JUNE 2016: Showers/Storms Possible

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unome
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
858 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.UPDATE...
5 to 7 inches of rain has fallen along the Spring and Cypress Creek watersheds tonight and this has renewed flooding along these channels. have not had much time to do analysis tonight but thought the TT WRF and RAP initialized well and will lean in their direction overnight into Thursday. Regrettably, this will portend very high rain chances later tonight into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms expected to redevelop between 08-10z and expand in coverage and intensity by 12z. PW values progged to be near 2.00 inches and 300 mb winds split with a well defined speed max rotating into the area between 12-18z. Models show a strong signal for heavy rain. Will maintain the Flash Flood Watch and high PoPs. With area creeks and rivers near record levels and flash flood guidance around 2.00-2.50 inches per hour, it just won`t take much rain to create flooding issues. A very dangerous 24-30 hours shaping up for SE TX. Please be careful and avoid high water and flood prone areas. 43

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc.html
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Last edited by unome on Wed Jun 01, 2016 9:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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djjordan
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
916 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

TXZ200-213-214-020300-
CHAMBERS TX-LIBERTY TX-HARRIS TX-
916 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LIBERTY...NORTHWESTERN
CHAMBERS AND EAST CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...

AT 916 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BARRETT...MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHERN BAYTOWN...SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY...DAYTON...BARRETT...CHANNELVIEW...
HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...OLD RIVER-WINFREE...COVE...
SHELDON...HUNTERWOOD...NORTHSHORE...NORTHERN HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL...EL
DORADO / OATES PRAIRIE AND LAKE HOUSTON.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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djjordan
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT

* AT 924 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. THE STORMS ARE MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER IN THE
EVENING. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY
AREA BY 1100 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...DEER PARK...GALENA PARK...LIBERTY...DAYTON...BEACH CITY...
BARRETT...CHANNELVIEW...HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...
ANAHUAC...OLD RIVER-WINFREE...AMES...DAISETTA...HARDIN...KENEFICK...COVE
AND SHELDON.
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djjordan
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 944 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BAYTOWN...LIBERTY...DAYTON...BEACH CITY...BARRETT...CHANNELVIEW...
HIGHLANDS...CLOVERLEAF...CROSBY...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...OLD
RIVER-WINFREE...AMES...DAISETTA...HARDIN...KENEFICK...COVE...SHELDON...
NORTHSHORE AND NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL.
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~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
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jasons2k
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5.05" here today.
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Ptarmigan
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With hurricane season looming................

Some of the heaviest rains came from tropical systems. :shock: :o
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Ptarmigan
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unome wrote:Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
858 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.UPDATE...
5 to 7 inches of rain has fallen along the Spring and Cypress Creek watersheds tonight and this has renewed flooding along these channels. have not had much time to do analysis tonight but thought the TT WRF and RAP initialized well and will lean in their direction overnight into Thursday. Regrettably, this will portend very high rain chances later tonight into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms expected to redevelop between 08-10z and expand in coverage and intensity by 12z. PW values progged to be near 2.00 inches and 300 mb winds split with a well defined speed max rotating into the area between 12-18z. Models show a strong signal for heavy rain. Will maintain the Flash Flood Watch and high PoPs. With area creeks and rivers near record levels and flash flood guidance around 2.00-2.50 inches per hour, it just won`t take much rain to create flooding issues. A very dangerous 24-30 hours shaping up for SE TX. Please be careful and avoid high water and flood prone areas. 43

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/sc.html
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That is quite impressive on satellite.
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TexasBreeze
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It's already starting to redevelop to the south.
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ticka1
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storms here in Baytown with lots of thunder and lightning!
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djjordan
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TexasBreeze wrote:It's already starting to redevelop to the south.
Monitoring that closely TexasBreeze. Not sure if that is what is going to be the beginning of the overnight development or not. Time will tell.
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djjordan
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ticka1 wrote:storms here in Baytown with lots of thunder and lightning!

Looks like those storms have put down a good swath of 2-3+" in your neck of the woods Ticka1
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DoctorMu
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Andrew wrote:Another one

"Flash Flood Watch in effect for all of SE TX until Friday evening.

***This is a potentially dangerous flash flood event for the state of TX***

If anyone needs to see the ability of this air mass to produce extreme rainfall totals…6 inches in 3-hrs over Spring this evening should be proof.

A slow moving upper level low will drift into TX Thursday and stall across SC and SE TX Thursday through Saturday before shearing out to the NE. Air mass is already tropical with PWS of 1.8 inches plus and a saturated profile. Overall nature of the event will transition the upper level feature to a warm core mid level feature as the low sits and spins in a tropical air mass. Low will gradually take on tropical type characteristics. Setup is highly favorable for excessive rainfall and flash flooding given deep layer tropical moisture, slow storm motions, focusing boundaries, and good upper level divergence. This all points to high rain chances and flooding rainfall. Such “tropical” type systems like to focus their heavy rainfall in the overnight hours…so this will be something to keep an eye on over the next 2-3 nights.

