August 2024
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Just some general storms, nothing tropical
10-4, thank you.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
334
FXUS64 KHGX 121944
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
244 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
A few thunderstorms beginning to fire up along the sea breeze this
afternoon. Storms are expected to remain sub-severe, but could
produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Expect activity to die
down with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Tonight will
feel pretty warm and muggy. Lows in the upper 70s to low 80s
combined with the humidity will not provide much relief from today`s
hot temperatures. Because of this, have opted to continue the
current Heat Advisory through the overnight hours into Tuesday
evening. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for the entire area
Tuesday afternoon as the mid-upper level ridge continues to
strengthen overhead. Increased low-level moisture in concert with
the sea-breeze will lead to another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again tapering off
in the evening hours. Will need to monitor for the potential of
upgrading the Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning for
portions of SE Texas on Tuesday. Values are bordering the warning
criteria at the moment, so will see how they trend with the
overnight forecast.
Otherwise, continue to use caution in the heat. Stay hydrated, avoid
strenuous activity during the hottest time of day, and LOOK BEFORE
YOU LOCK! Remember, pet owners, if the ground is too hot for the
palm of your hand, it is too hot for their paws.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
The main weather story in the long term will be the continued heat
and humidity. Model blends showing max heat indices on most days
during this period up near excessive heat warning
thresholds...113F...for many areas. Heat index very sensitive to dew
point which can at times be overdone by models...but certainly
possible we could hit those levels. In any case expecting a long
duration of hot weather ahead with heat stress a concern for those
outdoors away from air conditioning.
As far as rain chances...looking like a few isolated thunderstorms
possible most days along sea breeze fronts...with typical summertime
progression near the coast in morning working up into another row of
counties inland during afternoon...at least through the Wed through
Fri period...but that is about it with most areas remaining dry.
Reilly
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
VFR conditions prevailing through the period. IAH bouncing between
BKN/SCT at MVFR threshold. Winds will become southeasterly around
10-12 kts with the sea breeze this afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
With high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico through much of the
forecast period...expect mainly light S to SE winds less than 10
knots and low seas for most part. During the overnight hours, winds
may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances
will remain low.
Reilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 98 77 98 / 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 98 79 97 / 0 30 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 83 91 / 0 30 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>212.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ213-214-226-227-
235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Reilly
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Reilly
FXUS64 KHGX 121944
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
244 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
A few thunderstorms beginning to fire up along the sea breeze this
afternoon. Storms are expected to remain sub-severe, but could
produce frequent lightning and gusty winds. Expect activity to die
down with the loss of daytime heating this evening. Tonight will
feel pretty warm and muggy. Lows in the upper 70s to low 80s
combined with the humidity will not provide much relief from today`s
hot temperatures. Because of this, have opted to continue the
current Heat Advisory through the overnight hours into Tuesday
evening. A Heat Advisory will be in effect for the entire area
Tuesday afternoon as the mid-upper level ridge continues to
strengthen overhead. Increased low-level moisture in concert with
the sea-breeze will lead to another round of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again tapering off
in the evening hours. Will need to monitor for the potential of
upgrading the Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning for
portions of SE Texas on Tuesday. Values are bordering the warning
criteria at the moment, so will see how they trend with the
overnight forecast.
Otherwise, continue to use caution in the heat. Stay hydrated, avoid
strenuous activity during the hottest time of day, and LOOK BEFORE
YOU LOCK! Remember, pet owners, if the ground is too hot for the
palm of your hand, it is too hot for their paws.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
The main weather story in the long term will be the continued heat
and humidity. Model blends showing max heat indices on most days
during this period up near excessive heat warning
thresholds...113F...for many areas. Heat index very sensitive to dew
point which can at times be overdone by models...but certainly
possible we could hit those levels. In any case expecting a long
duration of hot weather ahead with heat stress a concern for those
outdoors away from air conditioning.
As far as rain chances...looking like a few isolated thunderstorms
possible most days along sea breeze fronts...with typical summertime
progression near the coast in morning working up into another row of
counties inland during afternoon...at least through the Wed through
Fri period...but that is about it with most areas remaining dry.
Reilly
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
VFR conditions prevailing through the period. IAH bouncing between
BKN/SCT at MVFR threshold. Winds will become southeasterly around
10-12 kts with the sea breeze this afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon/evening.
