Wx Infinity Forums

Some 'hints' of consolidation this evening near 16N/69W. We will see what the overnight brings regarding convection...

00z NAM:

I think 92L will likely become Karl since 93L has a better chance at development as Julia.

GFS doesn't do much with it, but does keep the gulf unstable:

Although this system is a bit more "perky" than Gaston, it too looks to never get into the sections of the Caribbean that would favor development. Instead, it looks to stay south. We'll see how things go as it gets over Gulf waters maybe chasing Alex. Since we had Hermine down there stirring things up just a few days ago, I'm wondering how that might take some of the potential out of this system? Does this even get that far? Does the massive ridge change configuration if this survives into the Gulf? These are some things to think about as the week progresses.

biggerbyte wrote:Although this system is a bit more "perky" than Gaston, it too looks to never get into the sections of the Caribbean that would favor development. Instead, it looks to stay south. We'll see how things go as it gets over Gulf waters maybe chasing Alex. Since we had Hermine down there stirring things up just a few days ago, I'm wondering how that might take some of the potential out of this system? Does this even get that far? Does the massive ridge change configuration if this survives into the Gulf? These are some things to think about as the week progresses.

I don't think Hermine did much to the water temps as it stayed pretty weak, but as of now 92L doesn't look good. If convection can maintain for a day or two things could really get going.

Euro:

Down to 50% this morning...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.



HGX thoughts this morning...

ECMWF STILL AND NAM NOW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERN GULF
ARRIVING ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE YUCATAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS STILL A WEAKER SOLUTION ALONG THE SAME
LINES AND TIMING. ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE GFS HAS
PUSHED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF.
STAY TUNED.



Austin/San Antonio...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF REACHING THE
NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS TEXAS MAY ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM BEARS
WATCHING.

Well, isn't that special? This situation would be amplified even more had this system grown to the monster it might have over the western carribean. Now the question is, what will it do over the southern gulf? If it begins to strengthen significantly, and/or feel a tug northward, it could stall or slow down. Cliche time again...

PREDICT Weather Discussion
Date(UTC): 2010/09/11 14:00
Author: BOSART/GALARNEAU
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/09/12 11:22

DAY 2 (24 - 48 hours) Outlook:

PGI44l: The pouch analysis from the 0000 UTC 11 Sep ECMWF 60-h
forecast verifying 1200 UTC 13 Sep indicates that PGI44L will be
located near 16.5 N and 74.5 W (image). Approximately 40%, 65%
and 80% of the 96 members of Ryan Torn’s WRF ensemble produce
sustained 35 kt winds (TC status) in the 30-h, 36-h, and 42-h
forecasts verifying 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC 12 Sep (image 16).
Forecast position uncertainty is greater in longitude (~5 deg)
than in latitude (~2 deg) at these times and the ensemble WRF
track is farther south than the consensus track of the ECMWF,
GFS, and UKMET models and the track of the forecast pouch based
on the operational ECMWF model. Another unknown forecast issue
is to what extent PGI44l as it continues to develop and move
slowly west-northwestward will interact with the Hispaniola
landmass and what the potential impact of this storm-land
interaction will be on the expected intensification of the
storm.

Extended Outlook:

PGI44L: The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models all continue to move
PGI44L westward with varying intensities and propagation speeds.
The ECMWF 120 h forecast verifying 0000 UTC 16 Sep brings PGI44L
to near 19.0 N and 86.0 W from the previously discussed pouch
tracks (not shown) and subsequently brings the storm onshore
over the Yucatan peninsula in the following 24 h. The GFS
forecast initiated at 0000 UTC 10 Sep dissipates PGI44L after
1800 UTC 15 Sep near 17.5 N and 84.5 W (not shown). The UKMET
forecast from 0000 11 Sep places PGI44L near 18.5 N and 84.5 W
at 120 h (not shown). Only the ECMWF forecast from 0000 UTC 11
Sep intensifies PGI44L into a TC. Almost 100% of the 96 members
of Ryan Torn’s 96 member ensemble have PGI44L as a TC in the
72 h forecast verifying 0000 UTC 14 Sep (image 18). The SHIPS
model slowly and steadily intensifies PGI44L into a major
hurricane by 120 h under very favorable environmental conditions
of low shear, high SSTs, and significant ocean heat content (not
shown)

If only the convection could continue:

As mentioned yesterday, we are watching these gains in latitude. Something to pay attention to as this heads westward looking for an escape route. We'll have to watch for this suggested weakness over Texas, as well as the potential for strengthening. Folks in northern Mexico, up through Texas should watch for changes in the forecast.

Microwave pass is showing some signs of development possibly beginning. We shall see...

Interesting!!!

AF RECON is a GO for today and another full schedule tomorrow as well...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 121645
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT SUN 12 SEPTEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-104

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 13/1330Z
D. 16.0N 77.0W
E. 13/1730Z TO 13/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 14/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0213A CYCLONE
C. 14/0100Z
D. 17.5N 80.0W
E. 14/0530Z TO 14/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: SEVERAL RESEARCH FLIGHTS ARE PLANNED
FOR THE CARIBBEAN SUSPECT AREA.
A. THE NSF/NCAR G-V WILL FLY A 7 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 43,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 13/1000Z.
B. THE NOAA G-IV WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
41,000 AND 45,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 13/1730Z.
C. THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8 HR MISSION BETWEEN
35,000 AND 39,000 FT WITH TAKEOFF AT 13/1900Z.
D. NOAA 43 AND 42 P-3 AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE A SERIES
OF MISSIONS BETWEEN 7,000 AND 12,000 FT WITH
TAKEOFFS AT 13/2000Z AND 14/0800Z...RESPECTIVELY.
E. AIR FORCE MISSIONS FOR 12/1800Z AND 13/0600

The Canadian model suggests a weak disturbance crossing the NW Caribbean grazing the Yucatan and on into the Gulf into Lower/Middle TX Coast.

srainhoutx wrote:The Canadian model suggests a weak disturbance crossing the NW Caribbean grazing the Yucatan and on into the Gulf into Lower/Middle TX Coast.

That is a different path then showed before... Hmm things to come?

BTW 12z NAM shows far south result but has been doing a terrible job with intensity so far:




GFS shows bottom of Yucatan:

That potential is there. This ridge with its current configuration looks like it could be short lived, opening up Texas again.

12 ECM