JUNE 2018: Drying Trend & Summer Heat Returns

[DoctorMu]

Euro has some disturbed weather next week over the Bay of Campeche. Canadian bring a wave into Texas in 8-9 days, GFS for entertainment value right now.

We'll see what the GoM brewmasters have in store over the coming week.

The 12Z GFS has a cat2 979mb storm coming ashore around Port Arthur and turns due west.

The CMC has a 999mb tropical storm coming ashore south of Corpus.

The GEFS ensemble has a diffuse low in the NW Gulf SE of Galveston. All three models see coastal rains of 1-2 in and up. We'll see will less ridging overhead what transpires.

[srainhoutx]

Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:

Little day to day change for the area with high pressure to our WNW and varying degrees of moisture each day resulting in slightly differing coverage of thunderstorms.

Deep pool of moisture that was over the area on Saturday has shifted slightly eastward today and is located over the Sabine River Valley…still have decent moisture over the area with PWS of 1.7-1.9 inches, but a much drier air mass with PWS around 1.5 inches is pushing NNE from the lower TX coast this morning and should begin to arrive into the area this afternoon. Think best rain chances today will be along and NE of a line from College Station to Sugar Land to Galveston and may end up being east of I-45.

Fairly dry air mass is in place over the region Monday and Tuesday, but will hold 20-30% rain chances for storms that may be able to develop along the seabreeze front…probably closer to 20% than 30%.

Upper ridge never fully regains a strong hold over the area…like last week…so daily chances of seabreeze storms will continue with certain days having a better chance than others based on moisture availability.

Extended:
Main focus for the upcoming week will be the period from Friday-Monday and what is anything will attempt to develop over the central/western Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave currently entering the eastern Caribbean Sea will move westward and arrive into the NW Caribbean Sea by mid to late week. High pressure building westward across the SW Atlantic and high pressure over the SW US will create a general WNW steering flow for the tropical wave to move into the central/southern/western Gulf by next weekend. Global computer models continue to show a wide range of potential solutions between models and model runs leading to little confidence on what may eventually transpire over the western Gulf. If one were to look at the overall large scale pattern indicators and not the individual models runs…there are some subtle signs that conditions over the western Gulf of Mexico will become more conducive for tropical development by next weekend. One such indicator is the MJO Phase which will be moving into a favorable pattern for rising air over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea by late this week. However, much may actually hinge on what happens with developing tropical system “Bud” in the eastern Pacific off the west coast of MX and models brings this system NW along the west coast of MX and the upper level outflow from Bud could produce a belt of strong wind shear across the western Gulf late this week.

For now will go with a trough/tropical wave axis moving into the western Gulf of Mexico next weekend with maybe a broad surface low attempting to form along the wave axis which could stretch from the Bay of Campeche to the TX coast. Coordinated NHC/WPC graphics are keeping the feature an open wave at the moment. A significant surge of deep tropical moisture will accompany this feature along with a sustained tap of deep SE flow out of the western Caribbean Sea which will likely support increasing rain chances…possibly as early as Friday…but more likely Saturday onward.

Forecast uncertainty remains high for the late week/weekend period and forecast changes are likely over the coming days based on hopefully better model agreement on what may happen over the western Gulf next weekend.

[DoctorMu]

Sure - lol GFS, and it's right 9 out of every 4 times...but it did sniff Harvey out days ahead (could confirm if I could find the Harvey thread, although the models under predicted the acceleration of intensity), but we're up to over 10 consecutive runs...we should just be mindful even this early in the season and a week out. Keep your eyes peeled this week just in case - be prepared... or be prepared to be prepared. We'd all take rain without organized tropical development, which is a more likely scenario...or even a greater chance of rain. Euro and Canadian don't have organized systems on their current runs.



https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpa ... =3&theater

[Rip76]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 61012&fh=6


Maybe I should've posted this in the Hurricane thread?

[DoctorMu]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 61012&fh=6


Maybe I should've posted this in the Hurricane thread?

It's cool. Still a week away, but now the 12Z Canadian is within 100 mi of 12Z GFS run. A long, long way out - I'd take an open wave.


Today's showers appear to be all east of I-45. We'll see if a sea breeze kick in this afternoon.

[cperk]

Question for you guys the GFS and the CMC has been persistent on development for days and still no mention from the NHC.IF these models and others continue to show development into next week with no support from the Euro(which is what they're waiting for) how will the NHC handle this.There is a chance the GFS could be on to something.Just playing devils advocate.

[srainhoutx]

Question for you guys the GFS and the CMC has been persistent on development for days and still no mention from the NHC.IF these models and others continue to show development into next week with no support from the Euro(which is what they're waiting for) how will the NHC handle this.There is a chance the GFS could be on to something.Just playing devils advocate.

Typically the NHC plays development chances very conservative unless there is overwhelming model support for TC Genesis. Right now, those TC genesis chances are rather low in the 30 to 40% range in 120 hours. Yesterday the ECMWF suggested a trough axis or open tropical wave moving NW out of the NW Caribbean Sea. That for me was a change regarding the upper Heat Ridge and it may be weakening as the GFS and lately the CMC are showing. Also notice our dusty skies today. That's African Dust that has traversed the entire Atlantic Ocean. There is a tropical wave that just entered the far Eastern Caribbean Sea this morning. That may be one feature along with a favorable MJO and a strong Convectively Couple Kelvin Wave that are positives for potentially assisting in some form of development, if it happens at all. Right now it looks like a nice surge of deeper tropical moisture will head our way for next weekend increasing shower and storm chance next Saturday throughout next weekend into at least the following Monday. We will continue to monitor being sensitive to the edgy nerves that still abound post Harvey...

