...and the heat goes on...
https://youtu.be/bS3O5zg290k
Some good news. It appears after today (heat index of 106°F+) that the dewpoint will moderate and we will stay in the mid 90s instead of upper 90s. Unfortunately, less of a breeze. Also, there is potential for the ridge to break down this weekend and a SW may pay us a visit. GFS is picking this up...and the Canadian, sees it as a front dragging behind a Midwest low. Then, next week, as predicted, the ridge rebuilds.
I made the executive decision to walk the dog after dark. She's a Labrador, so I don't want her to overheat with the jog back home (me too!). I'm back on a "European" schedule. Eating later, staying up later. lol
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022
.AVIATION...
Current MVFR ceilings becoming VFR as the morning progresses. Most
sites should be VFR this afternoon, but an MVFR deck might linger
near/along the coast. MVFR ceilings return to the area this evening
and persist into Tuesday morning. Winds will be gusty from the SSE
to SE today (generally 10 to 15 knots gusting up to 25 knots) then
back down to around 10 knots tonight. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM CDT Mon May 9 2022/
SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
We are starting the week with very warm overnight low temperatures
with current readings in the mid to upper 70s inland to around 80 at
the coast under partly to mostly cloudy skies and south to southeast
winds generally around 10 mph and occasionally gusty. Skies will
gradually become partly cloudy to mostly sunny once again today with
above normal highs anticipated to reach the low to mid 90s inland
and mid to upper 80s at the coast. With dew points staying up once
again, heat index values should end up in the low 100s. Skies should
cloud up again tonight and on into early Tuesday morning, and inland
lows might end up a little cooler under slightly weaker winds (low
to mid 70s instead of mid to upper 70s). If these lows pan out,
Tuesday`s inland highs could end up a degree or two cooler than
Monday but still in a low to mid 90s range under partly cloudy to
mostly sunny skies. Anticipating Tuesday night`s inland lows to be
in a more comfortable range of upper 60s to around 70 north to lower
70s south with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy.
Once again, even though there is no Heat Advisory in effect, all
heat safety precautions should continue to be taken.
42
LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
The heat goes on...with mid to upper level ridging continuing to
prevail, there won`t be much relief from the hot temperatures.
Afternoon temperatures continue to reach the low to mid 90s through
the end of the week. However, there looks to be some overnight
relief from having low temperatures in the mid 70s though!
Surface high pressure moves overhead by late Wednesday and
prevails through at least part of Friday. This briefly disrupts
the steady flow of moisture funneling in from the Gulf, so we`ll
see a slight decrease in dew points along with lighter winds.
Additionally, subsidence from the high pressure overhead will keep
the typical overnight cloud cover from developing. Other than
more favorable conditions for stargazing (there`s quite a few ISS
flyovers after midweek), this also leads to slightly cooler
overnight temperatures. For Wednesday night and Thursday night,
we`ll trade out temperatures in the mid 70s for temperatures in
the upper 60s/low 70s.
We are still looking towards the weekend for our next chance of
rain.
Ridging aloft weakens as an upper-level low retrogrades
from the western Atlantic towards the southeastern CONUS and an
upper-level trough moves across the Northern Plains. With the
ridge breaking down, an embedded shortwave trough will be able to
make its way into Southeast TX late Saturday. PW values
consequently surge to 1.5"-1.7", which is the exact range of the
75th and 90th percentiles for this time of year...so we`ll be fairly
saturated. Since this is the 3rd night in a row that I`ve seen
this setup, I`ve increased the PoPs to 20% for late Saturday.
Another round of ridging is in store for us early next week, so
get used to having daily high temperatures in the 90s. NAEFS
indicates that we`ll continue to be in at least the 90th
percentile for temperatures for...*checks notes*...forever?!
Well at least through the middle of next week.
With hot temperatures persisting, I`ll go ahead and recycle my
heat safety paragraph from my previous discussions... Be sure to
continue to practice heat safety during this extended period of
hot temperatures: drink plenty of water, take breaks/find shade if
you`re spending any time outdoors, limit strenuous outdoor
activities during the hottest part of the day, and ALWAYS ALWAYS
ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. P.S. If the ground is
too hot for the palm of your hand, then it`s too hot for paws.
Batiste
MARINE...
Moderate onshore flow and elevated seas will continue to prevail
into midweek. Caution flags will likely be needed through Tuesday
night. The elevated winds have led to a subsequent rise in seas up
to 4-5 feet today and 5-6 feet by late tonight. This extended period
of moderate onshore flow will increase the risk of rip currents
along Gulf-facing beaches through midweek. Be sure to take extra
precautions if you have any plans for a beach day during this
period. Winds and seas subside after midweek as surface high
pressure moves in.
Batiste
AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...
A broken cloud deck around 1500-2000ft has begun to develop across
the area spreading from the south to the north. These MVFR
conditions will continue through the night before scattering out
from north to south through the morning. Elevated wind speeds
through the night will keep fog from forming. Expect
south-southeasterly winds around 10 to 15kts through Monday with
gusts to 25kts possible in the afternoon hours. MVFR CIGs return
tonight starting around midnight south of I-10, then across the
area by the late night period.
Fowler
CLIMATE...
How warm of a start has May been so far? For May 1-8...
CLL`s average temperature of 80.8 degrees is 7.7 degrees above
normal and ranks as their warmest May 1-8 on record (dating back to
1889). Their 2nd warmest May 1-8 is 80.6 degrees in 2002.
IAH`s average temperature of 80.4 degrees is 6.1 degrees above
normal and ranks as their 3rd warmest May 1-8 on record (dating back
to 1889). Their warmest May 1-8 is 82.6 degrees in 2002.
HOU`s average temperature of 81.3 degrees is 6.6 degrees above
normal and ranks as 2nd warmest May 1-8 on record (dating back to
1931). Their warmest May 1-8 is 82.3 degrees in 2002.
GLS`s average temperature of 82.1 degrees is 6.6 degrees above
normal and ranks as their warmest May 1-8 on record (dating back to
1875). Their 2nd warmest May 1-8 is 80.8 degrees in 2002.
Today`s and Tuesday`s record highs/year and record high mins/year
are...
CLL: Mon - record high 99/2011 and record high min 76/2021
Tue - record high 97/2011 and record high min 77/1905
IAH: Mon - record high 94/2011 and record high min 77/2021
Tue - record high 94/1927 and record high min 77/2015
HOU: Mon - record high 97/1998 and record high min 78/2021
Tue - record high 91/2003 and record high min 78/2021
GLS: Mon - record high 88/2002 and record high min 78/2002
Tue - record high 87/1998 and record high min 78/2021
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 74 95 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 94 75 93 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 86 78 87 77 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
