July 2018: Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
145 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 345 PM CDT.

* AT 145 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SEALY, SAN FELIPE AND CAT SPRING.

[srainhoutx]

Flood Warning issued for Greens Bayou at HWY 59 and also at Ley Rd.

[srainhoutx]

Areal Flood Warning coming for portions of Harris and Southern Montgomery Counties. This is not for expected additional flooding, but because too many people are out driving around in areas already flooding. I know it's the Big 4th of July Holiday, but be sensible folks. Is it worth damaging your vehicle by getting stuck in flood waters?

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
234 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

MONTGOMERY TX-HARRIS TX-
234 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2018

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT.

* AT 231 PM CDT, SEVERAL ROADS REMAIN FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE IN THE
WARNING AREA AND SOME SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS CLOSE TO BANKFULL.
RAINFALL RATES HAVE TAPERED OFF FOR THE TIME BEING AND ADDITIONAL
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED FROM RAINFALL. HOWEVER, WATER WILL BE
SLOW TO RECEDE AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED NOT TO DRIVE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHWESTERN PASADENA, DEER PARK, SOUTH HOUSTON, BELLAIRE, HUMBLE,
WEST UNIVERSITY PLACE, KATY, GALENA PARK, TOMBALL, JACINTO CITY,
JERSEY VILLAGE, HUNTERS CREEK VILLAGE, BUNKER HILL VILLAGE, PINEY
POINT VILLAGE, CLOVERLEAF, DOWNTOWN HOUSTON, GREENWAY / UPPER KIRBY
AREA, KINGWOOD, SPRING BRANCH NORTH AND SECOND WARD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

[DoctorMu]

Eh, you still have a chance later today and especially over the next week. I would be shocked if you don't get anything from it all.

Maybe a few brief showers today. Impulses under the ridge from Friday through Monday may yield scattered showers. We haven't had much rain for the last 2 months - fingers crossed before the death ridge settles back in in the last half of July and August.

I think this weekend coverage should be pretty good across the area as some rather potent shortwaves are going to retrograde across the gulf coast. Plus a weak front may approach from the northeast and make it over the northeast part of the state this weekend, providing more outflow boundaries to take advantage of. Ill keep my fingers crossed for you.

The models have been suggesting this for a week, and the forecast appears to continue to be generally on track. I can report a tongue or two of rain has been gently lashing us we have the *potential* to enter mid July and August in better shape than the early part of the decade. 2011 doesn't fade fast from the memory. We lost a lot of trees in the region between here and Austin.

[srainhoutx]

Emptied 4.68 from my gage from 10 AM to 5 PM. Forecast verified. Remember the Euro and some of the short term meso guidance suggested 9 to 10 inches in some isolated locations. Not to shabby for a warm core tropical like system that crossed our Region...

[bikerack]

We got just over 4.5" in Kingwood. I'm glad I mowed last night.

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

July 4, 2018 will go down as the wettest July 4th in the history of Houston and Galveston…see record rainfall numbers below.

Inverted trough and surface feature that resulted in the 5-8 inches of rainfall in 3-4 hours on Wednesday over the western side of Houston has moved into SC TX this morning. Local air mass has shown a bit of a drying trend in the last 12 hours, but is still plenty moist and with trigger temperatures only in the 81-84 degree range expect showers and thunderstorms to develop by mid to late morning near the coast and spread inland through the day. This will be more the isolated to scattered brief heavy rainfall compared to yesterday’s more widespread rainfall.

Center of impressive 600dm ridge over the northern US will build into the W US Friday into the weekend while upper level easterly flow remains in place along the northern Gulf coast. Another upper level trough is currently located over the NE Gulf of Mexico and will begin to move westward and arrive into SE TX Friday and Saturday pushing rain chances back above 60%. Moisture levels remain elevated into early next week with PWS values of 2.0-2.3 inches which will continue to support a heavy rainfall threat under any sustained convection. Expect scattered storms on Friday similar to today…then increasing coverage on both Saturday and Sunday with better lift and dynamics in place as the upper level trough moves over the area and then west of the area.

Not seeing any significant signals in the guidance for sustained heavy rainfall or flooding potential, but with a tropical air mass in place we could easily see 1-3 inches of rainfall under any heavy storms in a short period of time. Grounds are certainly saturated after the rainfall yesterday and additional heavy rainfall will run-off quickly. Main threats moving forward look to be street flooding issues under areas of isolated heavy rainfall. Will need to keep an eye on the forecast into early next week in case one day begins to look more favorable for more widespread heavy rains.



