Remnants of Matthew Inland Over Southern Mexico

[srainhoutx]

95L is born...

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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2010, DB, O, 2010092112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952010
AL, 95, 2010092012, , BEST, 0, 118N, 580W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092018, , BEST, 0, 119N, 592W, 15, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 604W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092106, , BEST, 0, 121N, 616W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2010092112, , BEST, 0, 122N, 628W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

433 
WHXX01 KWBC 211307
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1307 UTC TUE SEP 21 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100921 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100921  1200   100922  0000   100922  1200   100923  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.2N  62.8W   12.7N  65.1W   13.0N  67.7W   13.5N  70.4W
BAMD    12.2N  62.8W   12.5N  64.8W   12.7N  67.1W   12.9N  69.4W
BAMM    12.2N  62.8W   12.5N  64.9W   12.9N  67.4W   13.2N  69.8W
LBAR    12.2N  62.8W   12.8N  65.2W   13.4N  67.7W   13.8N  70.4W
SHIP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          49KTS
DSHP        20KTS          26KTS          34KTS          49KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100923  1200   100924  1200   100925  1200   100926  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.6N  73.3W   14.4N  78.8W   15.7N  84.1W   17.0N  87.8W
BAMD    13.0N  71.9W   13.6N  77.1W   15.3N  82.3W   17.6N  86.5W
BAMM    13.5N  72.5W   14.3N  78.0W   15.8N  83.7W   17.3N  88.2W
LBAR    14.2N  73.5W   14.9N  80.0W   13.9N  85.6W   15.0N  87.8W
SHIP        66KTS          92KTS         109KTS         120KTS
DSHP        66KTS          92KTS         109KTS         120KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.2N LONCUR =  62.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  12.0N LONM12 =  60.4W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  58.0W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

[srainhoutx]

Up on Navy site...

[Andrew]

The Canadian and Euro aren't that far apart. This could be a bad one for the NGOM. Florida Big Bend is fortunate a slower moving storm wouldn't have boatloads of TCHP.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 0263go.jpg

Yea it is bad Ed for Florida with some agreement taking place but with how long range the models are and the fact that both models have different reasons why it goes NE, I think it is still up in the air. Plus gfs shows a trof making it to the yucatan peninsula.

I personally believe that it will be key to how strong this trof is. Will it pick it up and send it ne or will it just create a weakness and send it northwest?

[Scott747]

95l has plenty of eventual long term movement scenarios and much more than the typical system offers. It's obvious that the short-term thinking is a movement towards the YP/CA and then being lifted towards the EGOM and leans heavily on what the modeling is showing. Comes down to how deep the modeled trough is and where 95l is.

Plus the interaction with the YP/CA is key. I think the reason that some of the models are showing this massive storm (size wise, not strength) is the interaction.

[srainhoutx]

I agree regarding the potential size, Scott. The gyre of low pressure suggested in the general area of CA/YP as well as EPAC connection certainly may have some significant impact on what the future holds for 95L, size wise. Interesting days ahead, that is for sure. The early intensity, although likely a bit too high does raise an eyebrow.

[Scott747]

I agree regarding the potential size, Scott. The gyre of low pressure suggested in the general area of CA/YP as well as EPAC connection certainly may have some significant impact on what the future holds for 95L, size wise. Interesting days ahead, that is for sure. The early intensity, although likely a bit too high does raise an eyebrow.

Well the intensity guidance isn't to surprising and expected with the heading/direction.

Everyone will probably want to use Mitch as some type of analogy but a better one would be Keith if it were to stall/miss the connection.

[srainhoutx]

As I stated yesterday on easterwx while interacting with Jorge, that stalling and missing the connection is a worrisome pattern and one of the scenarios that may well play out. As you stated, there are several possible scenarios at play and we are a while from knowing which 'camp' or 'camps' will be the correct one in regards to longer track of 95L.

[biggerbyte]

Okay! Now we have the system. Big question is, where does it go. In no way is that clear cut just yet. All Gulf residents should pay attention, especially nw to ne areas, simply due to all of the troughy conditions we've had this year. Hmm! Is troughy a word??? Lol

Newbies, an iWatch is in order. Again...

Ps

interesting to note that, if this system does not get pulled northward, it could just continue westward, never do much, and just die over land.

[Paul]

ECM and GFS have come to an agreement for now on the cut off low......95L wont be getting this far west with that set-up....

[Andrew]

ECM and GFS have come to an agreement for now on the cut off low......95L wont be getting this far west with that set-up....

Too early to be 100% sure of that, but since the only October storm of any significance the last 61 years came up out of the Pacific, I think the odds are generally in our favor this late in the season.


Just a tuch over 2 months to winter weather miracle season here. It can happen December 5th, maybe it can happen even earlier this year.

Amen to that

[srainhoutx]

Again as like with Karl, there may well be numerous research missions scheduled for 95L...

NOUS42 KNHC 211600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 21 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-113

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA -- CARRIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 22/1800Z A. 23/0600-1200Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
C. 22/1700Z C. 23/0400Z
D. 12.5N 68.5W D. 12.6N 71.0W
E. 22/1730-2300Z E. 23/0500-1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 15,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.

3. REMARKS:
A.THE NCAR G-V MAY FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE
SAME AREA TOMORROW MORNING 41,000 AND 45,000 FT.
. B. NASA DC-8 MAY ALSO FLY THIS AREA DEPARTING AT 22/1600Z.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS @ hour 138 (850 vort chart)...

[srainhoutx]

Hour 156...

[srainhoutx]

Hour 180...

[srainhoutx]

At hour 228, picked up by the trough and heading NE...FL Straits...

[Andrew]

At hour 228, picked up by the trough and heading NE...FL Straits...

That run is very weird. It sits in the carribean then moves here and there only to finally move NE. Hmmm

[biggerbyte]

So, what's your personal feeling on this one, srain?

[srainhoutx]

My personal feeling is this is going to be a long week and a half.

[srainhoutx]

Up to 50% now...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND MOST
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. NEARBY SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH DATA FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION
AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THIS SYSTEM...INDICATE
THE CIRCULATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. A
WIND GUST TO 48 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON THE ISLAND OF ST. LUCIA
DURING A HEAVY SQUALL. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
AND GRADUALLY SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...AND
OVER THE NORTHERN COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA ON WEDNESDAY.