July 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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It's raining pretty good here, nice temp drop.
davidiowx
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Nice surge of moisture heading towards the coast. Hope it brings us some decent rains today/tomorrow!
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don
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 12:45 pm Nice big blob of convection in the Western Gulf Of mexico, if conditions were favorable id definitely be watching this more closely for development, though hope it moves north to give us an even better shot for rain
That blob is the same system the GFS was developing last week.Of course like we figured it ended up being just a moisture surge/wave instead of a TC.It will be moving inland tomorrow.
user:null
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user:null wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 2:59 pmbecause this otherwise looks to be another failed day if nothing happens between now and say 5/6PM
Spoke too soon: lots of activity a bit earlier all over central Houston and nearby locales (including some good rounds of showers at my home, more than where I was earlier at work).
user:null
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That being said, there's really been a strange dearth of activity along the southern/coastal regions. Places like Lake Jackson, Santa Fe, Houston@Hobby airport, etc have been missing out. The NWS discussions/keeps mentioning sea-breeze as factor, but if that was truly the case, then the areas mentioned above should be dominating every summer rainfall event.
Last edited by user:null on Wed Jul 05, 2023 5:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cromagnum
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Question of the day is how far onshore all that gulf moisture is going to make it before it burns off.
user:null
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 5:14 pm Question of the day is how far onshore all that gulf moisture is going to make it before it burns off.
😶 maybe I spoke too soon again...
suprdav2
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Still not a drop at my casa.......dark skies all around and hearing rumbles of thunder, but all moving away.
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djmike
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Is that moisture in the gulf our rain maker for tomorrow? Almost looks tropical. Storms exploded just north side of the blob. Was expecting that to fizzle out as the day progressed. But it’s keeping it momentum!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Cromagnum
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Lots of wind blowing from the south now.
user:null
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djmike wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 6:26 pm Is that moisture in the gulf our rain maker for tomorrow? Almost looks tropical. Storms exploded just north side of the blob. Was expecting that to fizzle out as the day progressed. But it’s keeping it momentum!
Hopefully. I think this was what the models showed earlier, regarding the tropical cyclone hitting Texas/Louisiana. Better to save it for tomorrow, rather than send flimsy stuff now that "works the atmosphere over" and kills the chances completely.
Cromagnum
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Much ado about nothing this evening. Everything from the gulf is fizzling away.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:39 pm Much ado about nothing this evening. Everything from the gulf is fizzling away.
Diurnal minimum. Diurnal maximum should come in the morning.
Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 9:07 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:39 pm Much ado about nothing this evening. Everything from the gulf is fizzling away.
Diurnal minimum. Diurnal maximum should come in the morning.
I thought DMax was in the evening?
user:null
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It's the same s*** every year: Louisiana soaks, while Texas next door misses out.

That said, the surge seems like it will penetrate Texas as the hours go on: so it looks like Thursday (lingering into Friday) will be our turn.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 9:45 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 9:07 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 05, 2023 8:39 pm Much ado about nothing this evening. Everything from the gulf is fizzling away.
Diurnal minimum. Diurnal maximum should come in the morning.
I thought DMax was in the evening?
Usually during the daylight hours tropical systems fail to spark off much convection and convection starts to usually pick up overnight and can persist into the morning hours.
Cromagnum
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Sure would be nice if that blob in Victoria would move this way.
user:null
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NWS still calling for widespread 1-2inches of rain for the HOU area. And WPC has marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Both as of this morning...
user:null
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So far, heaviest rains across Texas from this thing have been in South Texas, in places like McAllen, Brownsville, to around Corpus/Victoria/Palacios. Yet, the totals (so far) are no more than maybe .30 inches?

This thing better be the real deal...
Cromagnum
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I hope its not a bust, but it sure looks like it.

Some parts of the area to the west got some. Coastal counties aren't going to get a thing based on what radar is showing.
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