Tracking the Tropics:

[Andrew]

I would assume that, as of the 18Z GFS model run, you're not very hopeful of that anymore, are you, Andrew?

As of right now I still think central and east coast will have the highest chance to see this storm. GFS is still the only one that has such a far west solution and the 18z GEFS shows central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Still time to watch though and lets see if the westward trend continues.

I kinda think the GFS's scenario is a little way, way out there. Farfetched, in other words. Wouldn't you agree?

The storm won't stay that weak in the gulf. What catches my eye is the stronger ridging over the east coast. Honestly, every model run 500mb is what I am looking at the most. That will make all the difference in my opinion. As of now though the GFS is an outlier.

[Skyguy]

The storm won't stay that weak in the gulf. What catches my eye is the stronger ridging over the east coast. Honestly, every model run 500mb is what I am looking at the most. That will make all the difference in my opinion. As of now though the GFS is an outlier.

Exactly. The GFS's keeping the storm weak makes this 18Z run questionable. Although, if the 00Z run shows it going into SE TX again, but stronger......well, we all know the drill.

[Rip76]

I don't think it's too far fetched with that ridge.

But no way it stays that weak in the gulf, unless shear is just nuts.

[Andrew]

The storm won't stay that weak in the gulf. What catches my eye is the stronger ridging over the east coast. Honestly, every model run 500mb is what I am looking at the most. That will make all the difference in my opinion. As of now though the GFS is an outlier.

Exactly. The GFS's keeping the storm weak makes this 18Z run questionable. Although, if the 00Z run shows it going into SE TX again, but stronger......well, we all know the drill.

Even if it shows the same thing tonight don't be too concerned right now. This is very far out.

[worrybug]

I don't think it's too far fetched with that ridge.

But no way it stays that weak in the gulf, unless shear is just nuts.

Then in your opinion this IS a Texas threat, perhaps another storm like Rita?

[jeff]

Ridging...ridging...ridging! The more and stronger ridging...the more west it will go. Ensembles were showing this yesterday and the ops runs are now showing this today. Use the upper air pattern and the ensembles and don't focus on the flip flopping operational runs. Starting to see some decent track agreement into the SE/E Gulf via S FL or the keys. Intensity is still all over the place.

[Skyguy]

Ridging...ridging...ridging! The more and stronger ridging...the more west it will go. Ensembles were showing this yesterday and the ops runs are now showing this today. Use the upper air pattern and the ensembles and don't focus on the flip flopping operational runs. Starting to see some decent track agreement into the SE/E Gulf via S FL or the keys. Intensity is still all over the place.

Not that it means anything right now, but---Invest 99L sure is making New Orleans nervous. Here.....

rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
404 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Once again only small adjustments made to the forecast with this
package. Generally isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day, with the best chances Wednesday and Thursday as some
deeper moisture moves through the area and mid/upper ridging
begins to move away from the area. Temperatures will continue to
be near or slightly above normal.

Going into Friday and the weekend, some slightly drier air works
its way back into the area and this should bring rain chances down
into the 10 to 20 percent range for most of the area.

Beyond the weekend, the forecast begins to depend on what happens
with the swirl of clouds currently known as invest 99L. Models
continue to struggle with the handling of this system, as they are
apt to do before a surface low pressure center develops. 12z
solutions show anything from an open wave to a strong hurricane
with locations similarly varied. Seeing as any kind of local
impact is on the very tail end of the forecast period and there is
plenty of time to iron out the details as the system develops (or
not), have continued to carry a general blend of available
guidance at this time which results in scattered convection with
slightly warmer than normal temperatures.

[Andrew]

Ridging...ridging...ridging! The more and stronger ridging...the more west it will go. Ensembles were showing this yesterday and the ops runs are now showing this today. Use the upper air pattern and the ensembles and don't focus on the flip flopping operational runs. Starting to see some decent track agreement into the SE/E Gulf via S FL or the keys. Intensity is still all over the place.

Not that it means anything right now, but---Invest 99L sure is making New Orleans nervous. Here.....

rea Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
404 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Once again only small adjustments made to the forecast with this
package. Generally isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day, with the best chances Wednesday and Thursday as some
deeper moisture moves through the area and mid/upper ridging
begins to move away from the area. Temperatures will continue to
be near or slightly above normal.

Going into Friday and the weekend, some slightly drier air works
its way back into the area and this should bring rain chances down
into the 10 to 20 percent range for most of the area.

