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Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:07 pm**

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:01 pm The -AO and -NAO combo isn’t enough to give us anything really cold.

I thought that was key to getting us cold???

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:10 pm**

the EPO does look to go negative after the 12th, nothing too negative, but still should be sufficient enough, NAO and AO stay negative through at least mid january

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:33 pm**

So far a moat of nothing between 59 and 105. Points south of 59 and up north and northwest of here got an early start…still waiting around here.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:11 pm**

user:null wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 11:11 am
Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 9:37 amThe winter of 1930-1931 did not have freezing temperature. January 1930 had a low of 5°F. 1931 did not see freezing temperature. March 1932 had freezing temperatures and it snowed. 1931 and 2023 are years without freezing temperature recorded. Of course, data from the past should be taken with caution.
2023 was the first freeze-free calendar year at IAH (i.e. ever since opened for business in 1969). The official City of Houston records prior to that were taken at another site farther south (not sure if Downtown or Hobby airport, however).

Houston Weather Bureau Office was in Downtown Houston.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:11 pm**

Still a big gap off to the southwest - hope it fills in.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:12 pm**

Harp1 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:07 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:01 pm The -AO and -NAO combo isn’t enough to give us anything really cold.
I thought that was key to getting us cold???

-EPO is the king of getting cold down here. Need strong ridging over Alaska and the far NW Territories and for that ridge to extend north into the Beaufort Sea.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:13 pm**

Harp1 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:07 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:01 pm The -AO and -NAO combo isn’t enough to give us anything really cold.
I thought that was key to getting us cold???

Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) do give cold air.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:13 pm**

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:11 pm Still a big gap off to the southwest - hope it fills in.

It’s been raining off and on down here now for the past 3 hours.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:13 pm**

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:12 pm
Harp1 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:07 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:01 pm The -AO and -NAO combo isn’t enough to give us anything really cold.
I thought that was key to getting us cold???
-EPO is the king of getting cold down here. Need strong ridging over Alaska and the far NW Territories and for that ridge to extend north into the Beaufort Sea.

So very true about the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). I have seen many cold blasts due to negative EPO.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:33 pm**

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:13 pm
Harp1 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:07 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 8:01 pm The -AO and -NAO combo isn’t enough to give us anything really cold.
I thought that was key to getting us cold???
Negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) do give cold air.

Yep. We don't need Ice Station Zebra cold to get snow or ice.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:35 pm**

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:13 pm
jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:11 pm Still a big gap off to the southwest - hope it fills in.
It’s been raining off and on down here now for the past 3 hours.

Some pretty decent bands up here in the NW territories. 0.80 inches of rain and rising IMFY.

I see a Thomas Tank the train engine...

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:36 pm**

Storm #1 is here.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 9:47 pm**

I completely forgot about this system to be honest, but got some good heavy rain, just keep it moving so that flooding risks stay low

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:34 pm**

You can see the surface low forming offshore Matagorda Bay, which is helping to enhance rainfall rates at the moment. No flooding expected though as this system is progressive. And rainfall rates are below flash flood criteria.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:58 pm**

GFS and CMC coming in much colder, much stronger blocking signature

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:01 pm**

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 10:58 pm GFS and CMC coming in much colder, much stronger blocking signature

Well, finally huh?

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:04 pm**

Finally some steady rain here but only 0.24" so far. That dry wedge to the SW just doesn't want to completely fill-in.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:24 pm**

FWIW the ICON digs Mondays storm way south. That's one heck of a storm.

Posted: **Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:46 pm**

Monday might get kind of wild.

Posted: **Wed Jan 03, 2024 12:25 am**

jasons2k wrote: ↑Tue Jan 02, 2024 11:04 pm Finally some steady rain here but only 0.24" so far. That dry wedge to the SW just doesn't want to completely fill-in.

1.20” here. Definitely a nice surprise.

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