Winter Long Range Discussion

[Stratton20]

Looks like the 12z Euro is showing signs that a pattern change may be in the cards as in this run the jet stream buckles and allows the cold air to spill out west,

[Cpv17]

Looks like the 12z Euro is showing signs that a pattern change may be in the cards as in this run the jet stream buckles and allows the cold air to spill out west,

It’s trying so hard to spill south/se but the ridge over us and southeast is preventing it. It’s cuz of the PNA.

[Cpv17]

The latest Euro is flat out nuts. It has temps up north challenging all-time record lows for some areas. We’re talking temps approaching -60°F

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yeah its nuts, lets hope this potential cold air can overpower this ridge, im sick of this warm high pressure over it, it can go away!

[Kingwood36]

It won't pan out...it never does

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 why so negative bro you say that all the time

[Kingwood36]

Kingwood36 why so negative bro you say that all the time

Has it yet? Lol I'm just being real

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 just saying we should be optimistic! Euro only goes out 10 days compared to 16 days on the GFS, we still will get arctic air down into SE texas at some point, this pattern will eventually have to break , just gotta keep our crossed, 10 days out on the euro isnt that far out

[Kingwood36]

Kinda hard to be when everything goes poof and damn near 80 for Christmas..I know it's just the "first day" of winter but damn..Lucy and that football

[Cpv17]

It won't pan out...it never does

Well it’s not modeled to pan out for us right now. Models pretty much show us torching because the PNA is too negative.

[Kingwood36]

It won't pan out...it never does

Well it’s not modeled to pan out for us right now. Models pretty much show us torching because the PNA is too negative.

That's why I said what I said lol

[Stratton20]

Well im staying positive and saying the cold air wins out

[Cpv17]

It won't pan out...it never does

Well it’s not modeled to pan out for us right now. Models pretty much show us torching because the PNA is too negative.

That's why I said what I said lol

Yeah but it’s doubtful that will last all winter. At some point it’ll most likely come.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 the pna is like a switch, right now its turned off ( or negative in this case) but eventually something will come along and cause that switch to flip on, i have to agree that the PNA will probably flip, its just a matter of when it does

[Iceresistance]

CPV17 the pna is like a switch, right now its turned off ( or negative in this case) but eventually something will come along and cause that switch to flip on, i have to agree that the PNA will probably flip, its just a matter of when it does

Right now, the PNA is more positive than expected (It's around -1.25 right now, compared to the model expectations of around -1.75), that might help induce the very cold air closer to us sooner?

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance interesting, that is a little bit more positive than when I last checked which was a few weeks ago, the more positive the PNA gets, the better for us in terms of getting some arctic air in here

[Cpv17]

Iceresistance interesting, that is a little bit more positive than when I last checked which was a few weeks ago, the more positive the PNA gets, the better for us in terms of getting some arctic air in here

Remember a neutral PNA is what we really want in Texas.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 so what number would that be for a neutral PNA? I would assume 0

[Iceresistance]

Iceresistance interesting, that is a little bit more positive than when I last checked which was a few weeks ago, the more positive the PNA gets, the better for us in terms of getting some arctic air in here

Remember a neutral PNA is what we really want in Texas.

Talking about the current trends.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS has gotten VERY interesting in the past few runs.