2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

[sambucol]

Those temps are very concerning.

[don]

The middle part of August is beginning to look a bit interesting.

Yep,FWIW the GFS is starting to show a pattern towards the middle of August that would theoretically allow a storm into the western gulf if something were to move into the gulf.With a weakness over the state and a ridge of high pressure to our east.Not that im buying it yet just something to note.

gfs_z500a_us_44.png

[sambucol]

I’m hoping nothing enters the GOM until my flood insurance goes into effect on August 20!

[Stratton20]

the atlantic is being dominated by sinking air due to some suppressed kelvin wave passages, but It looks like some time after the 6th-7th of august a more favorable passage of the MJO may make its way into the atlantic, that could allow for things to pick up a bit
Bottom image is week 2 forecast ( Aug 6th-12th)
12z GEFS generally agrees after the 10th things could start to pick up , notice the rising air starting to move into the basin, makes sense after a favorable mjo passage

[Cpv17]

The steering pattern that could possibly be setting up towards the second week of August could be bad for the western Gulf if there’s a storm around. Lots of blocking along the EC. We’ll see if the models are right about it. Still a long ways off.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yep that position of the high would definitely open the door here, atlantic becomes more favorable for development after the 10th, we shall see

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yep that position of the high would definitely open the door here, atlantic becomes more favorable for development after the 10th, we shall see

Yeah, I just looked at the 0z EPS and 12z GEFS and both models are in agreement about the placement of the ridging along the EC around the same timeframe.

[Cpv17]

The 12z EPS is beginning to show signs of activity during the second week of August and even shows a few members headed towards the western Gulf.

[Stratton20]

Yep, after the 10th the GEFS shows upward rising air taking hold in the atlantic/ gom, things could get active

[Stratton20]

The 00z GFS, despite being in fantasy land , its showing what could happen in the pattern down the road, ensembles have blocking/ high pressure setting up in the eastern US, that could allow or open the door to tropical mischief finding its way into the gulf and particularly the western gulf, the run doesnt mean much other than showing * potential * with that kind of blocking pattern

[DoctorMu]

After Aug 15 the Gulf will be open for business.

[Cpv17]

Although it’s not a strong signal yet, both the GEFS & EPS are showing activity in the Gulf beginning late next week into the following week.

[DoctorMu]

06z GFS offers up a Louisiana hurricane.

[Stratton20]

12z GEFS has a stronger signal for the western gulf fwiw

[Cpv17]

06z GFS offers up a Louisiana hurricane.

This far out, I don’t even pay attention to operationals.

[DoctorMu]

06z GFS offers up a Louisiana hurricane.

This far out, I don’t even pay attention to operationals.

It's GFS, so obviously for entertainment only.

GFS ALWAYS has a TS brewing late in the forecast this time of year.

[Cpv17]

06z GFS offers up a Louisiana hurricane.

This far out, I don’t even pay attention to operationals.

It's GFS, so obviously for entertainment only.

GFS ALWAYS has a TS brewing late in the forecast this time of year.

I can say pretty confidently that there will be something in the Gulf sometime between the 12th-17th. As to where in the Gulf is anyone’s guess right now. New hurricane forecast put out by the UKMET went kinda bonkers (19,9,6), with an ACE of 215. But I’ll put my confidence level at 75% right now that there will be something in the Gulf during that timeframe. I definitely think it’s worth keeping an eye on.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I agree, definitely looks like the tine frame to watch for sure, especially with the ensembles showing a ridge placement that would tend to steer a system towards the western gom

[Stratton20]

The CMC and its ensembles and even the EPS are getting interesting, and it make sense that they are, favorable pulse of rising air overspreads the western atlantic after the 10-11th ish, definitely should allow for a more favorable environment for something to happen

[captainbarbossa19]

The CMC and its ensembles and even the EPS are getting interesting, and it make sense that they are, favorable pulse of rising air overspreads the western atlantic after the 10-11th ish, definitely should allow for a more favorable environment for something to happen

And the ridge over Texas moves to Arizona/Cali in about 7 days, while a strong Bermuda ridge develops to our east. Wind shear doesn't look that bad right now either. I also saw an interesting stat on s2k that shows that every time Boston has had a record wet July, the US gets hit by a significant hurricane later in the season. The last time this happened was in 2021 with Ida. It also happened in 1915 and we know that wasn't a good year for our area!