Adams
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024
With high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico through much of the
forecast period...expect mainly light S to SE winds less than 10
knots and low seas for most part. During the overnight hours, winds
may intermittently increase to around 10 to 15 knots. Rain chances
will remain low.
Reilly
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 98 77 98 / 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 98 79 97 / 0 30 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 82 91 83 91 / 0 30 0 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>212.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ213-214-226-227-
235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Reilly
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Reilly
Way to go. Stick it to The Man!
https://youtu.be/gj2iGAifSNI?si=q17WLD6bS0I-siYp
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
58
FXUS64 KHGX 130755
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
Ridging will continue to dominate area wx with hot & humid
conditions prevailing. Will maintain Heat Advisory for the CWA today
with heat index values peaking in the 106-111F range.
Despite PW`s around 2", warm H85 & H7 temps should generally keep a
lid on rain chances n/nw of the US50/I69 corridor today, conditions
aren`t quite as hostile closer to the coast and would anticipate
some isolated to scattered storm development near the coast in the
mid morning thru late afternoon hours. PW`s drop a bit Wednesday, so
chances & overall coverage should be lower than what we see today. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
What if I told you...
(_)
it`s going to get hotter
With mid-level high pressure remaining either very close by or
directly overhead, this extended period of hot and humid conditions
will persist for what seems like forever. It is mid August and it is
usually hot...but even by our "normal" standards (96F is the normal
high for the City of Houston this time of the year), temperatures
going into the weekend will be firmly in above normal territory. We
pick things up on Thursday with high temperatures mainly in the
upper 90s, then we essentially will add about a degree or so with
each passing day. This means that over the weekend, we`re
anticipating the return of widespread triple digit temperatures in
Southeast TX. The typical humid air will persist with dew points
peaking in the upper 70s and PW values mainly in the 1.7-2.0" range
throughout the week. This means two things...firstly that our heat
indices will remain AT LEAST in Heat Advisory territory and secondly
that we`ll continue with our daily rain chances through the early
part of the weekend.
Heat indices look to peak mainly in the 108-113F range throughout
the week. There may be a few days late in the week/over the weekend
where enough heat indices are right up against or above the 113F
mark, which could warrant an Excessive Heat Warning. We can pretty
much lock in that at least a Heat Advisory will be needed into early
next week. Slight chances for isolated showers/storms along the
seabreeze will continue into the end of the work week, but PoPs will
be on a downward trend as the mid-level high strengthens and a more
amplified ridge axis slides in. Increased subsidence (sinking air)
equals decreased rain chances. 850mb temperatures will be firmly in
the 99th to MAX percentiles (NAEFS/GEFS) at the end of the week/over
the weekend, so that sinking air will help to mix those warmer
temperatures to the surface...which results in our triple digit
temperatures.
With heat indices expected to warrant that at least a Heat Advisory
( 108F) be in effect into early next week, please continue to keep
heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make (especially
if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses (heat
stroke/heat exhaustion), know the locations of the nearest cooling
centers, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the
hottest part of the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-colored
clothing, check in on those with vulnerabilities, and ALWAYS ALWAYS
ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your
pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand,
then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe and stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
VFR condition will mostly prevail, though some locations might see
some intermittent MVFR ceilings as daytime heating sets in toward
mid morning. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible closer to
the coast...mainly IAH southward during the day. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
Benign marine conditions persist with light onshore winds and low
seas persisting throughout the week. Winds may intermittently
increase to 10-15 knots overnight. Slim chances for isolated
showers/storms in the early morning to afternoon hours throughout
the week.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 78 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 80 97 79 / 20 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 84 92 83 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>212.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ213-214-226-227-
235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 130755
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
Ridging will continue to dominate area wx with hot & humid
conditions prevailing. Will maintain Heat Advisory for the CWA today
with heat index values peaking in the 106-111F range.
Despite PW`s around 2", warm H85 & H7 temps should generally keep a
lid on rain chances n/nw of the US50/I69 corridor today, conditions
aren`t quite as hostile closer to the coast and would anticipate
some isolated to scattered storm development near the coast in the
mid morning thru late afternoon hours. PW`s drop a bit Wednesday, so
chances & overall coverage should be lower than what we see today. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
What if I told you...