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Here’s to a foot of rain over the next 14 days!

[srainhoutx]

After another day of drier air, the sensible weather patter shifts to a more summerlike pattern with heat of the day showers/storms developing along the seabreeze as the Upper Heat Ridge retreats West and a series of disturbances roll across our Region.

By late next week, a surge of deeper rich tropical moisture with its origin from the NW Caribbean Sea arrives as a tropical wave moves NW toward the Texas Coast. While we do not believe anything tropical in nature will develop at this time, we will continue to keep a keen eye on the Western/SW Caribbean Sea where a monsoonal gyre develops as a tropical wave approaches mid week. Stay Tuned!

[DoctorMu]

Question for you guys the GFS and the CMC has been persistent on development for days and still no mention from the NHC.IF these models and others continue to show development into next week with no support from the Euro(which is what they're waiting for) how will the NHC handle this.There is a chance the GFS could be on to something.Just playing devils advocate.

NHS and NOAA are leaning to a sensible cautious solution for now. There is plenty of time to monitor.

The weakening ridge is the key to provide opportunity for some type of tropical mischief, with an open wave a more likely scenario...or a more potent seabreeze.

[but yeah, I'm still tuning in for the 18z and 00z episodes]


It's funny how 80 miles makes a significant difference in perspective. The Death Ridge is the default summer pattern for us in College Station.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
335 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Much less shower and thunderstorm coverage today than this time
yesterday. Current radar shows thunderstorm activity limited to
Houston and Trinity counties in our area and into East Texas.
These storms can produce frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and
gusty winds. An outflow boundary from earlier convection in
Southern Louisiana continues to propagate northwestward into our
area. Will be keeping an eye on ongoing convection and monitor any
additional development or enhancement along the outflow.

The upper level ridge will continue to slide to the west over New
Mexico/TX Panhandle as a shortwave trough approaches from the
west. While this will allow for a more typical precipitation
pattern in the afternoon and evening, drier air will move into the
area Monday morning from the south with PWs less than 1.5". This
drier air will help keep POPs down in the 10-20 range for the
first half of the work week. Behind the upper level ridge, an
inverted trough will pass over the area Wednesday through the
weekend. This will help dampen any convective inhibition and
provide an extra source of lift for diurnal showers and
thunderstorms, so rain chances next week are the highest on
Thursday and Friday afternoons.

There is still a great amount of uncertainty with our forecast
next weekend. It is becoming clearer that a wave of tropical
moisture may impact our area next weekend and provide additional
rainfall. At this time, there is little confidence that there will
be any tropical cyclone development late this week. The National
Hurricane Center does not have any development forecast for the
next five days, but will continue to monitor any changing model
trends.

[DoctorMu]

GFS appears to be leaning to an open wave solution on 18Z until it nears Corpus, with more of the run to reveal. I'd take that.

7 days is a long, long time to find the best answer.

[sambucol]

GFS appears to be leaning to an open wave solution on 18Z until it nears Corpus, with more of the run to reveal. I'd take that.

7 days is a long, long time to find the best answer.

And a short amount of time to be ready. If it’s developing in the GOM, it may catch people off guard.

[unome]

while I understand ppl may be nervous in regards to possible tropical rain, it could really be a good thing for parts of TX as it's slipping deeper into drought & anyone here who remembers ashes raining down on their home can't help but be pleased at the thought of beneficial rains helping to erase some of the drought symptoms

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMa ... aspx?South

[unome]

from https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas


Summary of Drought for Texas
Abnormal dryness or drought are currently affecting approximately 18,202,000 people in Texas, which is about 72% of the state's population.
Population in drought numbers are as of 06-05-2018. These numbers update Thursdays at approximately 9am EDT.

[DoctorMu]

from https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas


Summary of Drought for Texas
Abnormal dryness or drought are currently affecting approximately 18,202,000 people in Texas, which is about 72% of the state's population.
Population in drought numbers are as of 06-05-2018. These numbers update Thursdays at approximately 9am EDT.

That's exactly what I have in mind. If only these systems would cooperate!

[srainhoutx]

GFS appears to be leaning to an open wave solution on 18Z until it nears Corpus, with more of the run to reveal. I'd take that.

7 days is a long, long time to find the best answer.

And a short amount of time to be ready. If it’s developing in the GOM, it may catch people off guard.

Probably not. Our NWS Team as well as other County Officials certainly are paying attention. In fact...rumor has it that one local County Sheriff threatened to issue an arrest warrant for the Chief Meteorologist of a SE Texas TV Station for crying "fire" in a theater....

[unome]

from https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/texas


Summary of Drought for Texas
Abnormal dryness or drought are currently affecting approximately 18,202,000 people in Texas, which is about 72% of the state's population.
Population in drought numbers are as of 06-05-2018. These numbers update Thursdays at approximately 9am EDT.

That's exactly what I have in mind. If only these systems would cooperate!

7-day qpf gets closer (not that the 7-day is wholly reliable) http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpfloop_6hr_d17.html

but the 5-day leaves a lot of our state high & dry, not good, especially with temps as high as they've been
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif

[unome]

water - the new gold

https://www.gosanangelo.com/story/news/ ... 687316002/

[Andrew]

GFS has totally dropped formation over the BOC/Western Gulf during the 00z run. This is the most likely outcome as upper-level wind support is not there. Hopefully, we will be in position enough to still receive some rain from the trough axis that crosses the western Carribean. Otherwise, expect relatively dry conditions for much of this week with increases in rain probability this weekend into early next week.

[stormlover]

Euro ensembles picking it up, just because gfs dropped it one time doesn’t mean it will be dropped, gfs actually picked it back up on 6z run, interesting week ahead this week