Andrew wrote: I am not saying to panic or anything like that I just feel like some people aren't putting any concern in this wave at all.
Personally I think so far the new board is much better behaved with respect to possible threats and isn't going overboard.
Keep in mind that other than us tropical weather nerds the bulk of folks probably don't even know about 96l (or what the heck a 96l even is) until the local news starts talking about it. And now that there appears to be at least some consensus 96l will bring a possible threat of heavy local rainfall their timing seems just right.
Things no doubt will pick up if this were to begin organizing.
biggerbyte wrote:As of today, I would bet on Brownsville to Beaumont.
Ditto on a Texas landfall, but someone pays WxMan57 to be correct on these things, so if he thinks not much development and into Louisiana, it has to be considered a real possibility.
Yes, isn't it wonderful to have folks that get paid to know more about it than we amateurs? I mean, thank God the NHC was/is on top of 95l. What, with it being on our doorstep and all. It is good to know the public can rely on paid professionals to keep us safe.
Aren't you glad we don't have to be concerned about 96l coming to Texas? Even if he/she did, it will not be
stronger than a depression or tropical storm. Right? Isn't that the official word from the pros. (wiping forehead) I think a vacation is in order. Nothing to worry about here...
Well, I went to the store today and picked up a view things I probably should have already purchaced before. Once I do that, things usually go the other way. . I am curious though, because one model showed the storm looping after landfall al la Allison. That was almost more nerve wracking to me the a cat 1 coming in and moving through once and for all. Any opinions?
Maybe something happening but it's probably just teasing again. Wait until tomorrow morning and see if it's still there. A little interaction with Yucatan could actually help it.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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The 18z GFS brings 96L to the Upper Texas Coast (perhaps Beaumont)
The 18z GFS parellel still brings this to Brownsville.
Both solutions gives us bouts of heavy rain, so it really doesn't matter where this thing makes landfall, unless it were to develop a bit.
I don't really understand wxman's LA prediction as the building ridge across the SE should push whatever becomes of 96L northwestward. I don't see any projections from any models pushing this mess into LA.
I have been looking at the latest sat loops and there is some decent convection around the center. Lets see if this lasts through Dmax and is still there in the morning.
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We need to get a lock on this one soon. Hopefully the models can find something to actually latch onto, otherwise I would not place too much faith in that. It may come down to just watching it's movement, and watching the conditions around it for clues as to where it might go. I encourage everyone in Texas to pay attention, as this one could be on you before you know it. Also, let's remember Alex was a mess too when he was just about to enter the Gulf. Many thought he would not do much. These same folks are saying that about this system. Just watch it, and assume nothing. Same book... Same chapter...
biggerbyte wrote: Also, let's remember Alex was a mess too when he was just about to enter the Gulf. Many thought he would not do much. These same folks are saying that about this system. Just watch it, and assume nothing. Same book... Same chapter...
Actually most of the pros and seasoned amateurs were quite bullish with Alex before it was even named and many correctly got the Mexico track right.
FWIW: Billingsley (Ch. 2 in Houston) reported tonight that his forecast model, that he says has done a good job in the past, brings the heart of the system right into Houston...
txsnowmaker wrote:FWIW: Billingsley (Ch. 2 in Houston) reported tonight that his forecast model, that he says has done a good job in the past, brings the heart of the system right into Houston...
Did he indicate whether it would be a tropical storm, hurricane, or depression?
txsnowmaker wrote:FWIW: Billingsley (Ch. 2 in Houston) reported tonight that his forecast model, that he says has done a good job in the past, brings the heart of the system right into Houston...
Did he indicate whether it would be a tropical storm, hurricane, or depression?
You need to be careful when trusting these homemade models. While they can give you somewhat of a perspective of what will happen I would look at the Euro, GFS, and other models for specifics like where the rain will go etc. On top of that we don't even have a center yet so that even makes it harder and nearly impossible.
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txsnowmaker wrote:FWIW: Billingsley (Ch. 2 in Houston) reported tonight that his forecast model, that he says has done a good job in the past, brings the heart of the system right into Houston...
Did he indicate whether it would be a tropical storm, hurricane, or depression?
You need to be careful when trusting these homemade models. While they can give you somewhat of a perspective of what will happen I would look at the Euro, GFS, and other models for specifics like where the rain will go etc. On top of that we don't even have a center yet so that even makes it harder and nearly impossible.
In all fairness, while Billingsley made special mention of their forecast model, they did put up the "spaghetti map" as well. For. now, he seemed more concerned about the certainty regarding rainfall as opposed to wind issues, wherever this actually makes landfall. Re: tropical development possibilities, my sense was that he is thinking potential TD or TS as opposed to a hurricane (that seems to be the "consensus" at the moment). We shall see--hopefully they are correct on that point.
. I am curious though, because one model showed the storm looping after landfall al la Allison. That was almost more nerve wracking to me the a cat 1 coming in and moving through once and for all. Any opinions?