(_)
it`s going to get hotter
With mid-level high pressure remaining either very close by or
directly overhead, this extended period of hot and humid conditions
will persist for what seems like forever. It is mid August and it is
usually hot...but even by our "normal" standards (96F is the normal
high for the City of Houston this time of the year), temperatures
going into the weekend will be firmly in above normal territory. We
pick things up on Thursday with high temperatures mainly in the
upper 90s, then we essentially will add about a degree or so with
each passing day. This means that over the weekend, we`re
anticipating the return of widespread triple digit temperatures in
Southeast TX. The typical humid air will persist with dew points
peaking in the upper 70s and PW values mainly in the 1.7-2.0" range
throughout the week. This means two things...firstly that our heat
indices will remain AT LEAST in Heat Advisory territory and secondly
that we`ll continue with our daily rain chances through the early
part of the weekend.
Heat indices look to peak mainly in the 108-113F range throughout
the week. There may be a few days late in the week/over the weekend
where enough heat indices are right up against or above the 113F
mark, which could warrant an Excessive Heat Warning. We can pretty
much lock in that at least a Heat Advisory will be needed into early
next week. Slight chances for isolated showers/storms along the
seabreeze will continue into the end of the work week, but PoPs will
be on a downward trend as the mid-level high strengthens and a more
amplified ridge axis slides in. Increased subsidence (sinking air)
equals decreased rain chances. 850mb temperatures will be firmly in
the 99th to MAX percentiles (NAEFS/GEFS) at the end of the week/over
the weekend, so that sinking air will help to mix those warmer
temperatures to the surface...which results in our triple digit
temperatures.
With heat indices expected to warrant that at least a Heat Advisory
( 108F) be in effect into early next week, please continue to keep
heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make (especially
if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses (heat
stroke/heat exhaustion), know the locations of the nearest cooling
centers, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the
hottest part of the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-colored
clothing, check in on those with vulnerabilities, and ALWAYS ALWAYS
ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about your
pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand,
then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe and stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
VFR condition will mostly prevail, though some locations might see
some intermittent MVFR ceilings as daytime heating sets in toward
mid morning. Isolated-scattered storms will be possible closer to
the coast...mainly IAH southward during the day. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
Benign marine conditions persist with light onshore winds and low
seas persisting throughout the week. Winds may intermittently
increase to 10-15 knots overnight. Slim chances for isolated
showers/storms in the early morning to afternoon hours throughout
the week.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 78 98 77 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 80 97 79 / 20 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 84 92 83 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>212.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ213-214-226-227-
235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
Well heck, they cut me this morning. Wouldn’t even let me finish my two weeks. Said since I was still in training that there was no reason to keep me around. Other guys warned me that would happen too. Said they do that to pretty much everyone that works in the plant. So the whole training thing was probably just a scapegoat. Office manager told me don’t worry about it though. She said I did everything the right way.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 10:02 pmWay to go. Stick it to The Man!
https://youtu.be/gj2iGAifSNI?si=q17WLD6bS0I-siYp
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
SCT to BKN mid to high clouds are expected this afternoon, with
isolated to scattered showers and storms near/at some terminals.
Highest probabilities of VCTS for terminals mainly IAH coastward
through 23Z/01Z. Winds will generally remain from the south-
southeast from 5 to 10 knots...becoming light and variable after
sunset. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through most of the
period.
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
SCT to BKN mid to high clouds are expected this afternoon, with
isolated to scattered showers and storms near/at some terminals.
Highest probabilities of VCTS for terminals mainly IAH coastward
through 23Z/01Z. Winds will generally remain from the south-
southeast from 5 to 10 knots...becoming light and variable after
sunset. Overall, VFR conditions are expected through most of the
period.
Crap - that is just like the song. You'll be better off.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 13, 2024 10:57 amWell heck, they cut me this morning. Wouldn’t even let me finish my two weeks. Said since I was still in training that there was no reason to keep me around. Other guys warned me that would happen too. Said they do that to pretty much everyone that works in the plant. So the whole training thing was probably just a scapegoat. Office manager told me don’t worry about it though. She said I did everything the right way.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Aug 12, 2024 10:02 pmWay to go. Stick it to The Man!
https://youtu.be/gj2iGAifSNI?si=q17WLD6bS0I-siYp
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Nice cooling pop up thunderstorm here
LOL I know, its crazy hot up there right now.
