MAY 2018 - Feelin Hot Hot Hot to end May
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srainhoutx
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We received our first real Seabreeze this afternoon in NW Harris County. Finally seeing some seasonal changes albeit weak of some isolated rain chances this coming week into Memorial Day weekend. Fingers Crossed!
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I think it just might rain today. The satellite and radar trends look good this morning.
RAIN! lol As predicted in the NW counties. Weird looked seabreeze/streamer showers, but I'll take it. Maybe some capping/ridging to the SE for now. Large Meso behind it, but am unsure whether we'll see a mass event here in CLL.
It may sag towards Houston between 4-8 pm.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION...Isolated showers are occurring near the coast this
morning. Expect these to continue for the next couple of hours...
moving NW. The main issue for today is an area of thunderstorms
that is expected to form around mid-day NW of CLL on an outflow
boundary. This area or cluster of storms is expected to move E/SE
into southeast Texas near CLL around 20Z and then continue to move
E/SE likely affecting UTS and then possibly reaching CXO and/or
IAH in the 22Z-02Z window. Expect weakening of the storms by early
eve, so for now, will have VCTS at IAH and southward as storms
may dissipate before they make it that far to the S/SE. 33
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/
DISCUSSION...
At 330 AM, radar is showing some action for a change and showers
are streaming in from Matagorda Bay into Jackson county.
Additional streamer showers will be possible this morning but more
robust activity is expected late this afternoon. A weak short
wave rotating around a long wave trough near CA will move into the
area this afternoon and produce scattered shra/tsra. A
southeastward moving outflow boundary over North Texas will move
toward the region this afternoon and also bring scattered
shra/tsra. The two individual areas of storms look like they will
phase into one complex over the Brazos Valley late this afternoon.
Jet dynamics remain favorable with a splitting 300 mb jet
structure. Forecast soundings show PW values reaching 1.90 inches
near KCLL with CAPE values above 3000 J/Kg, steep lapse rates and
inverted V signature. SPC has outlooked part of the area in
Marginal Risk for severe storms later today. Some of the stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail and gusty
winds. Will mention severe in the weather grids for the NW zones
for late this afternoon and this evening. The storms will weaken
by mid evening as they move E-SE and will likely diminish before
reaching rainfall starved coastal areas. Temperatures today will
trend cooler today primarily due to more cloud cover and cooler
850 temps as the upper ridge retreats slightly. Houston has had 8
consecutive days with 90 degree temps and will forecast a high of
90 degrees today. Precipitation should end around 03z with the
loss of heating and the exit of the short wave but clouds will
linger for a good part of the night.
The upper ridge tries to build back in on Monday but 500 mb
heights look low enough for daytime heating and the sea breeze to
generate isolated to scattered shra/tsra. PW values remain between
1.5-1.6 inches and convective temperatures are in the upper 80`s
which looks more than obtainable. Tuesday looks drier and the
sounding profiles reveal very dry air above 850 mb. Coverage
should be less but models show a weak short wave moving into the
area so will maintain a slight chance of precipitation.
500 mb heights climb back to 588 dm by Wednesday night as the
upper ridge amplifies and builds back over Texas. Heights begin to
fall on Thursday and Friday as a weakness over the Gulf deepens
and shifts slowly west. How close this features get will
eventually determine rain chances for the end of the week. This
time, the eastern half of the CWA is favored for rainfall as PW
values climb to 1.7-1.8 inches and heights fall. The ECMWF is
stronger with the upper trough over the Gulf and leaned toward
this solution. Ultimately the deepening trough will allow the
ridge over northern Mexico to expand over Texas bringing very warm
temperatures back to the area for the Memorial Day holiday. 43
It may sag towards Houston between 4-8 pm.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
630 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018
.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION...Isolated showers are occurring near the coast this
morning. Expect these to continue for the next couple of hours...
moving NW. The main issue for today is an area of thunderstorms
that is expected to form around mid-day NW of CLL on an outflow
boundary. This area or cluster of storms is expected to move E/SE
into southeast Texas near CLL around 20Z and then continue to move
E/SE likely affecting UTS and then possibly reaching CXO and/or
IAH in the 22Z-02Z window. Expect weakening of the storms by early
eve, so for now, will have VCTS at IAH and southward as storms
may dissipate before they make it that far to the S/SE. 33
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/
DISCUSSION...
At 330 AM, radar is showing some action for a change and showers
are streaming in from Matagorda Bay into Jackson county.
