August 2020:

[DoctorMu]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Light and VRB/SW winds early this morning, with some cirrus
drifting over area. Obs SW of Houston are reporting spots of fog
here and there, but only terminal that would be affected is LBX
and maybe SGR. Have MIFG at LBX but think VSBY will be VFR by 12Z.

Models suggesting showers and storms fire late this afternoon and
slowly sag south into the evening. Uncertain how organized these
storms will be, and how long into the evening they push. Have
VCTS/PROB30 for thunder as far south as SGR, transitioning to
VCSH. Timing is quite uncertain here, expect further refinements
through the day.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 331 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2020/...

.DISCUSSION...

Our hot stretch continues for yet another day today, with a heat
advisory continuing into this evening. On Monday, we can expect an
unusual August cold front, though "cold" is a fairly generous
descriptor here. While not much cold air will be pushing in behind
this front, the air should at least be somewhat drier, allowing
temperatures to drift back to more seasonable values for the rest
of the week.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will also be on the rise as the
front approaches and moves into the area. We should see isolated
to scattered development late this afternoon into this evening,
with more scattered showers and storms tomorrow. The strongest
storms could produce localized strong to damaging wind gusts,
primarily well north of the Houston metro.


.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday]...

Storms to the west of us, storms to the east, but today, we here
in Southeast Texas were stuck in the middle with heat. Some cirrus
blowoff from the day`s activity in other areas is drifting over us,
but shouldn`t be dense enough to perceptibly change conditions in
these early morning hours. The biggest impact may be to prevent
the formation of the brief, low clouds that have developed for a
couple hours early each morning from Caldwell to Huntsville.

Since we`ll be off to another warm start, with (near) record high
minimum temperatures - especially near the coast - look for heat
to remain the big player for much of the day. We`ve extended this
long heat advisory for another day today, as we have greater
confidence that we will see widespread heat emerge again this
afternoon. We had been looking at the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to hold back the heat this afternoon, and this hope
traces to a small vort max currently over southern Nebraska. This
feature should ride around the edge of the strong western US ridge
and drop into the area from the north, and spark a handful of
showers and thunderstorms on and ahead of the cold front as it
slowly approaches us...it just probably won`t arrive quickly
enough to head off the rise of the heat today.

Expectations are that we should see the first development in our
north around 3 or 4 pm, and make their way south into the evening.
There remains considerable uncertainty into how deep into the
night any convection will hold on, but obviously the deeper into
the night we go, the better a chance we will see for rain around
Houston and on down to the coast.

Rain chances will probably be a little better Monday into Tuesday,
as the front - or what`s left of it - drifts towards the coast and
another, more potent shortwave trough rounds the ridge. This
trough actually succeeds in denting that midlevel ridge as it
moves south. Of course, that height tendency will probably drag
the best forcing farther west than the lead trough, but I`m
confident we`ll see at least some more scattered showers and
storms as it rolls through.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

In the wake of this very welcome front, we should see some drier
air try to push in from the north. Guidance continues to strongly
suggest dewpoints north of Houston dropping to around 60 degrees,
and possibly even into the 50s(!!!) for a bit in the mid-week. So,
even if cold advection behind the front isn`t really a thing,
those lucky enough to see this drier air will get some modestly
cooler nights, which will help keep afternoon highs around or just
below seasonal averages. Relief will not be quite as significant
for the Houston metro coastward, but I`ll remain hopeful that
dewpoints will fall enough for a bit of a break.

Look for light, variable to offshore winds to persist into
Wednesday, but at some point during the day, onshore winds should
return as we fall under the influence high pressure over the Mid-
South. This returns us to our familiar summertime pattern. But,
the western US ridge looks to be a touch weaker, and a trough
should carve itself out over the eastern US. Between these two
longwave features, I still don`t expect us to swing much under the
influence of one or the other, leaving us to continue under fairly
seasonable conditions deep into next week.


.MARINE...

Overall, high pressure over the central Gulf will keep light south
to southwest flow today; though, winds may become light and variable
through the day as a small region of high pressure builds in close
to the Coastal Bend region. The main weather concern will be the
arrival of isolated showers and storms as an upper-level disturbance
and associated frontal boundary move through the region late this
afternoon. The front is expected to move across southeast TX Sunday
night into Monday afternoon; therefore, light offshore winds are
expected along with isolated showers and thunderstorms during this
time frame. Light onshore flow returns to the coastal waters by mid-
week with isolated morning showers through the rest of the week.


