Wx Infinity Forums

redneckweather wrote:Man, this thread is SLOW with the possibility of a hurricane hitting the central to upper Texas coast in 2 days! This goes to show you that a lot of people don't have a clue what is brewing out there. I told my parents this morning about the possibility and they thought I was full of crap and laughed at me.

I agree - I think a LOT of people will be surprised later this afternoon. It's the exact reason why people along the coastal area should be prepared - storms like this one that can whip up in the gulf at the last minute. Anyone that went through Alicia knows that very well.

I would have to agree! I mentioned it to a few people here at work this morning and they had no clue that anything was out there aimed for TX. They about fell out of there chair when I told them it was expected to make landfall somewhere in TX Fri-Sat!!

I think the media needs to get the word out to PREPARE for anything, NOT scare anyone! VERY short time between now and Friday!

I know how much we need the rain, but the most reliable of the globals is pointing towards Padre Island, and for a fairly small system, that wouldn't be a happy solution locally.

It has been wrong before ( I think you are speaking of the Euro). The models ( although Bret and Cindy were total exceptions, however....) did not handle those two systems well at all. The size is really not that small, especially now that it is in the developing stage. We will just have to wait and see. This is my opinion only.

To add to this, Bill Read discussed at length this past Saturday that Gulf storms and particularly those in the Western Gulf create a huge problem from a forecasting and OEM standpoint. He brought up Humberto and how if that storm had slowed just a little, how quickly it could have become a much bigger problem than it was. Rapid Intensification (RI) with Gulf storms is one of the biggest concerns the NHC has because things can and often do change very quickly and catch the general public off guard.

I just got off the phone with a buddy of mine talking about Humberto. These smaller systems seem to ramp up pretty quick near the coast don't they? Not saying this one will but it wouldn't surprise me if it did since conditions don't look bad at all when it gets close to the coast.


Very good point srain.

Well, HGX is trying to get the word out. Updated graphics on their main page...

Does anyone think that the overall size of this storm will increase greatly once it gets fully in the Gulf? Or does it appear that it will stay a "smaller" storm area wise?

Humberto and I remember a little ole hurricane called Jerry that went over my house one October. Enough wind to break limbs and lift off the carport to my grandparents house.

I think its bear watch time.

Rich wrote:Does anyone think that the overall size of this storm will increase greatly once it gets fully in the Gulf? Or does it appear that it will stay a "smaller" storm area wise?

I think it'll be a below-average sized hurricane (yes hurricane) when it reaches Texas Friday night. Quite a bit larger than Humberto or Jerry, but way smaller than Ike.

The high pressure conveyer belt is going to speed up that healthy tropical waves' travel with it being predicted to make landfall somewhere here in Texas the day after tomorrow.

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

wxman57 wrote:

Rich wrote:Does anyone think that the overall size of this storm will increase greatly once it gets fully in the Gulf? Or does it appear that it will stay a "smaller" storm area wise?

I think it'll be a below-average sized hurricane (yes hurricane) when it reaches Texas Friday night. Quite a bit larger than Humberto or Jerry, but way smaller than Ike.

Not seeing the model love for that, but I am not a very highly paid professional either. Why do you think it'll strengthen much, and can it come close enough up the coast to drop an inch or four on my yard?

There has not been model love for this system to do anything ever 3 days out. The models have handled this terribly. Do not take the models word for word anymore. It's exhausting listening to you waffle. No offense, just my opinion.

looks like model watch fatigue is already starting to set in

Thanks for the responses Ed and Wxman57!! Hopefully all of our yards will get a good soaking out of this!!

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

nuby3 wrote:[
There has not been model love for this system to do anything ever 3 days out. The models have handled this terribly. Do not take the models word for word anymore. It's exhausting listening to you waffle. No offense, just my opinion.

Waffle?

if you had the reading comprehension of a gnat, you'd see I was asking a board pro-met what his reasoning was to think 90L had a chance of making it to hurricane strength.


No offense. Just my opinion.

I have one of the top percentage IQs in the world, just so you know. And I caught that. But I was referring to your days of model reading and saying this would never do anything. "Next." I just think you should give less of your opinion because you are misleading at times. Sorry if that offends you.

PLAY NICE!

We have a possible hurricane affecting our area. This is not the time to call eachother stupid for dumb reasons.

Anyways, I have my fingers crossed that we could all get some really good rainfall out of this.

WXman, what are you and the people at the office thinking about the track?

Give it up, Nuby3. You are wasting your breath with Ed. We should just stay on topic and share the ignore button with him. Catch my drift?

biggerbyte wrote:Give it up, Nuby3. You are wasting your breath with Ed. We should just stay on topic and share the ignore button with him. Catch my drift?

Yes, I know. I apologize to anyone offended. I'm nervous about this. I'm hoping it doesn't do anything crazy

Back on topic...what's the dealio with the recon? Was supposed to have departed a little while ago, but haven't heard anything out of it.

jgreak wrote:Back on topic...what's the dealio with the recon? Was supposed to have departed a little while ago, but haven't heard anything out of it.

It could be a communication issue or they are just delaying updates until RECON is a bit closer. We will see.

Our friends at ImpactWeather have released a video update regarding 90L...

http://www.youtube.com/user/impactweath ... NJxLrIvgKk