I'm just hoping nothing tropical comes until i leave LOL.You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
972
FXUS64 KHGX 140840
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
Surface high pressure across the ncntl Gulf Coast and mid-upper
ridging currently centered along the Sabine will maintain a
stagnant, hot weather pattern. Heat Advisories will continue
today...and probably for several more days. Only difference with
today-Thursday`s wx compared to yesterday will be slightly lower
moisture levels...and hence lower overall rain chances/coverage. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
Imagine that you`re in a restaurant and you see a waiter/waitress
come out with a sizzling skillet of fajitas. You might think to
yourself "ohhh that smells REALLY good", but more importantly
"wow that plate must be REALLY hot!" Now imagine that on that
plate is actually Southeast TX, and that`s essentially our
forecast through next week...if only this heat came with a few
tortillas and guacamole on the side it just might make it more
tolerable. Mid-level high pressure (heat dome) remains the
dominant feature of the synoptic pattern into next week, and will
actually get a bit stronger over the weekend. As a result, we can
expect gradually increasing temperatures and gradually decreasing
rain chances as the mid-level high intensifies (500mb heights
increasing from 592-594 dam to 594-596 dam over the weekend) and a
more amplified ridge axis slides in over the weekend. We start
out with high temperatures mainly in the upper 90s with a few
spots reaching 100F on Friday, and we essentially add ~1F onto
that with each day. That means that by the weekend, we`ll be
looking at widespread triple digit temperatures across Southeast
TX. Portions of the Brazos Valley may see high temperatures around
103F late in the weekend into early next week, which would
warrant a Heat Advisory based on the air temperature alone!
Speaking of Heat Advisories, we can expect those to continue into
next week and there may be some potential for Excessive Heat
Warnings as well with heat indices flirting with the 113F mark.
That can be attributed to the abundance of low-level moisture
funneling in from the Gulf through onshore flow. Since we`re
talking about the moisture that`ll be in place (PW values
generally around 1.6-2.0"), let`s briefly talk about rain chances.
Initially, we`ll continue to have slight chances for isolated
showers/storms along the seabreeze into the early part of the
weekend, but those chances will be on a downward trend as
subsidence aloft increases due to the strengthening mid-level
high. Increased subsidence (sinking air) equals decreased rain
chances. Rain chances become slim to none on Sunday and that
carries into next week.
With heat indices [ 108F] and eventually temperatures [ 103F]
themselves around the Brazos Valley expected to warrant that AT
LEAST a Heat Advisory be in effect into next week, please continue
to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make
(especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses
(heat stroke/heat exhaustion), know the locations of the nearest
cooling centers, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities
during the hottest part of the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-
colored clothing, check in on those with vulnerabilities, and ALWAYS
ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about
your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your
hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe and stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
VFR condition will mostly prevail. Can`t rule out an isolated tstm
or two closer to the coast and maybe the metro area, but overall
chances appear too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
Benign marine conditions persist with light onshore winds and low
seas prevailing into next week. Winds may intermittently increase
to 10-15 knots overnight/early morning. Slim chances for isolated
showers/storms remain during the early morning to afternoon hours
going into the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 79 98 79 / 20 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 84 92 83 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 140840
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
Surface high pressure across the ncntl Gulf Coast and mid-upper
ridging currently centered along the Sabine will maintain a
stagnant, hot weather pattern. Heat Advisories will continue
today...and probably for several more days. Only difference with
today-Thursday`s wx compared to yesterday will be slightly lower
moisture levels...and hence lower overall rain chances/coverage. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
Imagine that you`re in a restaurant and you see a waiter/waitress
come out with a sizzling skillet of fajitas. You might think to
yourself "ohhh that smells REALLY good", but more importantly
"wow that plate must be REALLY hot!" Now imagine that on that
plate is actually Southeast TX, and that`s essentially our
forecast through next week...if only this heat came with a few
tortillas and guacamole on the side it just might make it more
tolerable. Mid-level high pressure (heat dome) remains the
dominant feature of the synoptic pattern into next week, and will
actually get a bit stronger over the weekend. As a result, we can
expect gradually increasing temperatures and gradually decreasing
rain chances as the mid-level high intensifies (500mb heights
increasing from 592-594 dam to 594-596 dam over the weekend) and a
more amplified ridge axis slides in over the weekend. We start
out with high temperatures mainly in the upper 90s with a few
spots reaching 100F on Friday, and we essentially add ~1F onto
that with each day. That means that by the weekend, we`ll be
looking at widespread triple digit temperatures across Southeast
TX. Portions of the Brazos Valley may see high temperatures around
103F late in the weekend into early next week, which would
warrant a Heat Advisory based on the air temperature alone!
