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Re: July 2022

Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2022 7:37 pm
by Stratton20
Cpv17 they must be going with the operational GFS, it has been showing a potential change to a “wetter”pattern next week, figners crossed🤞🤞🤞

Re: July 2022

Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:26 pm
by DoctorMu
jasons2k wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:52 pm All of the Phoenix dactylifera at Portofino in Shenandoah got completely decimated last year. Every single one - gone. The mexican fan palms were hit or miss, but most up here lived. Queens were wiped out. Pindos and mule palms did fine. Most canaries are fine but a small few of them got knocked out - probably the sickly ones.

Surprisingly, it was about the same up here as it was down into south Houston. It was that wind that evened it out.
I can't even grow gardenias, azaleas up here in CLL

Re: July 2022

Posted: Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:37 pm
by user:null
I agree with Stratton. The 18z GFS run is the best so far today. Relief could come as soon as this Wednesday/Thursday with a subtle inverted trough, for those that are lucky. Otherwise, the next week looks promising on that run, with another tropical influx, followed by what seems to be a backdooring front.

The silver-lining is that, as bad as heat is, it doesn't cause near as much damage to vegetation/ecosystems as freezing weather does. In fact, nothing happens provided that there is ample water supply — and even with hot, rainless summers, you still have the loads of crops seen in California's Central Valley.

Now contrast that with 2021 type freeze, where the entire landscape goes brown with damage just from the few days of cold. Even native live oaks were killed in North Texas, their trunks literally cracked and split. Even the light 30-32°F morning lows is enough to brown everything with dormancy, let alone the major events.

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:01 am
by jasons2k
user:null wrote: Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:37 pm I agree with Stratton. The 18z GFS run is the best so far today. Relief could come as soon as this Wednesday/Thursday with a subtle inverted trough, for those that are lucky. Otherwise, the next week looks promising on that run, with another tropical influx, followed by what seems to be a backdooring front.

The silver-lining is that, as bad as heat is, it doesn't cause near as much damage to vegetation/ecosystems as freezing weather does. In fact, nothing happens provided that there is ample water supply — and even with hot, rainless summers, you still have the loads of crops seen in California's Central Valley.

Now contrast that with 2021 type freeze, where the entire landscape goes brown with damage just from the few days of cold. Even native live oaks were killed in North Texas, their trunks literally cracked and split. Even the light 30-32°F morning lows is enough to brown everything with dormancy, let alone the major events.
Different story for the residents of Bastrop who lost everything in 2011.

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:23 am
by don
Yep there were wild fires galore that year, the pine forest around Bastrop was nearly completely burn downed.Even portions of Montgomery county had some wild fires that destroyed some of the pine forest.

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 9:28 am
by jasons2k
Today’s incoming shortwave looks good. Fingers crossed.

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:13 am
by javakah
Sure feels like every day there's scattered showers in western Louisiana just sitting there taunting us.

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:13 am
by jasons2k
TWC app keeps going up.
Yesterday it showed 30% for today
This morning it showed 40%
About an hour ago up to 50%
Now it shows 70% this afternoon
We’ll see….

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:54 am
by Stratton20
All models are now on board that the ridge will back off to the west and allow a back door front to move in next week and stall out, leading to daily appreciable rain chances! Looks like a pattern change is coming!

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:58 am
by cperk
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:54 am All models are now on board that the ridge will back off to the west and allow a back door front to move in next week and stall out, leading to daily appreciable rain chances! Looks like a pattern change is coming!
I'm not falling for it,i'll believe it when i see it falling from the sky. :)

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:04 pm
by Stratton20
cperk all 3 major models are on board lol, no guarantee you will get anything, but at least it looks like you might have a better chance of getting some needed rain next week, but I feel ya, their seems to be a shield across CS keeping all the rain away from us, it sucks lol

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:11 pm
by don
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:54 am All models are now on board that the ridge will back off to the west and allow a back door front to move in next week and stall out, leading to daily appreciable rain chances! Looks like a pattern change is coming!
I'm rooting for the GFS, please be right. LOL The GFS has been looking very nice in the long range lets hope the trend continues.

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:41 pm
by djmike
‘Bout to drop the bottom out in Beaumont.
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Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 12:53 pm
by jasons2k
cperk wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:58 am
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:54 am All models are now on board that the ridge will back off to the west and allow a back door front to move in next week and stall out, leading to daily appreciable rain chances! Looks like a pattern change is coming!
I'm not falling for it,i'll believe it when i see it falling from the sky. :)
Same here. TWC peaked with 80% chance of rain today and now back to 70%. Downhill from here. I’ll believe I’ll get rain when my front yard is wet!!

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 1:24 pm
by Dls2010r
Amen!

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:12 pm
by suprdav2
Bright and sunny out here in Cypress. And apparently HOA already sending out letters to people telling them to re-sod their yards. 🤦‍♂️

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:20 pm
by jasons2k
suprdav2 wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:12 pm Bright and sunny out here in Cypress. And apparently HOA already sending out letters to people telling them to re-sod their yards. 🤦‍♂️
Even if the grass is brown it is dormant and will come back with regular moisture. We just need to break this cycle.

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:33 pm
by TexasBreeze
New grass isn't going to grow well with a hot ongoing drought. They act like people have money to throw for new lawns, but that is a issue for another time I guess!

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:42 pm
by Cromagnum
TexasBreeze wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:33 pm New grass isn't going to grow well with a hot ongoing drought. They act like people have money to throw for new lawns, but that is a issue for another time I guess!
Yeah...I would be pressing that issue with the HOA. Every home I've seen that has re-sodded, the new grass looks worse than lawns that were left intact.

Re: July 2022

Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:48 pm
by captainbarbossa19
Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:42 pm
TexasBreeze wrote: Wed Jul 06, 2022 2:33 pm New grass isn't going to grow well with a hot ongoing drought. They act like people have money to throw for new lawns, but that is a issue for another time I guess!
Yeah...I would be pressing that issue with the HOA. Every home I've seen that has re-sodded, the new grass looks worse than lawns that were left intact.
You could also have an HOA like me that charges you and does nothing. They also are having their first meeting next week since 2019. It's not even a physical meeting.