AUGUST 2018 - Scatterd Showers/Storms To End August

[jasons2k]

0.00

You are cursed. Hopefully a move home to Florida will change your luck. We've watched you doing your darnest to keep a tropical environment alive over the years in Montgomery County. I gave up in less than 3 years upon returning to my Houston roots. We wish you and yours the best as you eventually transfer to Florida!

Thank you. I love Houston. Above all, the people here are are the best. But home is home. I don’t know how long this process will take - lots of moving parts - but I’ll still be around.

[Katdaddy]

A 60% chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain today and Saturday which is well needed for portions of SE TX.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
348 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>438-111200-
Austin-Brazoria Islands-Brazos-Burleson-Chambers-Coastal Brazoria-
Coastal Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-
Coastal Matagorda-Colorado-Fort Bend-
Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula-Grimes-Houston-
Inland Brazoria-Inland Galveston-Inland Harris-Inland Jackson-
Inland Matagorda-Madison-Matagorda Islands-Montgomery-
Northern Liberty-Polk-San Jacinto-Southern Liberty-Trinity-Walker-
Waller-Washington-Wharton-
348 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected today with
locally heavy rainfall possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Saturday
with locally heavy rainfall possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

[tireman4]

HGX Radar Update

[unome]

not so sure we'll get to see the Perseid shower, but it looks like some of our drought areas in TX will get a needed bit of rain in days 1-3, before the brutal August heat & sun return

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/a ... p_ndfd.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

We've always returned to the tried & true when it comes to the landscaping plants - can't beat these https://aggie-horticulture.tamu.edu/tex ... &limit=All

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101551
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1051 AM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Difficult forecast underway today as heavy rainfall along a
boundary in Central Texas begins to sag into the Piney Woods
region. Showers and thunderstorms have also begun to develop
across the CWA as convective temperatures in the mid 80s have been
reached. Morning soundings and GOES data confirm that a moist
airmass with PWs over 2" has settled across the region. Long and
skinny CAPE aligned with PW values at or above 2" highlight the
potential for heavy rainfall. Additionally, as storms continue to
develop across the CWA and produce outflow boundaries today, the
seabreeze will enhance this convection and add yet another
boundary to the mix. Should several storms pass over the same area
today, or if colliding boundaries result in a nearly stationary
storm as we saw yesterday, minor flooding is a possibility.
Accordingly, WPC has placed the northern half of the CWA in a
marginal excessive rainfall outlook.

For precipitation extent, HRRR/RAP have been underwhelming with
convection the past several days, and NMMB/ARW/NSSL suggest
widespread convection by 18Z. Have leaned closer to the wetter
solutions, as numerous interacting outflow boundaries coupled with
this moist, unstable airmass will likely lead to continuous rounds
of showers and thunderstorms today. ARW/NMMB also indicate a band
of thunderstorms extending from Cleveland to Columbus through 03Z,
so higher POPs were extended for that time. Changes were also made
to temperatures to match trends.

[Katdaddy]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
501 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

TXC071-110000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0085.180810T2201Z-180811T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chambers TX-
501 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...
Northeastern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 459 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause minor flooding in the advisory
area. Rain rates of one to two inches per hour have been reported
with this cluster of storms.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Anahuac.

Any additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

[Katdaddy]

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
458 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

TXC071-201-291-110000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0084.180810T2158Z-180811T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Chambers TX-Liberty TX-Harris TX-
458 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Northwestern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Harris County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 700 PM CDT.

* At 457 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding in
the advisory area. Rain rates of one to two inches per hour have
been reported with this cluster of storms.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Northern Pasadena, Baytown, Deer Park, Humble, Beach City,
Cloverleaf, Highlands, Channelview, Barrett, Kingwood, Crosby, Mont
Belvieu, Cove, Morgan`s Point, Bush Intercontinental Airport,
Atascocita, Lake Houston Dam, Lake Houston, Houston Ship Channel
and San Jacinto State Park.

Any additional rain will result in minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

[jasons2k]

Well, it looks like it wants to rain. Will it or is it just teasing me again???

[srainhoutx]

Outflow boundary collisions have done their work today. The East side really took a beating from the earlier storms.

[jasons2k]

That outflow racing from east to west is going to cutoff any instability over here, and the storms to my SW should fall apart as they move this way to the NE, just like the last several days. I predict another 0.00"....

[DoctorMu]

Outflow boundary collisions have done their work today. The East side really took a beating from the earlier storms.

We're getting our nightly outflow boundary breeze, but no rain.

TBF, IMBY Wed afternoon there was a brief shower, accumulating 0.15 inches. Need an order of magnitude more of rain than that or more.

[jasons2k]

The winless streak continues down here. My neighbors all around me have seen some rain this week. Maybe one day I’ll upload the screen shot of RadarScope from back in July when my house was in the center of a doughnut hole.

