January 2019 - Active Progressive WX Pattern Ahead

[TexasMetBlake]

Here's a look at the 00z NAM still bullish on winter weather state wide. 00z GFS is another snoozer.

[CRASHWX]

Let this develop folks temps are gonna slide and moisture is on the increase

[harp]

Let this develop folks temps are gonna slide and moisture is on the increase

Have to see if the next run of the NAM continues this trend. I will feel better about it then.

[Andrew]

Looking more and more likely that Central Texas will see a winter event next week as a strong upper level low rotates through the state. Models are really struggling with how the low ejects across the state and that will be key for how far north moisture advects. Strong warm nose is present by almost all models for the majority of this event, but I do suspect cooling will occur enough by Tuesday night and Wednesday morning to get a wintry mix for those across the Central part of the state. The northern counties of SE Texas could also see some wintry precip when the low moves across but I suspect the window will be narrow. Otherwise, expect cold and wet around the Houston area.

[CRASHWX]

To the pros...do you guys think the Us and euro are not in line with the MJO because looking at phase to phase and the normal temp alignment for those phases...the forecast for the models do not jive in my opinion from the info I have observed. I realize this is more long term than this week but I was just interested in your take?

[harp]

Got quiet in here....

[redneckweather]

Got quiet in here....

Yep, pretty boring forecast over the next week or so. Cold n wet. We are going to have to wait a bit for things to get interesting around here...I hope. lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This winter weather go around is for Austin to Dallas over to Longview.

Good for them. They were shut out last year. We will have many more chances this year with this pattern. Even our resident heat miser has said so.

He thinks SE Texas could see multiple from January 15- End of winter.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Got quiet in here....

Yep, pretty boring forecast over the next week or so. Cold n wet. We are going to have to wait a bit for things to get interesting around here...I hope. lol

I’d take cold and wet over 75 and sunny in the middle of Winter ... 180 times out of 10.

That warm weather crap is for the birds... and spring and summer

[harp]

This winter weather go around is for Austin to Dallas over to Longview.

Good for them. They were shut out last year. We will have many more chances this year with this pattern. Even our resident heat miser has said so.

He thinks SE Texas could see multiple from January 15- End of winter.

LOL! Who's the heat miser?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

This winter weather go around is for Austin to Dallas over to Longview.

Good for them. They were shut out last year. We will have many more chances this year with this pattern. Even our resident heat miser has said so.

He thinks SE Texas could see multiple from January 15- End of winter.

LOL! Who's the heat miser?

Wxman57

[harp]

I thought so!! Even HE'S on board this winter? Wow.

[harp]

Well, the GFS still refuses to drive any cold air down to the coast through Jan. 15th.

[Ptarmigan]

Got quiet in here....

Yep, pretty boring forecast over the next week or so. Cold n wet. We are going to have to wait a bit for things to get interesting around here...I hope. lol

I’d take cold and wet over 75 and sunny in the middle of Winter ... 180 times out of 10.

That warm weather crap is for the birds... and spring and summer

Exactly. That is why we have winter. I will gladly take a cold winter any day over warm winter.

[Ptarmigan]

This winter weather go around is for Austin to Dallas over to Longview.

Good for them. They were shut out last year. We will have many more chances this year with this pattern. Even our resident heat miser has said so.

He thinks SE Texas could see multiple from January 15- End of winter.

Some big winter events have occurred after January 15th, like in 1895, 1899, 1932, 1940, 1949, 1951, 1960, 1973, 1989, and 2011.

[Cpv17]

I’m beginning to have my doubts about this winter. After this small cold snap this week, all the models pretty much show a torch.

[Kingwood36]

I've said it before and I'll say it again..if you want a winter and winter weather you are going to have to move away from houston

[harp]

I’m beginning to have my doubts about this winter. After this small cold snap this week, all the models pretty much show a torch.

And YOU are the one who has been giving me hope!

[TexasMetBlake]

The 12z suite of models came in warmer and less robust with the winter weather. It was always going to be rain in Houston given the significant warm nose. I don't see much going into January either.

For what it's worth, February can be active with winter weather here so it's not over yet.

[Kingwood36]

The 12z suite of models came in warmer and less robust with the winter weather. It was always going to be rain in Houston given the significant warm nose. I don't see much going into January either.

For what it's worth, February can be active with winter weather here so it's not over yet.

Doesn't give us much hope lol