Additional streamer showers will be possible this morning but more
robust activity is expected late this afternoon. A weak short
wave rotating around a long wave trough near CA will move into the
area this afternoon and produce scattered shra/tsra. A
southeastward moving outflow boundary over North Texas will move
toward the region this afternoon and also bring scattered
shra/tsra. The two individual areas of storms look like they will
phase into one complex over the Brazos Valley late this afternoon.
Jet dynamics remain favorable with a splitting 300 mb jet
structure. Forecast soundings show PW values reaching 1.90 inches
near KCLL with CAPE values above 3000 J/Kg, steep lapse rates and
inverted V signature. SPC has outlooked part of the area in
Marginal Risk for severe storms later today. Some of the stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail and gusty
winds. Will mention severe in the weather grids for the NW zones
for late this afternoon and this evening. The storms will weaken
by mid evening as they move E-SE and will likely diminish before
reaching rainfall starved coastal areas. Temperatures today will
trend cooler today primarily due to more cloud cover and cooler
850 temps as the upper ridge retreats slightly. Houston has had 8
consecutive days with 90 degree temps and will forecast a high of
90 degrees today. Precipitation should end around 03z with the
loss of heating and the exit of the short wave but clouds will
linger for a good part of the night.
The upper ridge tries to build back in on Monday but 500 mb
heights look low enough for daytime heating and the sea breeze to
generate isolated to scattered shra/tsra. PW values remain between
1.5-1.6 inches and convective temperatures are in the upper 80`s
which looks more than obtainable. Tuesday looks drier and the
sounding profiles reveal very dry air above 850 mb. Coverage
should be less but models show a weak short wave moving into the
area so will maintain a slight chance of precipitation.
500 mb heights climb back to 588 dm by Wednesday night as the
upper ridge amplifies and builds back over Texas. Heights begin to
fall on Thursday and Friday as a weakness over the Gulf deepens
and shifts slowly west. How close this features get will
eventually determine rain chances for the end of the week. This
time, the eastern half of the CWA is favored for rainfall as PW
values climb to 1.7-1.8 inches and heights fall. The ECMWF is
stronger with the upper trough over the Gulf and leaned toward
this solution. Ultimately the deepening trough will allow the
ridge over northern Mexico to expand over Texas bringing very warm
temperatures back to the area for the Memorial Day holiday. 43
SPC's Thunderstorm Outlooks look promising: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/
Note: The Thunderstorm Outlook depicts the expected geographic areas of thunderstorms including 10, 40 and 70 percent probabilities in 4 or 8 hour time periods.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 6832157196
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 6832141459
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 6832124068
Note: The Thunderstorm Outlook depicts the expected geographic areas of thunderstorms including 10, 40 and 70 percent probabilities in 4 or 8 hour time periods.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 6832157196
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 6832141459
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/ ... 6832124068
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19622
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Sunday morning briefing from Jeff:
Chance for strong thunderstorms this afternoon with heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Short wave trough over TX this morning has sparked numerous thunderstorms from Dallas to west of Austin. Cells west of I-35 have produced a confirmed tornado near Georgetown this morning. Activity is slowing building into a complex of storms and this is strongly supported by recent high resolution guidance most notably the HRRR. Air mass over SE TX is becoming increasingly unstable with morning heating and the weakening of the strong ridge axis which has been situated over the area for the last week. This ridging is strongest near the coast and weakest inland and expect the incoming complex of storms over C TX to continue to increase in intensity and coverage as they move toward the Brazos Valley by early to mid afternoon.
Past mid afternoon the complex will drift ESE/SE into SE TX and gradually begin to weaken as it moves into a more stable environment near the coast. Storms could make it as far SE as US 59 this evening. Moisture levels have certainly been increasing since late Friday and will peak this afternoon over the area. Heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms, but recent dry weather should preclude any significant flooding threat.
Could see a few pulse severe storms produce an isolated damaging wind or large hail report mainly NW of a line from Huntsville to Columbus this afternoon/evening.
Expect a low level outflow boundary to settle near the coast late tonight and with the inland movement of the seabreeze on Monday low level convergence may produce a round of seabreeze storms.
Ridge will try to build back into the region from NE MX toward the middle of the week, but does not appear to be able to establish as strong a foothold as last week which will keep at least some rain chances in the forecast this upcoming week.
