April 2022

[Cpv17]

The GFS looks good for late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Would love for that to verify.

[DoctorMu]

S30 G43 the wind is no joke pumping in humid air. Welcome to Texas!

Only 30-40% change of rain Tue/Wed now for CLL

Anticipating a bust. Sprinkler people haven't shown up and gras, plants, trees are starting to desiccate.

[Cpv17]

S30 G43 the wind is no joke pumping in humid air. Welcome to Texas!

Only 30-40% change of rain Tue/Wed now for CLL

Anticipating a bust. Sprinkler people haven't shown up and gras, plants, trees are starting to desiccate.

GFS looks decent but the Euro is crickets. Probably going to have to side with the Euro on this unfortunately. Looks like the drought is about to really get going.

I hope I’m wrong but I’m starting to get the feeling we might not get any drought relief till a tropical system comes along this summer. That is if one actually comes this way or not.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 im siding with the GFS, I do see this dry pattern breaking around the tuesday-wednesday timeframe, NWS has upped chances of rain here in CS to 40/50% so they are more or less going with the GFS solution, maybe a little less bullish though

[DoctorMu]

It looks like a hot week for mid April. I hate to drag the damn hose all over the place. The S30 G45 blew down part of the back fence. Good thing it's being repaired Tuesday. I'm getting tired of Gulf air already, if it's not going to rain.

Edit: the wind peaked at S32 G47 later. Picked up some patio furniture that had blown off.

[Cromagnum]

I washed and waxed my truck today. Hopefully I did not doom us all.

[captainbarbossa19]

Both the 0z HRRR and 3km NAM show a good chance of rain coming up on Tuesday morning/afternoon. They don't show any crazy amounts, but sometimes they underestimate rainfall.

[869MB]

Most of the computers models haven't done a very good job with forecasting the current activity moving through SE Texas at this time. For example, the 06Z NAM-3km does not reflect the current level of convection over the area...

nam3km_ref_frzn_scus_6.png

Now compare that forecast to the current radar image...

[don]

Getting some thunderstorms right now. That was unexpected...Nice to be getting some much needed rain right now.

[don]

From HGX this morning.

A better setup for stronger storm development can be expected
Tuesday. A shortwave will be making its way eastward across
northeast Mexico and is expected to reach Western Texas in the
morning and Central Texas in the afternoon. Another surge of
moisture is expected Tuesday, further increasing PWs to 1.4 to 1.7
inches and dewpoints into the upper 60s and low 70s. Though the cap
is still present Tuesday morning, the 00Z CAMs show areas of showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms moving in from Southern Texas.
Will have to see if these storms do actually get to develop and stay
alive with this cap in place, so for now have placed 20-30% PoPs for
Tuesday morning. During the afternoon/evening hours however, the cap
weakens, and with SFC/MU CAPE of 2500-3000J/kg, steep mid level
lapse rates, and SFC-6KM shear of around 30-40KTS, it will not take
much for storms to develop across our area. These storms will have
the potential to quickly become strong to severe, capable of
producing heavy rainfall, hail, damaging winds and possible
tornadoes. In addition, a 40-50KT low level jet will move in from
the north Tuesday night, which will help support the livelihood of
incoming storms developing along and just east of a dryline
extending from Northern Texas to Southern Texas. Though there are
differences in the models, most of them are in pretty good agreement
of showers/thunderstorms in the morning/afternoon, followed by
stronger storms developing along and east of the dryline in the
evening/night hours...possibly reaching our local area during the
night hours. SPC Day 2 has a slight risk of severe weather for most
of SE Texas, except the southwestern quadrant where there is a
marginal risk.

[don]

Tomorrows severe weather risk will be conditional on rather the cap can break or not. If it doesn't break expect just streamer showers.If the cap does break though we could have some big over performing storms tomorrow with the moderate CAPE in place.

[DoctorMu]

ICON and CMC move the main rain east. GFS shows more showers west.

Probably rain in Hearne and Huntsville. Potentially, a bust in CLL and HOU. We'll see.

[Cromagnum]

Tomorrows severe weather risk will be conditional on rather the cap can break or not. If it doesn't break expect just streamer showers.If the cap does break though we could have some big over performing storms tomorrow with the moderate CAPE in place.

How often do we get jailbreak storms though? I feel like the cap almost always wins out down here.

[Cpv17]

Tomorrows severe weather risk will be conditional on rather the cap can break or not. If it doesn't break expect just streamer showers.If the cap does break though we could have some big over performing storms tomorrow with the moderate CAPE in place.

How often do we get jailbreak storms though? I feel like the cap almost always wins out down here.

Because we’re too far south from the main area of low pressure. The troughs just aren’t digging enough. I still think tomorrow some of us will see something though. Higher odds north of I-10 of course.

[Stratton20]

I have a feeling tommorow is going to be a huge bust for a lot of folks, cap appears to be too strong

[djmike]

Crazy strong storms this morning in Beaumont. Straight line winds, hail. Large hail. Cloud to ground lightning all around. Was very unexpected. Picked up 1.53” so not complaining. Just was totally shocked how it blew up arriving into Beaumont.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 111742
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

Quite the mixed bag of ceilings this afternoon with an incoming
BKN to OVC deck of MVFR ceilings from the west along with SCT to
BKN MVFR ceilings along the coast. Ceilings consolidate into the
MVFR range in the late afternoon hours and spreads northward with
all sites experiencing MVFR ceilings by the evening hours. Gusty
southerly to southwesterly winds are likely to continue into the
overnight hours but become slightly light with sustained winds
around 12-15 knots and gusts near 20 knots. Along the coast, there
is a brief window for IFR ceilings from 04Z-09Z. Elsewhere,
ceilings remain around 1,500 feet through Tuesday morning. Going
into Tuesday afternoon, sites north of I-10 may see clouds scatter
out enough to go VFR. Coastal sites (especially GLS) are likely to
drop to IFR. Lastly, hi-res model guidance is not at all
consistent on SHRA/TSRA timing and coverage so I have left out
mention of it for all sites except IAH. IAH has a VCSH at 20Z, but
this is flexible and could occur either earlier or later (or
switch to VCTS) depending on which model you choose.

Batiste

[Ptarmigan]

Tomorrows severe weather risk will be conditional on rather the cap can break or not. If it doesn't break expect just streamer showers.If the cap does break though we could have some big over performing storms tomorrow with the moderate CAPE in place.

How often do we get jailbreak storms though? I feel like the cap almost always wins out down here.

Because we’re too far south from the main area of low pressure. The troughs just aren’t digging enough. I still think tomorrow some of us will see something though. Higher odds north of I-10 of course.

The jet stream carries the main area of low pressure further north due to La Nina. If it was El Nino, the jet stream is further south. La Nina and El Nino does not mean it always happen, but increases the chance for it to happen.

[Cpv17]

Finally the Euro has changed its tune!

[mcheer23]

11z HRRR showed .5 to over an inch of rain over some of the area....12z HRRR shows nothing.