Beyond the weekend, the forecast begins to depend on what happens
with the swirl of clouds currently known as invest 99L. Models
continue to struggle with the handling of this system, as they are
apt to do before a surface low pressure center develops. 12z
solutions show anything from an open wave to a strong hurricane
with locations similarly varied. Seeing as any kind of local
impact is on the very tail end of the forecast period and there is
plenty of time to iron out the details as the system develops (or
not), have continued to carry a general blend of available
guidance at this time which results in scattered convection with
slightly warmer than normal temperatures.


Anyone?

I don't read any concern right now. Just acknowledging 99l and that a threat exists for somewhere along the gulf coast over the next couple weeks. They are just letting the public know.

[srainhoutx]

Meanwhile 75,000 of my neighbors are getting a taste of no electricity due to a fire at a Centerpoint Sub Station on Kluge Rd. Perhaps a good reminder to check those generators and make sure you are prepared. #ItOnlyTakesOne

[Skyguy]

I don't read any concern right now. Just acknowledging 99l and that a threat exists for somewhere along the gulf coast over the next couple weeks. They are just letting the public know.

Actually, I meant to say they're interested. I sincerely hope this doesn't come up in OUR Houston AFDs, though.

Question: Are our increasing rain chances related indirectly to 99L?

[Skyguy]

Meanwhile 75,000 of my neighbors are getting a taste of no electricity due to a fire at a Centerpoint Sub Station on Kluge Rd. Perhaps a good reminder to check those generators and make sure you are prepared. #ItOnlyTakesOne

Maybe a dress rehearsal for the 18z GFS scenario?

[Skyguy]

This should get the board going.

Yeah especially the 2 familiar evening/night posters of late...
This invest has my attention, but maybe the west trend will end and it will go back east, it usually does.

Yea models are still all over the place but are starting to slowly trend to a consensus.

You mean regarding development?

[Andrew]

Yeah especially the 2 familiar evening/night posters of late...
This invest has my attention, but maybe the west trend will end and it will go back east, it usually does.

Yea models are still all over the place but are starting to slowly trend to a consensus.

You mean regarding development?

Well track and intensity (so everything). I am mainly paying attention to the synoptic setup right now

[Skyguy]

Well track and intensity (so everything). I am mainly paying attention to the synoptic setup right now

Miami is the place you ought to be, TexasBreeze.



National Weather Service Miami FL:

For the upcoming weekend...two active tropical systems, tropical
depression Fiona amd tropical storm Gaston are still being
followed by the National Hurricane Center, with both systems
expected to remain well away from Florida. However, a third
system, a developing tropical wave located a few hundred miles
east of the Leeward Islands, is currently drifting west-northwest
at 15 to 20 mph and is expected to approach the area of the
Bahamas during the next couple of days. This system will keep a
high level of uncertainty for the extended forecast, as it is too
early to determine if or how this system could influence our
weather in the Sat-Mon timeframe. The National Hurricane Center
gives this system a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone
formation through the next 5 days. We recommend the public to
remain well informed regarding the progress of this system with
the latest products from the National Hurricane Center and the
National Weather Service in Miami.


Now, imagine if those were OUR forecasters talking.

[Andrew]

Well track and intensity (so everything). I am mainly paying attention to the synoptic setup right now

Miami is the place you ought to be, TexasBreeze.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/mfl/ ... full16.gif

National Weather Service Miami FL:

For the upcoming weekend...two active tropical systems, tropical
depression Fiona amd tropical storm Gaston are still being
followed by the National Hurricane Center, with both systems
expected to remain well away from Florida. However, a third
system, a developing tropical wave located a few hundred miles
east of the Leeward Islands, is currently drifting west-northwest
at 15 to 20 mph and is expected to approach the area of the
Bahamas during the next couple of days. This system will keep a
high level of uncertainty for the extended forecast, as it is too
early to determine if or how this system could influence our
weather in the Sat-Mon timeframe. The National Hurricane Center
gives this system a 60 percent chance of tropical cyclone
formation through the next 5 days. We recommend the public to
remain well informed regarding the progress of this system with
the latest products from the National Hurricane Center and the
National Weather Service in Miami.


Now, imagine if those were OUR forecasters talking.

I posted that.

[Rip76]

That graphic has even moved south.

[worrybug]

Oh, no.....

[djjordan]

Plenty of time to watch these models, prepare (which is the message we need to tell everyone), and nail down more sensible forecasts as the days progress. Lots of pro mets watching 99L right now and as we get closer to the weekend and next week, we all will have a better idea of what is going to happen.

[Rip76]

DJ is dead on with this advice.

No time to worry, as this has not even developed yet.

[Ptarmigan]

Too early to tell at this time.