Chance for strong thunderstorms this afternoon with heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Short wave trough over TX this morning has sparked numerous thunderstorms from Dallas to west of Austin. Cells west of I-35 have produced a confirmed tornado near Georgetown this morning. Activity is slowing building into a complex of storms and this is strongly supported by recent high resolution guidance most notably the HRRR. Air mass over SE TX is becoming increasingly unstable with morning heating and the weakening of the strong ridge axis which has been situated over the area for the last week. This ridging is strongest near the coast and weakest inland and expect the incoming complex of storms over C TX to continue to increase in intensity and coverage as they move toward the Brazos Valley by early to mid afternoon.
Past mid afternoon the complex will drift ESE/SE into SE TX and gradually begin to weaken as it moves into a more stable environment near the coast. Storms could make it as far SE as US 59 this evening. Moisture levels have certainly been increasing since late Friday and will peak this afternoon over the area. Heavy rainfall will be possible with these storms, but recent dry weather should preclude any significant flooding threat.
Could see a few pulse severe storms produce an isolated damaging wind or large hail report mainly NW of a line from Huntsville to Columbus this afternoon/evening.
Expect a low level outflow boundary to settle near the coast late tonight and with the inland movement of the seabreeze on Monday low level convergence may produce a round of seabreeze storms.
Ridge will try to build back into the region from NE MX toward the middle of the week, but does not appear to be able to establish as strong a foothold as last week which will keep at least some rain chances in the forecast this upcoming week.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Those areas in Central and West Texas could use the rain.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMa ... or.aspx?TX
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMa ... or.aspx?TX
WHat about the Beaumont area? Or are we too far east for possible showers? We are in dire mode for rain here. Amazing that 8 months ago we had 47” of rain fall in my area and now we are begging for rain and are now in drought conditions.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=
it's like music for the soul, even if we don't get a lot of rain the cloud cover is most welcome
it's like music for the soul, even if we don't get a lot of rain the cloud cover is most welcome
Yes it is.unome wrote:http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=
it's like music for the soul, even if we don't get a lot of rain the cloud cover is most welcome
https://www.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... us&type=wv
Nada over here south of town. Just a blast furnace with high temps and gusty winds.
none of the gauges right near us show any precip, but we got dumped on for a short while - feeling thankful
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-48
https://www.harriscountyfws.org/
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0Q-1-48
Large cell from the 290/99 interchange to Magnolia.
NW wind here - thought it was an outflow boundary, but it looks like inflow into a Brenham to College Station cell. Potential feast from a cold core beast.
NW wind here - thought it was an outflow boundary, but it looks like inflow into a Brenham to College Station cell. Potential feast from a cold core beast.
yup - told the kid to move his car into the garage & asked the husband to hold off on trying to drive home til it passesDoctorMu wrote:Large cell from the 290/99 interchange to Magnolia.
NW wind here - thought it was an outflow boundary, but it looks like inflow into a Brenham to College Station cell. Potential feast from a cold core beast.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?pa ... colorbars=
http://traffic.houstontranstar.org/laye ... e&nmd=true
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srainhoutx
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Will need to monitor left over boundaries across our Region tomorrow for additional storms possibly more into Metro Houston and points closer to the Coast.
Also with a busy Memorial Day Weekend ahead next weekend, eyes may need to turn toward our S in the NW Caribbean Sea early this week and into the Gulf as the Long Holiday Weekend kicks off. The Weather Prediction Center suggests a weak low pressure system just S of Louisiana. The 12Z ECMWF suggests a very slow moving heavy rainfall maker crawling along the Louisiana Gulf Coast toward the Sabine River. Still far to much uncertainty in the extended range sensible weather forecast to get excited about, but we're monitoring.
Also with a busy Memorial Day Weekend ahead next weekend, eyes may need to turn toward our S in the NW Caribbean Sea early this week and into the Gulf as the Long Holiday Weekend kicks off. The Weather Prediction Center suggests a weak low pressure system just S of Louisiana. The 12Z ECMWF suggests a very slow moving heavy rainfall maker crawling along the Louisiana Gulf Coast toward the Sabine River. Still far to much uncertainty in the extended range sensible weather forecast to get excited about, but we're monitoring.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx
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Update from Jeff:
Slow moving heavy rainfall developing over the area this afternoon.
Doppler radar and HCFCD gages show recent 1 hour rainfall totals of 2-3 inches over extreme NW Harris County into N Waller and SW Montgomery Counties.
Radar shows slow moving and at times training heavy rainfall in SSW to NNE bands from Magnolia to near Hockley and another bands slowing developing from Brenham to around Hempstead. Storms are showing some degree of organization and will need to monitor to continued increase in both organization and intensity over the next few hours.
Slow storm motions are resulting in rapid rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches in a short period of time. While grounds are dry, intense short term rainfall rates will yield run-off as the ground simply is unable to absorb the rainfall in such a short period of time.