.CLIMATE...

Another day, another set of records matched or broken in Southeast
Texas. The City of Houston will see new entries for both heat
records yesterday, as both the high and low temperatures for the
day tied their record values. The minimum temp of 81 matched the
value last seen on this date in 1954. The maximum temp of 101
matched the record last reached in 1994.

Down on the Island, Scholes Field again saw a record high minimum
temperature yesterday, as the temperature of 85 degrees bested the
old record of 84 degrees. The old record dated back to 2017.

Unsurprisingly, a collection of daily heat records are at risk yet
again today. Record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy at
all primary climate sites (College Station, Houston, Hobby, and
Galveston), though all sites are forecast to fall just below their
record values by sunrise. This afternoon, record high temperatures
may be matched at both Houston sites, and perhaps even Galveston
if it warms up a little more than is in the forecast. Safe again
is the high temperature record at College Station, whose daily
record is an impressive 108 degrees.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 102 77 98 73 98 / 20 40 30 20 10
Houston (IAH) 102 80 98 76 97 / 10 30 30 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 94 84 94 82 92 / 10 30 20 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
zones: Austin...Brazoria
Islands...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Colorado...Fort
Bend...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Grimes...Houston...Inland Brazoria...Inland
Galveston...Inland Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland
Matagorda...Madison...Matagorda
Islands...Montgomery...Northern Liberty...Polk...San
Jacinto...Southern
Liberty...Trinity...Walker...Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...05
CLIMATE...Luchs/05

[Stormlover2020]

Buckle hurricane season is about to bust open

[Cpv17]

12z Canadian model has a cane hit SETX and another one coming towards us or SWLA right on its heels.

[Stormlover2020]

Yep going to be interesting

[don]

Yep, EURO is onboard with development also.

[Cpv17]

The latest 8 to 14 day precipitation forecast suggests an increased chance of rainfall for the Texas Gulf coast per the CPC.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z ECMWF EPS (ensembles) suggest 3 potential areas of tropical trouble by day 7.

[DoctorMu]

The 12Z ECMWF EPS (ensembles) suggest 3 potential areas of tropical trouble by day 7.

Mr. Mojo risin'

[DoctorMu]

Outflow storms possible in HGX area tonight. May slide east of CLL down Hwy 59

[DoctorMu]

Just replaced door gaskets on the back door. Damn, it's hot today! At least the mowing was finished yesterday.

[srainhoutx]

I see the tropical disturbance nearing the Eastern Caribbean has been designated 97L this afternoon. That is the disturbance that may pose a threat next weekend for the Gulf.

[jasons2k]

Wow, short term radar forecast was showing a big blowup tonight with storms moving in from the NE, now it shows almost nothing through midnight.

[jasons2k]

I hit 105 today. Both my digital and mercury thermometers are still just over 100 in the shade.

[davidiowx]

I hit 105 today. Both my digital and mercury thermometers are still just over 100 in the shade.

I had 104 with a heat index of 117 about 4:30 or so. Sitting at 98 right now. Humidity is registering lower at 44% which explains the temp/index. Wouldn’t ever notice the difference because it’s hoooot out there!

[Cpv17]

I had 100 here in Wharton with a heat index of 106. Nowhere near as bad as you other guys. First time it has officially hit 100 here this summer.

[djmike]

101 here in Beaumont today. Almost 8pm and currently shows 97. Unbelievable. These are the times we stay in the 80s for overnight lows. Spent 5 minutes outside rolling the hose and its still unbearable. Humidity feels like Im in a swimming pool.

[DoctorMu]

104°F here
Heat Index: Betelgeuse

Now I remember why we have been out of town at this time of August 6 out of the last 8 years!


Storms from the DFW area have descended to near a Waco to Palestine line.

Still assuming a Lucy and the football scenario...but you never know...if the "cold" front continues to lift, and the outflow boundary can tough it out...

[Rip76]

Those Dallas storms may make it.
Still holding together, so far.

[Rip76]

Still holding.

[DoctorMu]

Still holding.

Hit a roadblock at the Brazos County line, but a strong cell is descending down I-45 towards the Woodlands and Jason. Will wonders never cease?

We did have a refreshing outflow boundary breeze visit CLL about 15 min ago.

lol I think a line is fixin' to come together south of us.