Speaking of Heat Advisories, we can expect those to continue into
next week and there may be some potential for Excessive Heat
Warnings as well with heat indices flirting with the 113F mark.
That can be attributed to the abundance of low-level moisture
funneling in from the Gulf through onshore flow. Since we`re
talking about the moisture that`ll be in place (PW values
generally around 1.6-2.0"), let`s briefly talk about rain chances.
Initially, we`ll continue to have slight chances for isolated
showers/storms along the seabreeze into the early part of the
weekend, but those chances will be on a downward trend as
subsidence aloft increases due to the strengthening mid-level
high. Increased subsidence (sinking air) equals decreased rain
chances. Rain chances become slim to none on Sunday and that
carries into next week.
With heat indices [ 108F] and eventually temperatures [ 103F]
themselves around the Brazos Valley expected to warrant that AT
LEAST a Heat Advisory be in effect into next week, please continue
to keep heat safety at the forefront of any plans that you make
(especially if outdoors). Know the signs of heat related illnesses
(heat stroke/heat exhaustion), know the locations of the nearest
cooling centers, drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take
frequent breaks from the heat, avoid strenuous outdoor activities
during the hottest part of the day, wear sunscreen and loose/light-
colored clothing, check in on those with vulnerabilities, and ALWAYS
ALWAYS ALWAYS LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle. Don`t forget about
your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your
hand, then it is too hot for their paws. Stay safe and stay hydrated.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
VFR condition will mostly prevail. Can`t rule out an isolated tstm
or two closer to the coast and maybe the metro area, but overall
chances appear too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024
Benign marine conditions persist with light onshore winds and low
seas prevailing into next week. Winds may intermittently increase
to 10-15 knots overnight/early morning. Slim chances for isolated
showers/storms remain during the early morning to afternoon hours
going into the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 97 79 98 79 / 20 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 84 92 83 / 10 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
It’s hot outside. That is all. Carry on.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
A big loss in the Meteorology world..
Will McCarty
@NASAWxWill
I'm very sad to hear that Eugenia Kalnay has passed. Her list of accolades is huge - first female MIT Meteorolology Ph. D (advised by Charney) and ~35K citations for NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996) among them. I was lucky to have numerous interactions with her.
Will McCarty
@NASAWxWill
I'm very sad to hear that Eugenia Kalnay has passed. Her list of accolades is huge - first female MIT Meteorolology Ph. D (advised by Charney) and ~35K citations for NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (Kalnay et al. 1996) among them. I was lucky to have numerous interactions with her.
At least the DP is in the low 70s instead of mid to upper 70s. But that sun angle is getting lower.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6018
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
570
FXUS64 KHGX 150746
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Wx remains status quo. With ridging holding tough, Heat Advisories
will continue and rain chances will remain on the low side (and
mainly for southern parts of the CWA in association with
sea/baybreezes). 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
August will continue to August as the heat persists Saturday...and
the next day...and the next day...and the next day...and well...you
get the idea. We remain under the influence of mid to upper level
ridging that will actually get a bit stronger over the weekend with
the mid-level high intensifying around the TX panhandle and a more
amplified ridge axis sliding in from the west. As a result, we
can expect high temperatures to continue to top out in the upper
90s with some spots reaching 100F over the weekend (especially
Sunday and onward). Heat indices will remain solidly in the Heat
Advisory threshold [ 108F], but there continue to be hints for
the potential of Excessive Heat Warnings with heat indices
approaching the 113F threshold.
As far as rain chances go, those will remain on the slim side but
there is something worth talking about going into early next week. A
fairly elongated upper level trough dips down over the eastern
CONUS with its western extent down in the Mississippi River
Valley. The context for this is that it`ll send a frontal boundary
down into the southeastern CONUS (not to us). The placement of
this front could play a role in rain chances next week due to the
added source of lift once daytime heating gets going and the
potential for boundary interactions. Outside of isolated activity
along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours, a rogue
shower/storm drifting in from the northeast from this boundary may
be our only other shot at seeing some rainfall next week.