Given the rainfall that has already fallen and the upstream radar trends…an additional 1-2 inches will be possible over this area with isolated storm totals nearing 4-5 inches over portions of SW Montgomery County and NW Harris County.
Slow moving heavy rainfall developing over the area this afternoon.
Doppler radar and HCFCD gages show recent 1 hour rainfall totals of 2-3 inches over extreme NW Harris County into N Waller and SW Montgomery Counties.
Radar shows slow moving and at times training heavy rainfall in SSW to NNE bands from Magnolia to near Hockley and another bands slowing developing from Brenham to around Hempstead. Storms are showing some degree of organization and will need to monitor to continued increase in both organization and intensity over the next few hours.
Slow storm motions are resulting in rapid rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches in a short period of time. While grounds are dry, intense short term rainfall rates will yield run-off as the ground simply is unable to absorb the rainfall in such a short period of time.
Given the rainfall that has already fallen and the upstream radar trends…an additional 1-2 inches will be possible over this area with isolated storm totals nearing 4-5 inches over portions of SW Montgomery County and NW Harris County.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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MontgomeryCoWx
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2.6 inches here!
Beats 95, humidity and sun.
Beats 95, humidity and sun.
Team #NeverSummer
looking at a wind change here soon
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0U-1-12
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0S-1-12
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0U-1-12
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/in ... X-N0S-1-12
So far I've measured .44" with more on the way. I'm so happy to see some good rainfall for us.
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srainhoutx
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Getting a bit concerned with the cell mergers over Waller/NW Harris and Montgomery Counties. An additional 3 to 5 inches could bring rises to our Creeks and Bayous.
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0176
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
547 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO SERN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 202147Z - 210200Z
SUMMARY...PERIODS OF TRAINING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH 02Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE URBANIZED HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA.
DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A LONG-LIVED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON BELTWAY WESTWARD TO
JUST NORTH OF COTULLA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS A
SMALL BOWING COMPLEX MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT ROUGHLY 25
KT...WHILE FARTHER EAST... SLOWER MOVING CELLS WITH EMBEDDED
TRAINING WAS OCCURRING. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED KHGX
RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR LOCATED BETWEEN
COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON. VAD WIND PLOTS FROM CRP AND HGX
SHOWED ~30 KT AT 850 MB FROM THE SOUTH...OVERRUNNING THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AMID A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
HOUSTON IS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TRANSLATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO HARRIS AND FORT BEND COUNTIES WITH
RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2-3 IN/HR.
FARTHER WEST...THE STEADY MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SMALL
BOWING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF REPEATING ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
ONE LARGE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THE VERY HIGH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...4+ INCHES IN 3 HOURS...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES AND/OR SEE RUNOFF ISSUES DESPITE THE HIGH
FFG GIVEN THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES BEING OBSERVED.
OTTO
ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
547 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TO SERN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 202147Z - 210200Z
SUMMARY...PERIODS OF TRAINING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH 02Z WITH AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO
5 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE URBANIZED HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA.
DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACED A LONG-LIVED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM JUST NORTHWEST OF THE HOUSTON BELTWAY WESTWARD TO
JUST NORTH OF COTULLA. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WAS A
SMALL BOWING COMPLEX MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT ROUGHLY 25
KT...WHILE FARTHER EAST... SLOWER MOVING CELLS WITH EMBEDDED
TRAINING WAS OCCURRING. LOCAL OBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED KHGX
RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3 IN/HR LOCATED BETWEEN
COLLEGE STATION AND HOUSTON. VAD WIND PLOTS FROM CRP AND HGX
SHOWED ~30 KT AT 850 MB FROM THE SOUTH...OVERRUNNING THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AMID A STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH THE
GREATEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/DIFFLUENCE FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
CONTINUED SLOW BUT STEADY MOVEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
HOUSTON IS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT
TRANSLATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO HARRIS AND FORT BEND COUNTIES WITH
RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 2-3 IN/HR.
FARTHER WEST...THE STEADY MOVEMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SMALL
BOWING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OFF TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST...ALONG WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF REPEATING ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW
MOVING STORMS ALREADY IN PLACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
ONE LARGE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR FLASH FLOODING IS THE VERY HIGH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...4+ INCHES IN 3 HOURS...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES AND/OR SEE RUNOFF ISSUES DESPITE THE HIGH
FFG GIVEN THE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES BEING OBSERVED.
OTTO
ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...LCH...SHV...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
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