Visibilities and ceilings continue to gradually improve for all
TAF sites except for GLS as inland patchy fog steadily erodes.
Southerly winds around 10-15 kt will help to keep the lower levels
mixed allowing for VFR ceilings to prevail throughout the
afternoon for most sites. Going into the evening/overnight hours,
expect a downward trend in visibilities and ceilings as another
round of patchy dense fog settles in. Expecting periods of dense
fog for at least IAH and southward as winds are at their lightest
in the 08Z-15Z timeframe. Fog/low ceilings begin to erode again
around 16Z as southerly winds begin to pick up.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

With onshore flow prevailing, the threat for sea fog will continue
through the end of the week. Fog has become patchy this afternoon
allowing the transition from a Dense Fog Advisory to a Marine
Weather Statement, but where that fog remains...it remains rather
dense. Fog will become more widespread and increasingly denser
later this evening and prevailing into the mid-morning hours.
Expect this to be a consistent theme through at least the weekend.
The nearshore waters are not expected to see much improvement
during the daytime hours, so the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has
been extended into Thursday afternoon and will likely be extended
beyond that in future updates.

With above normal temperatures persisting, there will be some
gradual warming of sea surface temperatures this week which could
make the development of sea fog less likely. However, the threat
will continue to remain until a cold front pushes offshore early
next week. Until then, mariners can expect light to occasionally
moderate onshore flow and periods of sea fog.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 81 66 82 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 63 70 62 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ350-355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Evans
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Batiste

f

[biggerbyte]

It certainly looks promising. This cold airmass can not help but sink south in spite of everything. The Berlin Wall of Winter would surely come tumbling down. However, will it defeat old heat miser.

Stay tuned. We need about another week.

[jasons2k]

Shaping up to be a bad ice storm for DFW. Some folks here in SE Texas are gonna be screaming mad in disbelief at how “close” Jack Frost came to paying us a visit.

[Stratton20]

Lol no, that arctic air is going all the way to mexico, jack frost is coming to houston

[Scott747]

Yeah winter is definitely over in february, definitely not looking good for any real cold intrusions, se ridge taking over, troughing in alaska, game over for winter lovers, it was fun while it lasted

Great news!

[Stratton20]

Scott747 Yeah i think i spoke a little too soon on that one, my comment is going to age terribly

[biggerbyte]

Yeah winter is definitely over in february, definitely not looking good for any real cold intrusions, se ridge taking over, troughing in alaska, game over for winter lovers, it was fun while it lasted

Great news!

Yup..

Gotta love those extended forecasts. LOL

I keep getting signals of an Arizona demandadoodle in the mist. Anyone else?

[Stratton20]

Lol im definitely not like that arizona troll dude ( yeah saw his posts from years ago in some of the other past weather discussion feeds, because i have no problem in admitting i contradicted myself in my last couple of posts, winter is coming back, just one of those times i tried to cancel winter because i didnt like what i saw in the models, im very much guilty of that haha

[Cpv17]

Ok, that’s enough criticism. That’s not what this place is about. Don’t care how old you are, how much money you have, or how much experience you have regarding the weather. Everyone is equal on here and should be treated like it. Too much disrespect in this place.

[Nuby33]

Lol im definitely not like that arizona troll dude ( yeah saw his posts from years ago in some of the other past weather discussion feeds, because i have no problem in admitting i contradicted myself in my last couple of posts, winter is coming back, just one of those times i tried to cancel winter because i didnt like what i saw in the models, im very much guilty of that haha

It would have to be all caps and include a potential doomsday scenario....Haha

[tireman4]

Back to weather, please...the Euro