All that being said, ANY convection that attempts to develop will
have to fight through a subsidence inversion layer aloft...so rain
chances are no higher than 20%. That weak frontal boundary may be
close enough though to increase PW values over Southeast TX to
2.0-2.2" (90th percentile: ~2.17") on Monday/Tuesday, so at the
very least we could see an increase in humidity. That`s on top of
the expectation for Monday to be the hottest day of the forecast
period with widespread highs in the 100s with heat indices
flirting with the Excessive Heat Warning threshold. (_)
BONUS: Since you read through my novel, I have a bonus nugget for
you! On Saturday morning around 6:01 AM CDT, the International
Space Station will pass right over Space City! It`ll appear from
the southwestern horizon, pass over with a maximum height of 77
(directly overhead would be 90), then disappear into the
northeastern horizon. Skies will be mostly clear for viewing on
Saturday morning thanks to the abundance of subsidence, but a few
of you could be dealing with patchy fog hindering your visibility.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
VFR conditions will prevail. Coastal/metro areas aren`t immune to a
rogue isolated daytime tstm, but overall chances are quite slim.
47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Light winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend and into
next week. Winds may intermittently increase to 10-15 knots
during the overnight and early morning hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development remains possible along daily sea and
land breezes, as well as the slight chance of an isolated shower
or thunderstorm offshore during the predawn hours.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 77 99 78 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 98 79 98 80 / 20 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 83 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 150746
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Wx remains status quo. With ridging holding tough, Heat Advisories
will continue and rain chances will remain on the low side (and
mainly for southern parts of the CWA in association with
sea/baybreezes). 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
August will continue to August as the heat persists Saturday...and
the next day...and the next day...and the next day...and well...you
get the idea. We remain under the influence of mid to upper level
ridging that will actually get a bit stronger over the weekend with
the mid-level high intensifying around the TX panhandle and a more
amplified ridge axis sliding in from the west. As a result, we
can expect high temperatures to continue to top out in the upper
90s with some spots reaching 100F over the weekend (especially
Sunday and onward). Heat indices will remain solidly in the Heat
Advisory threshold [ 108F], but there continue to be hints for
the potential of Excessive Heat Warnings with heat indices
approaching the 113F threshold.
As far as rain chances go, those will remain on the slim side but
there is something worth talking about going into early next week. A
fairly elongated upper level trough dips down over the eastern
CONUS with its western extent down in the Mississippi River
Valley. The context for this is that it`ll send a frontal boundary
down into the southeastern CONUS (not to us). The placement of
this front could play a role in rain chances next week due to the
added source of lift once daytime heating gets going and the
potential for boundary interactions. Outside of isolated activity
along the sea breeze during the afternoon hours, a rogue
shower/storm drifting in from the northeast from this boundary may
be our only other shot at seeing some rainfall next week.
All that being said, ANY convection that attempts to develop will
have to fight through a subsidence inversion layer aloft...so rain
chances are no higher than 20%. That weak frontal boundary may be
close enough though to increase PW values over Southeast TX to
2.0-2.2" (90th percentile: ~2.17") on Monday/Tuesday, so at the
very least we could see an increase in humidity. That`s on top of
the expectation for Monday to be the hottest day of the forecast
period with widespread highs in the 100s with heat indices
flirting with the Excessive Heat Warning threshold. (_)
BONUS: Since you read through my novel, I have a bonus nugget for
you! On Saturday morning around 6:01 AM CDT, the International
Space Station will pass right over Space City! It`ll appear from
the southwestern horizon, pass over with a maximum height of 77
(directly overhead would be 90), then disappear into the
northeastern horizon. Skies will be mostly clear for viewing on
Saturday morning thanks to the abundance of subsidence, but a few
of you could be dealing with patchy fog hindering your visibility.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
VFR conditions will prevail. Coastal/metro areas aren`t immune to a
rogue isolated daytime tstm, but overall chances are quite slim.
47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024
Light winds and low seas will prevail through the weekend and into
next week. Winds may intermittently increase to 10-15 knots
during the overnight and early morning hours. Isolated
thunderstorm development remains possible along daily sea and
land breezes, as well as the slight chance of an isolated shower
or thunderstorm offshore during the predawn hours.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 77 99 78 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 98 79 98 80 / 20 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 83 / 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-438-439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 5357
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
GFS and CMC both have some energy moving in fron the eastern gulf, that could help to reintroduce rain chances here in about 5-7 days