July 4, 2018 Rainfall Records:

BUSH IAH: 4.19 inches (old record 3.49 inches in 1942)
Hobby: 6.00 inches (old record 3.04 inches in 1942)
Galveston: 2.27 inches (old record 2.27 inches in 1942)

Hydro:
All bayous, creeks, and rivers have crested and are falling this morning…including the West Fork of the San Jacinto River at Humble which is now back within banks.

Tropics:
NHC is currently monitoring two area over the Atlantic Ocean…both have the potential for tropical cyclone development, but both currently pose no threat to any land areas. While the southern system looks impressive on satellite, any development is likely to be short lived as the feature moves into increasingly unfavorable conditions in the next 72 hours.

[Texaspirate11]

NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST/EDT on Tropical Depression Two located over the central tropical Atlantic

[tireman4]

Happy 5th of July....

[Andrew]

Need to keep an eye on some slight training from Missouri City to Pasadena over the next hour or so.

[CrashTestDummy]

It's looked like a flame thrower all afternoon! The area is currently under a flash flood advisory until 1615 today.

[Cromagnum]

Looks like a healthy line off towards LA border.

[Belmer]

Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.

[Ounce]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC291-373-407-060030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0069.180706T0004Z-180706T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
704 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central San Jacinto County in southeastern Texas...
North central Liberty County in southeastern Texas...
Southwestern Polk County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 730 PM CDT.

* At 703 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Coldspring to Lake Livingston to 9 miles
southwest of Alabama-Coushatta Reservation, moving south at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Livingston, Shepherd, Coldspring, Goodrich, Lake Livingston State
Park, West Livingston, Romayor, Evergreen and Rye.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near Lake Livingston, get away from the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15
miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are
close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do
not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 9473 3037 9475 3050 9534 3075 9512
3069 9469
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 016DEG 20KT 3064 9513 3060 9478

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

[Ounce]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC071-167-291-060045-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0068.180706T0002Z-180706T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
702 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2018

The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Northeastern Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Northeastern Chambers County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Liberty County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 745 PM CDT.

* At 701 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles south of China to 14 miles northeast of High
Island, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Anahuac, Winnie, Stowell and Hankamer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2956 9442 2973 9467 2994 9468 2999 9444
2989 9444 2989 9436 2962 9435
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 078DEG 17KT 2997 9435 2966 9418

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

Huffman

[bikerack]

Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.

Don't think the models were right. I am getting hammered in Kingwood right now.

[DoctorMu]

Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.

Don't think the models were right. I am getting hammered in Kingwood right now.

That line skirted us, left a trace, and is now pummeling NW Harris Co. A second wave is approaching CLL, but falling apart. We had a nice outflow boundary breeze a few minutes ago. Not sure things will get wet though. We may have to wait for the front. Getting tired of running the sprinklers, and we still have the last half of July and August to go.

[Belmer]

Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.

Don't think the models were right. I am getting hammered in Kingwood right now.

I wouldn't say they weren't right. Generally, the storms to the east and north did weaken with the loss of daytime heating. The severe warned storm that went through Beaumont and skirted the coastal counties collapsed quickly as it approached Baytown. Locations south of I-10 today saw storms already... atmosphere being a bit more worked over. North of I-10 has been hot and dry, so those storms were able to hold a bit of a punch longer.

Though with that said, the HRRR does seem to be struggling as of late with these east to west storms.

[DoctorMu]

Models are consistent that those storms out east will fall apart as the approach Houston this evening. The fact that those high top clouds are blowing over our area right now while the complex is still 75 miles away should help prevent those storms from being so intense as they move in. Should see a gradual weakening trend as day time heating lessens and the clouds helping act as a bit of a cap.

Don't think the models were right. I am getting hammered in Kingwood right now.

I wouldn't say they weren't right. Generally, the storms to the east and north did weaken with the loss of daytime heating. The severe warned storm that went through Beaumont and skirted the coastal counties collapsed quickly as it approached Baytown. Locations south of I-10 today saw storms already... atmosphere being a bit more worked over. North of I-10 has been hot and dry, so those storms were able to hold a bit of a punch longer.

Though with that said, the HRRR does seem to be struggling as of late with these east to west storms.

Indeed. Enough heat retention (90°F at dusk) so the last storm held together a bit. We may get a few tenths of an inch, and another cell heading this way, but weakening. Evening rain not associated with a squal line or STJ is unusual up here.

[srainhoutx]

It appears most of the showers/storms are far enough offshore to possibly give us a bit of a break in the rain chances today. Odds begin to increase tomorrow afternoon/evening as the next area of disturbed weather moves from East to West across our Region on Sunday. This one appears to have a bit more areal coverage and the WPC has Outlined a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Sunday.