October 2021

[Stratton20]

The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together

[Iceresistance]

The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together

No, this past Winter's forecasts was even worse, remember the February 2021 Forecast?

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh . . .

This could get interesting.

Is this the sudden stratospheric warming that tends to precede strong southerly cold events about a month in advance?

Yes, that happened as well in February 2021

[weatherguy425]

The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together

That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.

Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.

EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)

[Stratton20]

Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing

[weatherguy425]

Ah gotcha weatherguy425, but I still think this is a little too much warm biased , i watch trsuted meteorologists on youtube like POW ponder and hes calling for the exact opposite( at least at December and beyond) conditions that this outlook lis showing

And La Nina is only one factor, true.

But, be careful with “trusted Mets” on the Internet...

[Stratton20]

Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though

[Iceresistance]

Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though

Yeah on crazy YT Weather Peoples, if I would post something like that, I would also note: "This is only 1 model run, it's likely going to not be there on the next run unless it starts to develop consistency."

[DoctorMu]

The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together

TWC long range predictions have been laughable all year. Last February was predicted to be extremely warm.


Oops.

[DoctorMu]

The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together

That may be presented by the weather channel, but the forecast data is from NOAA, the Climate Prediction Center.

Last December and January were WARMER than normal at KIAH. One cold blast doesn’t make the whole winter “cold”. Historically, a La Nina driven winter favors warmer and drier... but, also leaves the area vulnerable to very cold, but *infrequent cold air outbreaks.

EDIT | On further inspection, that is not CPC data, but generally aligns with it. (Attached)

TBH, NOAA's long range predictions haven't been much better 3-5 day progs have been solid...and hurricane predictions.

[Iceresistance]

The weather channel is a joke, this is quite possibly the worst winter forecast put together

TWC long range predictions have been laughable all year. Last February was predicted to be extremely warm.


Oops.

I remembered seeing that on S2K, after the Extreme Cold & Snow in February 2021, I was saying that the Weather pulled an Uno Reverso on the CPC & TWC.

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t worry about what any long range outlooks say. They most likely won’t pan out. Not wise to look at them unless you just take it with a grain of salt.

[Katdaddy]

Well stated Cpv17. I learned many years ago…..pre-Storm2K days at GoPbi in 1997 that a model run is not the answer. Multiple model runs with consistency and 3-5 days out is my focus now days. With that said, I am ready for the cold…..Fall front down here in W League City.

[Katdaddy]

And yes and long range forecast can and will change over time.

[DoctorMu]

Weatherguy425 Oh I know to be careful but trust me, hes really good, doesn't hype anything up, but yeah i get what you mean, I have seen weather youtube channels in which someone will post a hurricane on a model run like the GFS 15 days out and make their video based off of unreliable data, definitely get your point though

Bastardi? He's a lunatic, but occasionally right with an outside the box analysis or prediction.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time

[Iceresistance]

DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time

It's not Direct Weather for starters, is it "Ryan Hall Y'all"?

[Cromagnum]

It's beautiful in Savannah Georgia right now. Highs in mid 70s and lows in upper 40s at night. Beautiful vacation weather.

[Stratton20]

Iceresistance his channel name is weatherman plus

[Cpv17]

DoctorMu oh no its a different dude, this guys channel , this dude will post a model run of the GFS of a “Major”hurricane when its 16 days out and basically start fear mongering and saying everyone needs to watch out for this, he has been wrong every time

It's not Direct Weather for starters, is it "Ryan Hall Y'all"?

I don’t trust that Direct Weather guy at all. I really for the most part haven’t found any YouTube channels I trust for the weather.