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Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:54 pm
by Stormlover2020
They will keep flopping
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:11 pm
by jasons2k
tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 1:38 pm
Is he an OCM in Houston?
He works for a private firm, specializing in aviation. At one time, I believe he worked with a few our of friends over at ImpactWeather (now StormGeo).
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:30 pm
by tireman4
Gotcha. Ok...understood
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:41 pm
by Andrew
All models have shifted into Western Louisiana or points east so that's good news for us locally. The main reason for the shift seems to be in the faster movement of the system and the weaker ridging over the Central US. We still need to keep an eye on things, but the trend is favorable.
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:53 pm
by Cpv17
Big heat ridge building into Texas next week per the latest CPC forecast.
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:03 pm
by Rip76
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:53 pm
Big heat ridge building into Texas next week per the latest CPC forecast.
So depressing.
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:09 pm
by Tx2005
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:53 pm
Big heat ridge building into Texas next week per the latest CPC forecast.
What does that mean? High temps? Impact on the storm's track?
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:19 pm
by Cromagnum
Well, there are two of them. One east and one west. Its a tug of war until one wins to decide direction of storm. Will be hot either waym
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:22 pm
by Rip76
I’m actually surprised at the lack of rain here the last two days.
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:55 pm
by snowman65
I'll take anything east of tx/la border.....further the better...
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:10 pm
by djmike
Ok. Who thinks it will be a more westward landfall? Is the High not gonna be strong enough now to eject it westwards? Or can we start breathing a SMALL sigh of relief? (Yes i know it will change and plenty of days of flip flopping) but as of right now, just curious what your professional opinions are. On the money? More westward? More eastward? TIA
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:23 pm
by Cpv17
Tx2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:09 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:53 pm
Big heat ridge building into Texas next week per the latest CPC forecast.
What does that mean? High temps? Impact on the storm's track?
Very hot and dry weather. CPC seems to think the storm will be east of here and we’ll be on the hot/dry side of it.
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:24 pm
by TexasBreeze
Normally at this point like Andrew said yesterday, around this part of the area and where the storm is, expect more eastward shifts than westward. It is not very likely to see any big west shifts. The shear will probably lopside it with maybe center reforms more north east or east toward stronger convection. Still only Tuesday though...
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:25 pm
by Cpv17
djmike wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:10 pm
Ok. Who thinks it will be a more westward landfall? Is the High not gonna be strong enough now to eject it westwards? Or can we start breathing a SMALL sigh of relief? (Yes i know it will change and plenty of days of flip flopping) but as of right now, just curious what your professional opinions are. On the money? More westward? More eastward? TIA
Not a pro, but my amateur opinion as of right now has a landfall anywhere between Cameron, LA to Gulfport, MS.
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:33 pm
by don
18z GFS shifted west as it has the ridge slightly stronger and therefore Cristobal rides the coast and moves more inland into the Golden Triangle region.Very small changes in the strength of the high/trough can make a big difference on where this ultimately ends up.
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:33 pm
by jasons2k
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:23 pm
Tx2005 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 3:09 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 2:53 pm
Big heat ridge building into Texas next week per the latest CPC forecast.
What does that mean? High temps? Impact on the storm's track?
Very hot and dry weather. CPC seems to think the storm will be east of here and we’ll be on the hot/dry side of it.
Based on what I've seen today, that would be my prediction at this point. But it is WAY too early to call it, and that's just me being pessimistic about the rain.
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:56 pm
by cperk
As a person who has tracked and observed a lot of these GOM tropical systems I think I t is risky 5 to 6 days out to predict any shift trends.
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:58 pm
by mcheer23
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:25 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:10 pm
Ok. Who thinks it will be a more westward landfall? Is the High not gonna be strong enough now to eject it westwards? Or can we start breathing a SMALL sigh of relief? (Yes i know it will change and plenty of days of flip flopping) but as of right now, just curious what your professional opinions are. On the money? More westward? More eastward? TIA
Not a pro, but my amateur opinion as of right now has a landfall anywhere between Cameron, LA to Gulfport, MS.
Freeport to New Orleans
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:13 pm
by Stormlover2020
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:25 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:10 pm
Ok. Who thinks it will be a more westward landfall? Is the High not gonna be strong enough now to eject it westwards? Or can we start breathing a SMALL sigh of relief? (Yes i know it will change and plenty of days of flip flopping) but as of right now, just curious what your professional opinions are. On the money? More westward? More eastward? TIA
Not a pro, but my amateur opinion as of right now has a landfall anywhere between Cameron, LA to Gulfport, MS.
This will not be a miss storm la to tx I’m still saying sw la
Re: June 2020: Tracking TS Christabol
Posted: Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:24 pm
by sau27
Maybe I’m wrong but it looks like the 12z euro just plows the storm through the bottom of the ridge which I don’t think is very likely.