October 2024

[Cromagnum]

0% chance of rain in sight for the 10 day forecast

[Pas_Bon]

0% chance of rain in sight for the 10 day forecast

A lot of the grass between League City and Alvin is brown and crispy. I hate this drought stuff.
It is everything I can do to just barely keep the fruit trees alive. Some won't make it.

[Cpv17]

0% chance of rain in sight for the 10 day forecast

Probably the rest of the month.

[Cpv17]

If I’m being completely honest, I don’t think we’ll see much rain for the rest of the year.

[Stratton20]

After what happened in florida with flooding rainfall from Milton ( tampa say 15 inches in just a few hours) outside of the wind and surge, we need the rain, but it could definitely be a lot worse right now, we will get rain eventually

[jasons2k]

Today’s USDA drought monitor shows an expanding drought in Texas.

A wet spring combined with a dry fall is bad news for wildfire season

It’s been a long and tough week. I put in my fair share of cleaning up garbage on Storm2k. There’s still a lot but we try.

Added some comments in the tropical thread WRT Milton.

[Stratton20]

NOAA 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks actually have above normal precipitation for parts of texas, first time in a while i haven’t seen brown lol

[DoctorMu]

Texarrakis continues for another week. Hot days with increasing humdity. More seasonal weather beginning next Wednesday, but most of the cool weather is heading east.

No rain is the forecast for CLL through at least 10 days.

[DoctorMu]

Today’s USDA drought monitor shows an expanding drought in Texas.

A wet spring combined with a dry fall is bad news for wildfire season

It’s been a long and tough week. I put in my fair share of cleaning up garbage on Storm2k. There’s still a lot but we try.

Added some comments in the tropical thread WRT Milton.

Lots of kindling. A burn ban is on in our area.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu i dont buy the cool air shifting east, this happens in the winter every time with the models, every time they try to shunt the cold ( in this case cool) air off to the east, it ends up correcting back to the west, same thing happens here, ICON /CMC have more of the correct idea

[Cpv17]

DoctorMu i dont buy the cool air shifting east, this happens in the winter every time with the models, every time they try to shunt the cold ( in this case cool) air off to the east, it ends up correcting back to the west, same thing happens here, ICON /CMC have more of the correct idea

It can go east. That’s fine with me.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 no thanks, anything above 80 is just miserable

[tireman4]

921
FXUS64 KHGX 111109
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
609 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Hot and dry weather will continue through Saturday (and beyond) as
surface high pressure builds over SE CONUS and encroaches into our
region. There will be a very weak shortwave moving down through the
area later today, but the atmosphere is so dry that it won`t be
noticeable. Mid-level ridging will begin to move in from the west on
Saturday increasing temperatures by a couple of degrees.

High temperatures will be running around 10 degrees above normal
with afternoon temperatures getting into the low to mid 90s. Low
temperatures tonight will a tad more seasonal, about 5 degrees above
normal, with lows in the low to mid 60s for most of the area and low
70s at the coast. Temperatures Saturday night will be a few degrees
warmer with lows in the mid to upper 60s for most of the region.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

The upcoming week will start very warm as mid level high pressure
expands over TX and south to southwesterly flow sets up across
Southeast TX. This will lead to highs ranging from 10 to 14
degrees above normal on Sunday and Monday. For Sunday, the highs
will be in the low to mid 90s inland and in the upper 80s along
the coast. By Monday, winds will be west to southwest with
widespread highs in the mid 90s inland and in the upper 80s to
low 90s over the coastal locations.

Luckily, some relief is expected thereafter as a dry cold front
pushes across Southeast TX Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures will cool down in the wake of the front, leading to
highs in the low to mid 80s over areas east of I-45 and in the
upper 80s to low 90s over areas west of I-45 on Tuesday. The lows
just before sunrise on Wednesday, will bottom out in the low to
mid 50s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, and the
upper 50s to low 60s elsewhere. The highs on Wednesday will be in
upper 70s to low 80s...yes, it will feel like fall. A gradual
warming trend will begin Thursday into Friday.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 603 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period with
light, variable winds through the morning becoming southeasterly
at around 6-10kt in the afternoon, then back to light and variable
overnight. LBX has had some patchy fog develop during the late
night hours the past couple of nights, so it is possible that it
will develop again tonight.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Seas will continue to subside today across the offshore waters.
From Saturday through Monday, light southerly flow with seas
around 2 feet are expected. A cold front is expected to pass
through SE TX late Monday into Tuesday morning, and moderate to
strong northeast to east winds and elevated seas will develop in
the wake of the front. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories
will likely be required Tuesday into Wednesday. Moderate onshore
flow returns Thursday.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 61 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 66 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 83 74 84 74 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Cotto (24)

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 no thanks, anything above 80 is just miserable

It really depends on the humidity for me. 90 with comfortable humidity is no problem for me.

[DoctorMu]

Cpv17 no thanks, anything above 80 is just miserable

It really depends on the humidity for me. 90 with comfortable humidity is no problem for me.

For me - any dewpoint of more than the low 60s WITH temps above the upper 80s sucks.

The cool air is going East. We'll get something closer to normal next Wednesday.

Gainesville FL high is progged at 69°F next Wednesday; College Station = 81°F.

I remember when (1980s, 90s) LATX could get a mid-October cold front that would yield highs in the mid or upper 60s.

No more.

[tireman4]

In meteorology news, Blake is a pro met that many of us know. We wish him well in his future endeavors.

Blake Mathews
@BlakeMathews08
Today is my last day as a broadcast meteorologist. Thanks for the memories. You’ll be seeing me again, just not in a capacity you might think. Then vs now—17 years apart.

[Stratton20]

Larry Cosgrove says watch for a big shot of colder air at the end of the month, ensembles have a good setup for cold air to bud up and get dislodged, in fact they are trending towards a setup that the Euro AIFS has been showing for days, interesting, we are going to find out how good the AIFS is with pattern recognition

[Cpv17]

Larry Cosgrove says watch for a big shot of colder air at the end of the month, ensembles have a good setup for cold air to bud up and get dislodged, in fact they are trending towards a setup that the Euro AIFS has been showing for days, interesting, we are going to find out how good the AIFS is with pattern recognition

The end of October is usually when we get our first big front. So that wouldn’t surprise me.

[Stratton20]

First time ive seen lots of green over texas in quite some time lol

[JDsGN]

I guess I'm just missing the models that are even showing rain. A few models show some rain along a front 20-22 range but the only one showing much rain is the Euro AI model. I sure hope we get some rain the next 6-10 days