As usual the fine details will determine the areas that see the “large rainfall totals” and they could certainly be very high given 2-3 inch per hour rates that could last a few hour or longer. Small scale boundaries will determine where such rainfall occurs.

Will go with 3-5 inches widespread across much of the area with isolated totals of 8-12 inches. Could even justify higher totals than that given the air mass and what we have seen over the last six weeks.

Rainfall of this magnitude on saturated grounds and flooding watershed is placing the region in a dire situation. There is simply nowhere for the water to go and run-off will be maximized across the region. I am very concerned with the potential for new and worsened river flooding and flooding on the creeks and bayous in Harris County. "

Excellent point about the focal nature of these storms. The Big One could be anywhere...and these puppies can soak without daytime heating.
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djjordan
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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HARRIS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL CHAMBERS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1103 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN PASADENA...SOUTHERN BAYTOWN...LA PORTE...DEER PARK...BEACH
CITY...EASTERN SOUTH BELT / ELLINGTON...NORTHERN CLEAR LAKE...
SHOREACRES...MORGAN'S POINT...SAN JACINTO STATE PARK AND HOUSTON SHIP
CHANNEL.
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houstonia
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9:30 PM update from Jeff Lindner (sorry - I am posting a bit late):

Cluster of excessive rainfall is pushing slowly ESE into E and SE Harris County.

Rainfall over the last 4-5 hours has averaged 5.5-6.0 inches along I-45 from Spring to The Woodlands with a large area of 3.5-4.5 inches over middle and lower Cypress Creek to lower Willow Creek into southern Montgomery County.

Cypress Creek: minor flooding is in progress along the creek from Stuebner Airline downstream to Spring Creek. Expect low lying areas and some roads near the creek to be impacted, but not looking at any house flooding from the creek at this time.

Spring Creek: rise to flood stage at I-45 then crest and fall…rain was focused nearly right over the gage location, so not much upstream to come down.

Willow Creek: high on the lower end, but will crest and fall overnight below flood stage.

Greens Bayou: should crest below flood stage upper end through Greenspoint, may reach near flood stage at US 59 late tonight.

Garners Bayou: crest below floods stage.

West Fork of the San Jacinto River: river is already over flood stage and has begun a new rise as run-off from Cypress and Spring Creeks move downstream. New forecast from the RFC including the rainfall this evening takes the river back to near major flood levels on Thursday. This would likely impact roadways into areas that were heavily flooded last weekend.
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ticka1
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major storm ongoing for 1 hr 33 minutes now - baytown - mont belvieu
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ticka1
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major storm ongoing for 1 hr 33 minutes now - baytown - mont belvieu
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djjordan
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ticka1 wrote:major storm ongoing for 1 hr 33 minutes now - baytown - mont belvieu

Can see on radar that you have some merging between storms right over Baytown with storms coming in off the bay. That is what is keeping this storm alive right now. Hopefully it'll calm down soon . Wouldn't be surprised to see another Flood Advisory issued for your area as the current one expires at midnight. Radar estimates and Harris county Flood gauges put anywhere from 2.5" - 3.5" of rain has fallen in that area as of this time. Stay dry!!! :)
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djjordan
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Watching radar closely overnight tonight and all day Thursday...... I'm expecting development to happen in the next few hours around our area and spread areawide. Thursday is shaping up to be a rough day for SE Texas.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1157 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2016

.AVIATION...
Difficult forecast. However, things are starting to come together
for rain and thunderstorms to become the main aviation hazard on
Thursday. The timing and strength of storms is the more difficult
part of the forecast. Better confidence for the first 12 to 18
hours of the forecast than from the earlier forecast package.

The upper low over the TX/NM border will slowly move across the
state tonight and Thursday. Expect rain and thunderstorms to
become more widespread late tonight and Thursday morning. The
global models are keeping the rain and thunderstorms in place
through the afternoon and into Thursday night as the upper low
meanders overhead.

Impacts will be thunderstorms with generally VFR conditions;
although, there is a chance for MVFR or lower conditions.
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djjordan
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0285
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 020612Z - 021212Z

SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING AND/OR TRAINING CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACH FROM THE WEST...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS
SNOWS PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WITH MUCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. 00Z SOUNDING FROM CRP SHOWED WEAK
WINDS (10-15 KTS) FROM THE SFC THROUGH 6 KM AGL -- SUGGESTING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW MOVING CELLS. WITH THE MEAN FLOW
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-PARALLEL TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION ...TRAINING OR BACK-BUILDING CELLS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY...RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS
AND FLASH-FLOODING. WHILE DIFFERING ON THE DETAILS...SEVERAL OF
THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE MEMBERS...SHOW ADDITIONAL LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 2-4 INCHES THROUGH 12 UTC.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...



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Andrew
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Multiple MCSs over southwestern Texas and models indicate those will persist overnight as they slowly track eastward. In the morning we will see how these interact with each other over SE Texas.
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