[davidiowx]

Those folks in Waller county are sure having their fair of fun (rain) tonight.. my lightning detector is registering strikes from that cell in Richmond.. A cell that isn’t moving much either

[srainhoutx]

I continue to see unsettled weather across our Region in the longer range. Inspecting the afternoon Updated Climate Prediction Center Day 8 to 14 as well as the MJO Outlooks, there are increasing indications that a full latitude trough develops as the MJO heads toward the Indian Ocean that is favorable for tropical development in the Atlantic Basin. Conditions across the Atlantic has been hostile, but changes are brewing as likely the last surge of African Dust arrives Sunday into Tuesday. Climatology tells us that mid August is when SAL Outbreaks decline as we move closer to Fall.

While our tropical season for Texas has about 5 to 6 weeks remaining, climatology wise, we are heading toward peak season and as any responsible weather forecaster will tell you...it only take one to make for a very bad Season. Last year we had 10 Hurricanes and 3 Major Hurricanes develop around this time and ended about 7 weeks or so later. Always keep one eye on the Tropics as we near Peak Season as things can flip quickly.

Hopefully those that have escape the rain will get their chance soon enough. I see an area of disturbed weather heading our way just East of Tampico in the Western Gulf. That feature combined with the trough/closed upper low over Texas should increase our heavy rainfall chances tomorrow.

08102018 CPC 814temp_new.gif

08102018 CPC 814prcp_new.gif

08102018 CPC Day 8 to 14 500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

08102018 MJO diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

[jasons2k]

I hope so. I’ve kept the sprinklers off thinking “maybe tomorrow will be the day” but I can’t keep it up forever. If I don’t get any rain in the next day or two, I’m gonna have to flip the switch. And then the next day it will probably pour

I don’t mean to be so cynical, but it is a broken record...

[davidiowx]

I hope so. I’ve kept the sprinklers off thinking “maybe tomorrow will be the day” but I can’t keep it up forever. If I don’t get any rain in the next day or two, I’m gonna have to flip the switch. And then the next day it will pour probably

Lol.. flip the switch buddy.. it won’t hurt one way or the other!!

[unome]

Those folks in Waller county are sure having their fair of fun (rain) tonight.. my lightning detector is registering strikes from that cell in Richmond.. A cell that isn’t moving much either

it just doesn't want to quit - craziest thing, we can look out our dining room & see clear sky & stars, but the thunder & lightning in the other direction hasn't quit for hours - not a drop of rain on us, but the light show is incredible

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-96

[unome]

really blowing up by San Antonio now, also

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... =undefined

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1006 PM CDT Fri Aug 10 2018

.UPDATE...
A broken line of storms has developed oriented northeast to
southwest from Kendall County down to Dimmit County. This line is
very slowly moving to the east. These storms are producing copious
amounts of lightning, moderate to heavy rain, and gusty winds. A gust
front has begun to move out ahead of the leading edge of the
convective line, which may begin to decay the intensity of the
convection and hinder its eastward progress if it manages to cut the
storms off from their warm, moist inflow source. In the short term,
grids have been updated for current trends. PoPs out west have been
decreased considerably where rain has ended, with PoPs increased
considerably where storms are ongoing and heading in the near term.

Convective allowing models have been performing quite poorly today,
with the most recent HRRR runs initializing terribly. Thus, I am not
putting too much stock in what they are showing for the remainder of
the evening and overnight hours. For now, essentially using a blend
of various models for PoPs in the 1 am to 7 am (6z to 12z) time
frame, with this resulting in decreasing PoPs a bit, especially
across the western areas and into the Hill Country (from 70% down to
50%).

[srainhoutx]

From NWS San Antonio/Austin...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1006 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2018

.UPDATE...
A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST FROM KENDALL COUNTY DOWN TO DIMMIT COUNTY. THIS LINE IS
VERY SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY WINDS. A GUST
FRONT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE, WHICH MAY BEGIN TO DECAY THE INTENSITY OF THE
CONVECTION AND HINDER ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS IF IT MANAGES TO CUT THE
STORMS OFF FROM THEIR WARM, MOIST INFLOW SOURCE. IN THE SHORT TERM,
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR CURRENT TRENDS. POPS OUT WEST HAVE BEEN
DECREASED CONSIDERABLY WHERE RAIN HAS ENDED, WITH POPS INCREASED
CONSIDERABLY WHERE STORMS ARE ONGOING AND HEADING IN THE NEAR TERM.

CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING QUITE POORLY TODAY,
WITH THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS INITIALIZING TERRIBLY. THUS, I AM NOT
PUTTING TOO MUCH STOCK IN WHAT THEY ARE SHOWING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR NOW, ESSENTIALLY USING A BLEND
OF VARIOUS MODELS FOR POPS IN THE 1 AM TO 7 AM (6Z TO 12Z) TIME
FRAME, WITH THIS RESULTING IN DECREASING POPS A BIT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY (FROM 70% DOWN TO
50%).

[unome]

I hope so. I’ve kept the sprinklers off thinking “maybe tomorrow will be the day” but I can’t keep it up forever. If I don’t get any rain in the next day or two, I’m gonna have to flip the switch. And then the next day it will probably pour

I don’t mean to be so cynical, but it is a broken record...

you just might get a shower this morning ? best wishes http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-24